Greetings All,
Was intrigued by the hype cycle of the media this week. Carlton, Sydney, St Kilda and Melbourne all sit at 4 wins from 10 games however according to the media all their chances of making finals all revolved around their performance last week. Melbourne and Sydney have “turned the corner” and are threats again while the Saints and Blues are gorn! Essendon sit a game ahead of them all with a game in hand and seem even more gorn, with ructions becoming feisty – or maybe a touch of muckraking. Then there is the forgotten team Freo, also sitting on four wins and did what everyone was waiting for and won away from home. The reality is they are all untrustworthy and inconsistent and to become a threat need to get on a run like the Hawks, Blues and Giants have done in the last two seasons. To do that you need to be healthy and the healthiest of them currently is Melbourne!
What will the scribes be screaming about this week.
Love to have a Beer with (55%) vs All Bailieyed Up (45%)
The clash of domestic pets has a bit more spice to it this year with the Bailey Smith sideshow being Mannagh from heaven for the media scrum. The Dogs have a couple of Baileys left that go OK to. Great for the Cats to celebrate Mitch Duncan’s 300th game – always playing his role for the team with aplomb. A glint in his eye not dissimilar to Simon the Likeable and just as deadly by foot and hand rarely putting the ball in opposition hands. Above all these two teams are coming off strong wins with victory here critical to stay with the upper echelon. Overlooked two weeks ago was the impressive the record GWS has at Kardinia Park. The Bulldogs have won their last two impressively here also after a long losing streak that stretched back to 2005. The return of Tom Stewart (unless he is Scott’s late change – again) will help Geelong however losing Dangerfield will put more focus on Cameron – mind you it didn’t matter last week snaring seven. The Dogs best has been as good as anyone’s, and we have seen a fair bit of it. It’s a line ball selection just think Geelong at home will have the advantage.
A Little too Late (87%) vs Book Ended (13%)
For the most part Essendon have been forthright about where they see themselves – while a couple of good wins excited the base, even they were taken as a sign they are on the right path. Not sure the mumblings from Paul Little do much to move them forward. While the Dogs gave them a good audit last week, they have the chance to respond this week against Richmond in the “Tell ‘em they’re Dreaming” game. The Tigers will need to find replacements at both ends with Noah Balta in detention and Tom Lynch dealing with concussion. Makes it more like a nightmare for Adem Yze, Essendon should be able to bounce back here.
The Squanderers (62%) vs Toby or not Toby (38%)
I watch the last encounter between these sides from a Roman balcony, fortunately a great view. It was the beginning of the end for the Blues 2024 season squandering a 33 point quarter time lead to go down by 12 points. They squandered another lead last week and have done so all year – the major issue being not getting value on the scoreboard for dominance in play. The Blues opposition have feasted on it – considering general play and field position a 30 point margin at quarter time last week would have been fair. Instead, it was only six as the Swans went forward infrequently but quickly and efficiently to score most times. Carlton usually responds well from such a loss – at least for a week. They host the Giants who have their own soul searching to do after losing at home to the Dockers. A great celebration and motivation with Toby Greene to play his 250th game. Not everyone’s favourite player, but a great loyal teammate with a sublime understanding of the game with skills to match. Both teams have been hit by injuries, Finn Callaghan will be missed for the Giants while the Blues will be hoping TDK and Jack Silvagni will be right to go. If they are then nervously select the Blues not to squander all their lead.
Sun Struck (73%) vs Demonised (27%)
Both the Hawks and Lions will be keen to atone for losses last week. The Hawks hold no fear of Brisbane winning their last five encounters – noting that none of them at the Gabba. This one is at the G so advantage Hawthorn. This won’t be about personnel availability although both sides should get some handy ones back. Hawthorn didn’t do too much wrong in Darwin and have a good chance to recover. The Lions are a concern with a Blues like capitulation in the final quarter last week. While Melbourne applied pressure all day and got their rewards late, some of the profligate use of the ball by Brisbane would be a huge worry for Fagan. They have been good enough for long enough in games to sit second, but if Hawthorn can maintain pressure for the whole game that spot will be shaky.
Yes Zur (3%) vs Do we have a Problem (97%)
Cam Zurhaar turned it on last week and was too hot for the Tigers to handled leading his team to a great win, slightly tougher this week against the ladder leaders. The Pies just have a couple of injury worries with Moore and Houston still to prove their fitness. Not sure it will matter – while the Roos scared the Pies last year, odds are slim it will happen again.
Action Jackson (87%) vs Carr Crash (13%)
Justin Longmuir has copped plenty this year, he put on a masterclass last week and deserves plenty of plaudits for that. Personnel changes were one thing and Jackson going solo in the ruck was superb. However, the alteration in the game style and entries into the forward line complete shut out the Giants defenders. He gets to practice back at home against Port, they are coming off a poor loss where Kenny has copped plenty. The question for Port is when do they call 2025 gone, do they make the change early or wait till the end of the year and give Josh Carr clear air into 2026. As for this one if Freo can get 60 forward 50 entries they won’t be losing and expect they might get there.
A Bit Foggy (99%) vs Was Allen the Key? (1%)
A few errors for the Crows gave the Pies enough of a break to make last week a relative blow out compared to their previous encounters, while disappointed in the loss they will know they can compete with the best. That is not who they are contending with week. Adelaide have picked over the Eagles in recent encounters winning their last five encounters with an average margin over 10 goals. The Eagles were solemn in their tribute to Adam Selwood and played well to get over the Saints with Allen back in the side. Suspect the recent history against the Crows will extend.
Back on Tracc (47%) vs A Warnering Sign (53%)
After a great win in Brisbane the Dees return to the G with Christian Petracca playing his 200th game, some great work from him last week! They host Sydney who got over the Blues with significant contributions from Heeney and Warner plus some clever coaching to get a couple of cheap goals. Suspect they will need similar again this week and doubt the Demons will allow them the same freedom as last week. Reckon the Dees will prevail and stamp themselves as the most dangerous team outside the eight.
Eagles Prey (25%) vs Top End Talent (75%)
St Kilda became the first victims of the Eagles, something Lyon will have his team keen to atone for. The host the Suns in the Loungeroom, they have once again conquered Darwin and look as complete a team as they ever have in their existence. On form it appears a simple choice. Only three weeks ago Freo entered the Loungeroom as worm favourites before the Saints not only put the clamps on them but scored heavily themselves. Lyon knows how to prepare a team to defend this venue, while Dimma has rarely hidden his thoughts on the place (I concur with him). Reckon the Suns will shine, but St Kilda will be much better than last week.
Go Blues,
Cheers, Sal
Read more of Sal’s pieces HERE.
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