Round 1 – Sal’s Preview (Part 2): and his racing tips

Greetings All,

 

A great start to the season on the ground.  The Demons and Petracca playing a game eerily close to the one in September, while the Blues finally break the Tiger hoodoo.  The Pies were too steady for the Saints whose losing margin flattered them.  They were all entertaining games of footy made up of ebbs and flows rather than teams going goal for goal.

 

Great Scott ($1.66) vs Strung Out ($2.48)

 

A couple of fresh faces in the Cats line up but no real change to the core of the team that will see them roll the dice again with veterans, they take on the Bombers who are without their most influential player in Jake Stringer.  With the retirement of Hooker plus not having Jones and McDonald-Tipungwuti leaves them thin up forward, Two Metre Peter needs to stand up to his full height.  Geelong just look like…..Geelong, but for the inclusion of Stengle and Sam De Koning.  With that they should have too much class and talent for the Bombers.

 

Parramatta ($2.08) vs Paddy Power ($1.91)

 

Both these mobs have grand aspirations making this a significant game for both outfits.  They played a thriller in the finals last year which has left the Giants without Toby Greene for the first five matches this year.  Meanwhile Sydney have picked up a Number 1 draft selection by giving opportunity to Paddy McCartin, they look a settled line up.  Two big questions for this match and not entirely unrelated.  Can Buddy kick the five goals he needs to notch the thousand?  Who wins?  If he gets them – Sydney wins, if not it’s wide open.  I reckon he gets the five.

 

Holding the Fort ($1.43) vs Fine Wines ($3.25)

 

Darcy Fort could not crack the code to get the rack mantle at Geelong, he could be a very good foil teaming up with the Big O at Brisbane.  Joe won’t be required to ruck anymore, sometimes that is what he needs to do to get into the game.  Missing Eric Hipwood for much of the season will test the Lions.  They host Port who have the Brownlow Medallist who should be reaching his prime, a bit worried about a couple of aging vintages in Boak and Gray that might now be corked.  Would add Charlie Dixon to that but he not playing and was pretty rough anyway.  The Gabba gives a good advantage to the Lions.

 

Locked Out ($1.96) vs Noble’s Prize ($1.98)

 

The one thing the Hawks don’t is their captain out with Covid, unfortunately that’s what they need to deal with.  They take on the Kangas who will unveil Jason Horne-Francis as their bounty for last season.  They are still missing Ben Cunnington who we all hope can recover like Sam Docherty.  Just think the Roos have a bit more experience and can take this one.

 

Charddy Sippers ($1.80) vs Fyfe Stryfe ($2.22)

 

The Crows get home ground advantage against Freo who go in without their two most influential players in Fyfe and Darcy.  Crows should take this.

 

Samo ($2.32) vs Levi ($1.67)

 

A couple of ex-Blues go at each other with Petrevski-Seton joining West Coast and Levi Casboult have his career revived by Gold Coast.  They also get their skipper back with Jarrod Witts and Mabior Chol provides some big man athleticism.  West Coast are missing plenty but just think the back line looks solid with McGovern, Hurn and Barrass and suspect they should take the points at home.

 

Track Time

 

The big races conclude in Melbourne with the All Star Mile at Flemington while the Sydney carnival really gets moving with 5 group one events at Rosehill including the Golden Slipper

 

Flemington

 

Race 7 – The All Star Mile (1600m, WFA)

 

Either the concept or the timing is wrong for this race as once again we have a field with class at the top but a long tail.  Happy to be with I’m Thunderstruck (1) and hoping the pilot can extricate him from the inside draw and rattle home, he will have to get past Zaaki (2) which is never easy.  Inspirational Girl (12) got in the field by doing exactly that in the Blamey but meets him carrying an extra 4kg.  The 3 year olds Pinstripe (15) and Lightsaber (14) could cheeky races after promising runs in the Guineas.

 

Selections – 1-2-12-15

 

Rosehill

 

Race 5 – Ranvet Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)

 

Dominated by the champ, Verry Elleegant (5) should add another Group One to her lipstick case.  Montefillia (6) to make the exacta with Emisaary (4) an interesting runner.

 

Selections – 5-6-4-1

 

Race 6 – Rosehill Guineas (G1, 2000m, 3yo SW)

 

Anamoe (1) is a justified short favourite, but it is not cut and dried.  Converge (2) held him out last start not sure he can again with the extra distance.  Profondo (3) got it all wrong in Melbourne, will be much more comfortable travelling the other way.  While Forgot You (4) keeps on running well in the big races and will eventually salute.

 

Selections – 1-4-3-2

 

Race 7 – George Ryder Stakes (G1, 1500m, WFA)

 

Not quite as simple here going with the class of Collette (8) here with the services of JMac, his greatest foe Hugh Bowman rides Forbidden Love (9) in great form and the main danger.  Hilal (12) should be closing well and would rate Hungry Heart (10) higher but for the soft track.

 

Selections – 8-9-12-10

 

Race 8 – Golden Slipper (G1, 1200m, 2yo SW)

 

There has only been one dominant 2yo for the season in Coolangatta (8) so happy to stick with her in an open race.  Possibly a bit of bias here but reckon the Blue Diamond form will be competitive here and putting Jacquinot (5), Daumier (1) and Sebonack (6) in behind her.  Would have had Revolutionary Miss (9) in but for the wide draw.  Could have them all wrong.

 

Selections – 8-5-1-6

 

Race 9 – The Galaxy (G1, 1100m, HCP)

 

Joe Pride is pretty good at placing his sprinters fresh and did it with aplomb in the spring with Ballistic Lover (13), happy to take the punt he might do it again.  Perhaps getting Brooklyn Hustle (7) up to Sydney might put a stop to her good runs and produce a winning run.  Then Paulele (11) might complete a big day for GSOB especially if the inside chops out late in the day.  Then again perhaps I’ve missed the obvious in Isotope (8) who just keeps winning.

 

Selections – 13-7-11-8

 

Quaddie

 

Sticking to Flemington this week in a pretty difficult affair.  Will go skinny in the ASM to give us a few more later.

 

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 12

Leg 2 – 1, 4, 9, 10

Leg 3 – 1, 4, 6, 8, 12

Leg4 – 4, 5, 9, 11, 16

 

Makes the maths easy – 300 Combinations, $30 for 10%

 

Yay the Blues,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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