by George Grossek
Two elimination finals that were over a long way before the final siren. Adelaide didn’t give a yelp (again) and the Suns looked to have used up all of their energy the week before against Fremantle. This meant Brisbane and Hawthorn had relatively bruise free encounters so should be cherry ripe for this weekend.
We are now up to the penultimate week with Geelong taking on Hawthorn on Friday and Collingwood against Brisbane on the Saturday.
Hawthorn have been very predictable in their matches I have seen this year. In all of their wins they jumped the opposition at the start and quickly got four or five goals up and went on to control the game. Against the Giants, they almost blew a mammoth lead. They struggle to stem the tide when their game plan doesn’t work. The first ten to fifteen minutes will be crucial in this game and could well decide the winner. It comes down to who is likely to get first use of the ball with the six, six, six set up.
Meek is a monster in the ruck so Blicavs (or Stanley) will have to disrupt him. Geelong’s midfield smashed Brisbane’s in the qualifying final and if Smith and Holmes play well it will go a long way to winning the game for the Cats. Geelong’s players look big-bodied compared to the Hawks and this could go to their advantage as the Hawks could easily be brushed aside.
This will be a hard-fought match with Geelong most likely winning. The question will be how much damage is done in the game. No team wants sore players going into the Grand Final.
If Geelong wins, they won’t care who they play having demolished the Lions in the qualifying final and matching up well against the Pies. If Hawthorn wins they will be hoping for a Pies victory because I don’t see them beating the Lions based on the two times they played this year.
In Saturday’s game the Pies gave themselves the best chance of winning the flag by beating Adelaide in the qualifying final. The extra week’s rest will help them should they make the Grand Final.
The question will be which Brisbane turns up on Saturday. They have been too inconsistent throughout the year to tip them with any certainty. The thing I took most from their win against the Suns was Oscar McInerney. He was almost manic in his attack on the ball and ensured that Brisbane’s mids had first use of the ball. He is really doing all he can to get his hands on that premiership medal.
If Brisbane play to their best they will win and win well. They have more better players than Collingwood across all lines. Collingwood relies on their system and it could come down to if they have enough talls in defence. The ruck contest should be a beauty. Cameron has had a consistent year and will more than hold his own.
I have rated Brisbane as having the most complete team and maybe the week’s rest before the qualifying final had an effect on them. Against the Suns they were the Lions of old again. I have to stick with the Lions against the Pies.
My assessment of the Preliminary Finals
Geelong 75% chance of winning
Brisbane 66% chance of winning
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