Sal’s Preview – Round 11: Worth his Weight in Gold

Greetings All

What a magnificent effort from Scott Pendlebury, he will not just break the games record but smash through it. He has floated through the game with absolute class, skill and fairness. The gold number might be a bit over the top, but who cares? He deserves the accolades and the plaudits he is receiving. Have had the discussion about where he sits in the pantheon of greats. Even as the greatest Magpie. Invariably it is pointed out that he doesn’t have the dynamics or the flair of a Dusty, Gazza or Carey. Even for Collingwood he has not always been number one with the likes of Buckley, Swan, Daicos in the same team. It’s all opinion but longevity counts more than that, it’s longevity at high quality.

Plenty have questioned how the Pies have stage-managed his games to make this the event. Could not care less about that, it is completely the club and player’s choice on how they wanted to script this record breaking game. It should absolutely be a celebration of one of the greats of the game.

Then there is the “but”! That Pendles gets the profits from various marketing opportunities associated not being included in the salary cap opens Pandora’s Can of Worms. The media have jumped on board saying he deserves it for the effort he has put in, but they haven’t questioned what happens next? Dangerfield has 400 in his sights; Bontempelli, Gunston, Greene are all within reach of 300 games, why wouldn’t their clubs look at the opportunity to get them a bit more from merch marketing. Then where does it stop? I’ve got my Cripps 200 stubby holder? Already aware of one club where they are having such thoughts. That will be something for the AFL to sort out in a couple of years.

Book Ended (76%) vs Roo Cullers (24%)

The Hawks struggled without their Full Back and Full Forward last week and they remain on the sidelines. Chol will help fill the hole left by Gunston, not sure how they cover Barrass especially with Thilthorpe likely to return for Adelaide. Nash returning to the midfield will certainly help. The Crows were ruthless against North and appear to have their game in good order. Can they be good enough in the Launceston fortress? They were the last team to beat Hawthorn at the venue, but that was 12 matches ago in 2023. The best of the Crows wins this, however reckon the Launceston factor favours the Hawks to get back on the winning list.

Shades of Gray (24%) vs Not Quite Wright (76%)

The Friday double headers have been frustrating. Glad the “Tell ‘me they’re Dreamin’” game is not stand alone. The Tigers lose another in Campbell Gray but should have enough not to have to call in the VFL replacements. They face the Bombers who lose Peter Wright leaving their ruck stocks even thinner. It is being called a must win for Brad Scott. Have a suspicion we will find out as while the Tigers are struggling, they are energetic and the talent is raw. If they get a sniff, reckon they can win.

Pearced Off (95%) vs Wherever Hugo (5%)

Freo host the Saints and will still be without their skipper Alex Pearce, possibly not as problematic given the number of first choice forwards missing from the Saints line up. Higgins, Owens, King, Ryan all missing. No doubt Ross will try and put the clamps on and expect that wherever Serong goes Hugo Garcia will be right with him. The rucks of keen interest with TDK up against Luke Jackson. While Freo have a great winning streak going they tend to be putting those games away with 15-30 minutes of brilliance rather than a four quarter performance? Reckon it’s a nice problem to have and one that should put the Saints away.

Not So Larkey (27%) vs Darwin at the Double (73%)

A 13 goal streak from the Crows put the Roos away last week, begging the question as to where are the leaders to make a stand? Does Clarko need to find a role for the skipper in such a situation to lead them in the resistance and reversal? It will be tough to influence at Full Forward. They host the Suns this week coming off their Darwin Double. They have snuck their way into fourth place on the ladder by beating the teams they should. If they are genuine then North is a team they should beat, it will be a challenge in the Loungeroom but expect them to be up to it.

Mannagh from Heaven (72%) vs Off Rampe (28%)

We had the Grand Final Replay last week, is this a Grand Final preview? It was Mannagh from heaven as Geelong tore the Lions apart last week, a game plan executed to perfection. What do they have in store for Sydney this week? The Swans are rolling along over the last few weeks and just doing enough to keep the opposition at bay. They will need a more consistent effort to beat the Cats at Kardinia Park. Will again be without Rampe, rested last week only to find an underlying calf strain. The Cats will have close to their best 23, including Mitch Edwards who just might be a key to their hopes late in the year. He will be important here to negate Grundy. It’s a tough one to pick, but when in doubt the Cats usually win at home.

Pendlebury (99%) vs Reid About It (1%)

The Eagles have the role of Washington Generals up against Pendlebury and the Pies at the G. Plenty said about one milestone, the other of significance in this game is Harley Reid reaching 50 games. He took on the Giants last week and played one of his best games and will be a force to be reckoned with in years to come. And Dan Houston plays game 200. The Eagles were great last week but rarely put two together, they have been perfectly cast for their role here.

Zac (73%) vs Harry (27%)

Zac Butters and Harry McKay play game 150. Their trajectories differ. Butters is the hottest property in the game with no shortage of suitors, for the game’s sake hope he stays. Free agency is such a blight on the whole “competitive balance” thing. It has destroyed any semblance of balance. Harry has become almost the bellwether for the Blues, their form and results away with his form. Giving him opportunities up the ground seems to have provided greater spark and competitiveness. Which could be very important for this game. Was it just a Dead Cat Bounce? Or were they just playing against a wounded dog. No better test than against Port in Adelaide. The match-ups look OK for the Blues and every part of me wants to pick them. Then there is the appalling Adelaide Oval record that has me going the other way.

Swooped (22%) vs Clawed (78%)

What an important game for the Giants and Lions as they both come off very disappointing performances last week against the Eagles and Cats respectively. The Giants may get a couple back this week but their defensive lynch-pin Taylor still weeks away and sidekick Buckley in doubt. Brisbane should get their agent provocateur in Zorko back, he should not only stiffen the defense but add flair back to their ball movement. Expect the premiers to make amends for last week, but if they don’t the case for the defense is looking shaky.

Three Legged (34%) vs All the Kings Men (66%)

The Dogs were disappointing in going down to the Blues last week, however they are missing three of their best five players, their best player is hobbled and their most reliable defender is also out. They lose another in Bailey Williams this week, hopefully Tim English can pass all the tests and be ready to take on Mighty Max. Meanwhile the narrative on Melbourne has shifted as to whether the early form could be sustained to how many finals can they win? King has them playing fearless footy full of flair and fun. For the Dogs it is time that Bevo needs to be brave and set up a plan to combat and take away the Demon’s strengths. Come up with a way to counter Gawn, clamp down on Kosi, get more support for Bontempelli. They can win if it comes off, however as they are currently travelling Melbourne wins this.

Track Time

It’s Doomben Cup day in Brisbane while racing takes a back seat in Melbourne heading to Sandown. The track is likely to be rain affected but no better surface than Sandown so should be fair for all. For an off-season meeting it has attracted some handy types in large fields, but we will focus on the quaddie legs.

Sandown

Almost just the quaddie legs, the fourth has a couple of interesting runners to watch. In particular the King’s horse Gilded Water (R4, #3). Just missed out on getting a run in the Melbourne Cup suspect it is on trial before heading to Brisbane for some of their staying races.

The Quaddie opens with a tough 3YO event over 1600m, the 60kg is a lot but Highvol (R6, #1) got back on the winner’s list last start and is capable of going back to back. Currently at a good each way quote. Another one at value in the next Seafall (R7, #10) won its last two gets a 3kg claim and 3 from 7 in the soft. King Zephyr (R8, #13) is undefeated here and gets a good weight swing on his conqueror from last start. Preferred option in the closer is King Tut (R9, #18em2) was well supported last start and just could not make up ground. If he doesn’t get a run then happy to be on Duchess Zou (R9, #15) giving her a mulligan for the last start.

Quaddie

Leg 1 – 1, 4, 7, 9, 10

Leg 2 – 3, 6 10 11

Leg 3 – 2, 7, 9, 12, 13

Leg 4 – 5, 15, 18

300 Combinations (if they all run), a $30 investment will return 10% of the dividend

Doomben

Race 8 – Doomben Cup (G1, 2000m, WFA)

With record rains in SE QLD very worried about how this track will hold up, but assuming we get to a soft, how brave can Jenni be? Expect the same first four from the Hollindale to come up here with She’s a Hustler (7) to catch Pride of Jenni (6) before the line with Birdman (4) in between them. The extra 200m puts Half Yours (1) right in the mix.

Selections – 7 – 4 – 6 – 1

Go Blues,

Cheers, Sal