NRL Round 9 – Prop by the Sea: You gotta love footy!

 

 

The Courier Mail’s sports headline on Monday read ‘Phins RedFaced’, a crack at the opposition Brisbane club. But don’t worry, if we went back to Friday it was ‘Fears For Reyno As Broncos Rain Supreme’, Saturday it was ‘Broncos Sweating On Change To Cap System’, Sunday it was ‘The Hard Sel’ and by Tuesday we had ‘Reyno To Shoulder The Load’ and nearly 4 pages of Bronco mania. But more on the Broncos later.

 

Round 8 started with a rather amazing game with the Broncos running out 42 to 18 points winners over the Bulldogs. It was an undisciplined display by the Bulldogs and the Broncos had the game in complete control. They were very sharp and Cobbo certainly made a difference coming in from fullback. As I predicted, Willison made a difference on the edge but I was too smart to take my own advice.

On Friday we had the traditional Roosters versus Dragons ANZAC day clash and, as predicted, the Roosters were too strong. The Dragons were never really in the game and the Roosters are starting to look like a side that will begin to climb the ladder. Likewise, in the second Friday night game, the Warriors were too strong for the hapless Knights. I am not sure in which direction the Knights will head but they certainly do not look like a side that is going anywhere in this competition. The final Friday night game had the Storm up against the Rabbitohs. The Rabbitohs put on a good showing but the Storm at home were too good. The Mitchell sin binning late in the game created plenty of discussion but if the rules are that the head has to be protected and it is the defender’s responsibility, then I can understand why he was put in the bin. I also feel as though one week was a big enough suspension.

On Saturday there were two games and the first looked like a boilover at the 20 minute mark when the Titans rushed out to a 12-point lead. But as is their way, that was the end for the Titans as the Cowboys piled on an unanswered 44 points to absolutely thump the Titans up in Townsville. The second game was a match where I thought the Panthers would kick start their season, however the Sea Eagles with Turbo at full throttle (sort of) got out to a flyer and ran away with the game to win 26 points to 10. The Panthers are in deep trouble at this stage of the season.

That takes us to Sunday where the Dolphins looked like they were going to trouble the Raiders, but when the Raiders found their groove they were way too strong and ran out comprehensive winners 40 to 28. The Dolphins coach must be concerned about the meek method in which they surrendered that game. Finally, the last game for the weekend was a beauty. I call Cronulla Cronullaaargh for a reason and it was evident on Sunday afternoon. It was a game I believe the Sharks should have won but, in the tight moments, they made some bad decisions that opened the door for the Tigers. There were some excellent players in both sides, but none better than the 2 front rowers, May and Fonua-Blake. The contest was of good quality and was very, very exciting. Well done to the Tigers and realistically, given the two previous weeks, their coach Marshall must be happy with that.

As a sideline, I made it to the quaint North Ipswich Reserve with a big crowd in attendance on the weekend for the Ipswich RLseason launch with their own version of Magic Round, and saw 3 highly entertaining games with Fassifern defeating West End 48-18, Norths and Redbank fighting out a 30-all draw, and my old Grandfather’s club Brothers beating the Jets 32-18. Well done to the IRL.

 

Round 9 is of course Magic Round where Brisbane, and specifically Suncorp Stadium, become the centre of the rugby league universe. The Women’s State of Origin will be played on Thursday night and I am going to attend this year’s match hoping for a Queensland victory before the men’s games start.

Friday’s first has the Sharks up against the Eels and, after last week, I have to go for the Sharks. The Eels are coming off a win and the bye and Moses is supposedly their Talisman, so they have some hope. Likewise in the second game on Friday night, after Redcliffe’s capitulation last week I cannot see them holding out the Roosters, although Marshall-King will make a difference. The Roosters will start to ascend the ladder as they are a far better side than their current position.

On Saturday, games start with the Rabbitohs up against the Knights. South Sydney needs to win this game and it is a game that they should win. Like the Knights, they are also starting with a new halves pairing with the Englishman Dodd still not able to get a run. Schuster is on the extended bench with Dodd as he comes back from a long layoff. Gray is back at fullback and that will be a positive for the Rabbits. The Warriors and the Cowboys is a very interesting matchup with those sides alongside each other on the ladder. The Cowboys should win this game but, as we know, the Warriors on their day can beat anybody. If Dearden, who is one of the competition’s form players, takes control the Cowboys win. The final game has the West Tigers up against the Dragons and it is a little like the first game on that day. It is a match the West Tigers must win. The Dragons will be desperate to win the game as well and have dropped their halfback. The West Tigers are getting a bit of momentum and teamwork back and have moved on from the distractions of two weeks ago.

That brings us to the three Sunday games. The Titans and Bulldogs were both poor last week but the Bulldogs are more consistent than the Titans (understatement). The unpredictable Titans, however, make it a very tough game to pick. But you would have to think the Bulldogs. Likewise, the Broncos and the Panthers has me thinking that the Bronco’s should win this game, however if the Panthers are going to be in this competition they are getting close to D day for victories. I think it will be the Broncos. The final game has a great deal of interest as the Storm should be too strong for the Raiders but the Raiders have shown a great degree of composure this year. They are a young side with a lot of speed, and they certainly have strength in the middle of the field. The Storm has a great record at Suncorp Stadium so one would think that they will be too good. Interestingly the Sea Eagles, who have played the Broncos for the last three years as a home game, finally get a bye for Magic Round.

 

Top Eight (in order)

2 Melbourne 5 Brisbane 6 Cowboys 7 Cronullaargh 8 Manly 11 Souths 13 Roosters 17 Penrith

 

Fact / Stat for the day – since 1998, other than Canterbury Bankstown in 2005 and the Melbourne Storm in 2010 when they were both stripped of points, every team that has won a grand final the previous season, barring the West Tigers in 2006, has finished in the 8. Given Penrith’s current position on the ladder, last, they are at risk of not making the 8 which would almost have been unbelievable at the start of the season. Discounting the two teams who lost points, 15 of the 24 premiers have finished top 4 the following season – an incredible 62.5%. By my calculations, the Panthers will need luck and a minimum of 10 wins plus their 2 byes (28 points) to make the 8, and 13 wins and 2 byes (34 points) to make the 4. So, with 18 rounds remaining, 55% winning might get them in the 8 and 72% might get them in the top 4. Penrith are 8/1 to win the GF, 9/1 to make the top 4, 5/2 to make the 8, 6/4 on to miss the top 8, 20/1 on to miss the top 4 and 35/1 to win the wooden spoon. Any takers?

 

Tippin Stats – A 5 last week means I am starting to lose pace with the leaders, although I am still inside the top 20000. Mattress-ide has pushed me into 5th and the Councillor continues to make ground. But spare a thought for GBH. He cannot take a trick! He got over his 60th birthday blues and only scored 3, which I guess was better than birthday 2. Meanwhile, the Crabman tells me he has not had enough time to study the form because his pots are full of big bucks! I am guessing that is a fair excuse given Souffs, smithy65 and Rusty Bed Springs are all behind him!

 

You gotta love footy!

 

 

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