This follows on from Part 1 of Sal’s Round 11 Preview which you can read HERE.
Greetings All,
Another huge performance from Chad Warner helped the Swans to victory, nevertheless a gallant effort from the Dogs who finished the game with three injuries. The loss of Richards and Naughton could have an impact on their chances in a couple of tough upcoming fixtures.
Bellerive (1%) vs Blowing the Horne (99%)
The Roos host Port in Hobart, they say they are getting closer to their next win. So is every other team and there is likely to happen before. Of little solace to them will be Jason Horne-Francis playing his 50th game.
In the Pitts (81%) vs NT Champs (19%)
The Blues season is teetering, injuries have cruelled and loss of Pittonet doesn’t help. However, they have also lacked dare to move the ball and noticeably effort was poor last week. It will need to change up against a rampant Gold Coast coming a pair of 10 goal wins in Darwin. The return of Witts could provide them the edge. Suspect the Blues will have addressed those fundamental issues and the return of Saad and Fogarty will assist and be enough to get the win in the Loungeroom.
No Danger (78%) vs Orange Slushie (22%)
A crucial game in the twilight zone with the faltering Cats and Giants facing off at Kardinia Park. Geelong gets a few key players back but are still without Dangerfield a missing ingredient in their current three game losing streak. The Giants are also spluttering and unable to move the ball with speed and precision we saw earlier in the year plus an expanding injury list. Dangerfield missing might give them an edge in the midfield, however the Cats are good on the rebound and don’t lose often at Kardinia Park.
Dream or Nightmare? (2%) vs Sack of Potatoes (98%)
What a reversal in fortunes for the Tigers and Bombers in 12 months! Essendon pulled off a surprise win in this game last year and were duly referred to as “a bunch of spuds” by the opposition coach after the game. As it turned out it was Dimma’s last as coach of Richmond. Not sure which root vegetable Brad Scott will be referring to the Tigers as but his team will be too good for them.
Byrned (18%) vs Brainless (82%)
While there were mistakes from the Hawks last week to see them succumb late, they did plenty right early in the game to show they are on the improve. The Lions in the Loungeroom will be a great test, they get a key player back in Zac Bailey at the expense of Brain. By the same token Sicily and Scrimshaw are handy inclusion for the Hawks and Gunston will know the opposition well. This is Brisbane’s home away from home with a 9-2 record here in the last 5 years and reckon this might be 10.
Out Leveraged (86%) vs Endowed (14%)
The Dees lost Lever last week and remains out this week, how much did it impact in the loss to the Eagles and can they cover him against the Saints. Based on the stats they should. St Kilda have struggled to impact the scoreboard with only 15 scoring shots last week including one from Paddy Dow in his club debut. The Dees have their own issues up forward however the inclusion of Van Rooyen helps and they should still score too heavily and win this one.
How Long is the Piece of String? (86%) vs Yeo Yo (14%)
Some sympathies for the Crows with the call of Rankine running too far with the footy, but there is no doubt he did. We just want them all to be called. The bigger issue for them is that Izak will spend a few weeks on the sidelines with the hamstring injury he got in the process. It doesn’t help them against the Eagles who get one of their best returning in Yeo to work along side the rampant Harley Reid. Nevertheless, they should get the job done at home.
Track Time
An off broadway fixture at Sandown in Melbourne while the Brisbane carnival keeps going with the Doomben Cup. Just looking at the Quaddie for Sandown we will go skinny in the opener and hope stay alive – if not there is always the treble kicking off in the next. Let’srollthedice (R7, #2) comes off a good win in Sydney and looks well suited here. We needed to be skinny there because the next is tough with plenty of good chances, rating Hard To Cross (R8, #9) the best of them with plenty in the quaddie. Cawdor (R9, #17) is well fancied in the penultimate in his first start here, has trialled well but need a couple more. The last is also pretty tough top pick being King Magnus (R10, #1) get a claim, well drawn and a good record here.
Leg 1 – 2, 7
Leg 2 – 2, 6, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13
Leg 3 – 4, 12, 17
Leg 4 – 1, 4, 7
126 Combinations so a $30 investment will return 23.8% of the dividend.
Doomben – Race 9 – Doomben Cup (G1, 2000m, WFA)
The favourite Kovalica (3) has been an untrustworthy conveyance and not a winner since the QLD Derby in May last year. Last start was encouraging but not sure the odds are quite right. Detonator Jack (4) is also in a winning drought but looks better value and gets JMac on board. Huetor (2) is looking for his third win in this race so has a liking for the journey while if the conditions are dry the O’Brien pair of Vow and Declare (5) and Young Werther (7) could be in the finish.
Selections – 4-3-2-7
Friar Time
A good weekend for the boys with all three teams saluting however the Girls could not deliver the fourth. This week the seniors and reserves head to Woodfull-Miller Oval to face MHSOB, the Unicorns are struggling this year but a loss at this venue last year cost the Friars a place in the finals. The women host Powerhouse in a game to keep them in contact with the leading pack. While the threes visit Canterbury as they look for their 4th win on the trot.
Go Blues, Go Friars
Cheers, Sal
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