NRL Week 1 Finals: The Road to the Finals – Part One
WARNING
This story comes with a warning that the tipster who wrote this story (Mattress) was in 3 Tipping Competitions. He came 13th of 26 in Herls Tipping Comp, 21st of 32 in the Almanac NRL Comp and 216795th of 436243 in the ESPN Overall Site. He was proud however that he beat his 83 year-old mother (Mattresses Mum) in all 3 competitions even though she took Parramatta every week as a diehard supporter and refused to take Redcliffe in any week because she dislikes Bennet. She told me that at least she tipped 10 in the second last round (Parra beat Penrith and Redcliffe lost to the Cowboys) – Ed.
Week One
The form guide is the essential piece of equipment for any punter – the market, recent form, trackwork, trainer, barrier, jockey, track, course, distance, track condition, bias, and other myriad pieces of information studied forensically to find the winner. Barring the market, which is completely objective, the form guide is treated subjectively by the punter based on anything from science to voodoo and everything in between. So here is the easy part – the market:
Grand Final Winner Market (as of Wednesday 6/8)
- Penrith Panthers. 2.40.
- Brisbane Broncos. 3.00.
- Melbourne Storm. 6.50.
- New Zealand Warriors. 12.00.
- Newcastle Knights. 17.00.
- Sydney Roosters. 23.00.
- Cronulla Sharks. 23.00.
- Canberra Raiders. 151.
Now for the interesting and more complicated part.
FORM GUIDE
| Pos | Points | Wins | Diff. | Home | Away | Form | Next | |
| 1 | Panthers | 42 | 18 | 333 | 9 – 3 | 9 – 3 | 4 – 1 | Warriors |
| 2 | Broncos | 42 | 18 | 214 | 7 – 5 | 11 – 1 | 3 – 1 | Storm |
| 3 | Storm | 38 | 16 | 168 | 9 – 3 | 7 – 5 | 4 – 1 | Broncos |
| 4 | Warriors | 38 | 16 | 124 | 8 – 4 | 8 – 4 | 4 – 1 | Panthers |
| 5 | Knights | 35 | 14 | 175 | 9 – 3 | 5 – 6 | 5 – 0 | Raiders |
| 6 | Sharks | 34 | 14 | 122 | 7 – 5 | 7 – 5 | 4 – 1 | Roosters |
| 7 | Roosters | 32 | 13 | -24 | 8 – 4 | 5 – 7 | 5 – 0 | Sharks |
| 8 | Raiders | 32 | 13 | -137 | 7 – 5 | 6 – 6 | 2 – 3 | Knights |
Barrier
In the NRL Premiership race the barrier is all important. Only twice in over 100 years has a team from outside the top 4 barriers won the race. 1993 Broncos (fifth in a 5 team final series) and 1996 Canterbury (sixth in an 8 team final series). The Broncos won 3 straight and the Bulldogs 4 to take out the title. If you read over the two teams the Bulldogs offer some hope to the bottom 4 as they were nowhere near as strong as the 93 Broncos.
Canberra (barrier 8) look like no chance of a win based on a quick scan of the form guide above. Further poor form coming in, and losses by the Cowboys and Rabbitohs, leave the Victor the Viking looking like his sword will offer little resistance to the Knights (barrier 5) array of weaponry. With a 5-nil win run up to the make the finals and the hottest player in the league prior to injury should have Victor feeling a little like the Black Knight. Whilst they will show a staunch refusal to give up I feel they will be insisting ‘tis but a scratch’ well before time. And King Ponga and his Knights will be off to continue the search for the Holy Grail.
Roosters (barrier 7) and Cronulla (barrier 6) come in with very different momentum. The Roosters were no chance of getting to the barriers but winning the last 5 and numerous results – especially Souths and the Cowboys – going their way have them as a winning prospect in this round. Cronulla were top 4 for a long period but are on the fade. The only team they have beaten above them all year on the ladder was the Knights way back in May and at that time the Knights were using balsa wood jousts! They do have a win over the Roosters but that was in April when the Rooster was about as good as a boiling hen. Either way these two will be like a piece of deep-fried flake or chicken from Greasy Harrys after a night at Caxton Street the following week.
Clearly the surprise packet of season 23, the Warriors (barrier 4) have a huge mountain to climb. But with hindsight the draw favoured the Warriors. They have not beaten a team above them and only played each of those teams once for a negative differential of 24 or 8 points/game. Further they played the Broncos during Origin. Penrith (barrier 1) will give a real welcome to finals football to the Warriors and they will fall into the softer side of the draw before having to meet Barrier 2 or 3!
Without doubt the match of the round is Broncos (barrier 2) and the Storm (barrier 3). Lang Park, 50000 fans, speed and excitement machines, a hoodoo. The winner avoids Penrith ‘til the big day and in my view gets the saloon passage. 8pm Friday – XXXX Bitter, Gottzinger Kransky’s and it will be a cracker! Broncos just, as hoodoos are meant to be broken and Walsh, Cobbo and Mam were in preschool when it started.
Trainers
Walters and Bellamy have a form line back to Bennett. Cleary, O’Brien, Fitzgibbon, Robinson and Stuart have been at the Roosters and Webster is out of Penrith. O’Brien has links to Bellamy through Melbourne. Walters has won 6 Premierships as a player and Captain but none as a coach. Bellamy played in 1 but has coached Melbourne into 8 finals winning 5. Cleary never played in a GF but has coached 4 and won the last 2. Webster and O’Brien have neither played or coached in a GF but have been assistants to Cleary and Bellamy. Robinson has never played in a GF but has got teams into 3 and won them all. That leaves us with Fitzgibbon and Stuart. Interestingly Stuarts only GF win had Fitzgibbon in the team. Stuart and Fitzgibbon both won Clive Churchill medals, Stuart winning 3 Premierships and coaching teams into 4 and losing 3. Fitzgibbon has won one but not coached a team in a GF. Interestingly his father Alan coached in the NRL. Clearly Walters, Stuart, Fitzgibbon and Cleary had outstanding playing careers. So what can we make of this? Cleary, Bellamy and Walters.
Tracks
Lang Park is no problem for either team in game 1 although many would argue track Bias to Storm. I am discounting any Hoodoo. The Broncos away record is the reason for their high position on the ladder which augurs well going forward. They lost 5 at home, two of which were Panthers and Storm.
Game 2 will be a bridge too far for a game Warriors. They need to be planning for an attempted ambush in the following round at home in Auckland when the track bias may swing back to them.
In Game 3 playing at Endeavour-Caltex-Ronson-Toyota-Remondis-Southern Cross Group- Shark-Points Bet Field -Park- Stadium at least will ensure 20000 of their fans won’t be disappointed all together. I just can’t see them winning even at home.
Game 4 is like Red Seas at the old creek sand track (Albion Park). Get on at MacDonald Jones Stadium. A massive track bias for the Knights as well as being on a Sunday arvo. A big full house with more Knights than a medieval festival in Cordoba! Their 3 home losses were well before they hit top gear.
Jockey
My best player is the Jockey and many are straight forward. Penrith and Broncos have premiership winning halves. If they control the pace of the game they win. For Melbourne if Harry Grant can mix it up with kicks, runs and passes they will win. Tohu Harris is the key for the Warriors. He knows what it takes but his effort will have to be herculean. Newcastle PONGA. Cronulla need someone to take the pressure of Hynes. I’m not sure who though. Roosters need Sam Walker to save their season and he showed enough last week that he can add a bit of X factor. Canberra have to put Wighton back into the 6 guernsey as he is wasted as a centre three quarter and the loss of Papalli cuts deeply.
Logo Battle
Dry night in Brisbane, Storm lose to galloping Bronco.
The Panther won’t have to hide to pray on an unarmed Warrior.
The Rooster will cock a doodle do in the shire as the Shark will be a marine animal out of water.
The Knight is too well-armed for poor old Victor.
Best Queensland Schoolboys (everything in between)
Penrith – Nil
Broncos- Walsh, Cobbo, Mam, Flegler plus many more
Storm – Coates, Munster, Grant
Warriors -Nil
Newcastle -Ponga, Gagai, Gamble
Cronulla- Mulitalo (Ipswich High)
Roosters- Walker, Collins
Canberra -Rapana (PBC), Fogarty (missing Papalii Horsburg)
Conclusion
So after my forensic investigation my tips for the week 1 are Broncos, Penrith, Roosters and Knights paying $4.56 on the TAB. Brisbane 1-12, Penrith 12+, Roosters 12+, Knights 12+ is paying a lot better at $121.08. Its that easy Almanac readers! Hopefully you’ll be eagerly awaiting Part 2.
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Apologies to Ivan Cleary- I’ve been chipped already. His last game was the 2002 GF- Stuart coach- Fitzgibbon Churchill medalist- doesn’t change this weeks form though and my multi is in to $41
Great analysis. Backing against the storm in a final against their bunnies leaves you open to the sort of self loathing you feel when you walk out of the TAB on a Saturday after backing against Pikey in the last at Ascot. Your logic was spot on but you are going home broke.