It is Olympic time and for me that is always a time to reflect on my Dad and his great love of the Olympics, but especially the blue riband of the Olympics – the men’s 100 metre sprint. Unfortunately, Australia’s flying mullet Browning, whose hair has been not so long anymore, couldn’t get past the heats and invoke the spirit of the great Queensland sprinter Hector Hogan – our last medal winner (Bronze, 1956) in this event. However, the final proved to be one of the great Olympic finals. How they split the winner from second was hard to see as the American Lyles, with all the pizzazz, beat the Jamaican Thompson in what truly was a race for the ages. In horse racing I think the Stewards would have called it a dead heat! No-one knew who won and certainly the American channelled the spirit of Usain Bolt with his showmanship throughout. What a great race.
So, to Round 21 and the Cowboys will have to do better than they did against the Tigers if they are going to challenge at the business end. At times you think they’ll be a threat in the competition but they leak points and have the 14th worst defensive record in the league. Prior to Olam being sent off – which was deserved- it looked like the Tigers were about to get back in the game The Cowboys need starch in their defence now or it is all over for them at the serious end although they did the job and won, I guess.
Likewise, we can finally put paid to the Warriors whose season was on life support but is now over. They were poor against the Eels at home in front of a big crowd when they had everything to play for. They promised so much at the start of the season and delivered very little. The Eels, at least, showed a bit in a game that lacked any real lustre.
A very interesting game in the round was the Roosters and the Dolphins. It’s hard to see the Roosters defence being that lax when they play the top end teams but the Dolphins, who kept coming, have shown they can compete with teams above them. But they need all their players back to be a real force. The Dolphins started poorly this week and their overall stats aren’t solid enough to win close encounters, even when 74 points are scored. Walker was very good for the Roosters but they are just leaking too many points.
That took us to the three games on the Saturday. One of the most anticipated was the Broncos up against the Titans. Here is what I wrote last week:
Saturday’s first game, and a critical one for the Broncos was an extreme let down. The Broncos were very poor. They just are not doing the work required to be a force in the premiership. Where has it all gone wrong? Just before half-time, and with two quick tries, I think most people thought the Broncs were on track and back in the game.
I could nearly repeat it. What a poor performance by the Broncos and, if anything, if I thought last week was bad, this week was worse. The Titans played with passion and worked with each other in the defensive line. I don’t know where the Broncos go from here and the Titans are an outside chance of making the 8. Well done, Professor Hasler!
The Dragons were very entertaining in their first win in Melbourne in 25 years. Their 18-16 win over the Storm keeps their hopes alive and puts them into the eight and makes them one of the success stories of the season. Flanagan has certainly added something to them. Lomax must be rethinking his decision to leave the Dragons and join the Eels, given their current positions on the ladder. The final Saturday game saw the Sharks run out too strong. The Rabbits, as predicted, didn’t offer too much. It’s a hard season for the Rabbitohs from here. Likewise, I’m not sure where the Sharks will be finishing in the eight but I can’t see them being a threat.
To Sunday’s games and the Knights really took it up to the Penrith Panthers in what was another highly entertaining game of rugby league. It looked like the Knights might have been able to bring about the second boil over of the weekend but it was not to be. Interesting to see Liam Martin choosing not to pass to an unmarked To’o on his outside and try to steamroll Ponga which nearly was the turning point in the match. However, as Penrith have done, they find a way to win and Cleary stepped up at the end and scored a try. Game over.
The Bulldogs and Raiders also provided a very entertaining match to finish off the round with the Bulldogs running out winners. The win puts the Bulldogs one spot behind the Sharks in fifth and the Raiders just outside the eight, so both need to win all their games from here on in. The Bulldogs are playing with a lot of energy however, as I’ve said all season long, they just lack that big yardage man in the middle of the field. The coach is certainly doing a good job with them and you have to recognise the work that he’s done to put pride back in their jersey. Addo-Carr is certainly a big in for the Dogs and Sexton seems to be finding his groove.
The first game of Round 23 sees the Rabbitohs up against the Storm. After last week’s little speed bump, I don’t think the Storm will be under any illusion as to what they have to do this week. It’s a Storm warning for me.
Friday starts off with a really interesting game on the Gold Coast with Titans playing the Sharks. This is a chance for the Titans to make a push for the 8 – albeit hanging by a thread- and, likewise, the Sharks pushing to stay in the top four. I think it’ll be a cracking game and I actually think the Titans can win this one but, given my record with the Sharks, that could mean anything, The final game has the Eels against the Panthers. They are traditional rivals but one can’t see the Eels troubling the Panthers at all in this match.
Saturday has three games starting with the Raiders and Manly in another crunch game. The Raiders’ season is on the line. They lose this and they are gone. The Sea Eagles’ top four spot is also on the line. They need to win and have three big ins with Croker, Hopoate and Olakau’atu (back from his Origin brain snap) all returning.
Even though they always provide good games, the Cowboys should beat a miserable Broncos at home. The Cowboys have to win if they are to keep their top four aspirations alive. I just don’t know where the Broncos go from here, although I wouldn’t be surprised on Saturday night to see them play closer to their potential. Brisbane cannot be worse! Strangely the Courier Mail is still saying this game ‘is their last throw of the dice.’ It will be like rolling a run of Tutus or Boxcars at the Craps table!
The last game on Saturday is another cracking game with a big impact on the top eight and the top four. The Dragons can cement their top eight position with a win. The Bulldogs can summon the top four position. Both of these sides have really been surprise packets this year and it’ll be interesting to see how the Dragons play. I’m sure it’ll be up the middle against the Bulldogs but the Bulldogs have some real strike weapons out wide with Burton, Kikau, Crichton and the Fox.
That takes us to Sunday where we have two games. Firstly, Redcliffe at Lang Park against the Warriors in a must win for Redcliffe as they desperately try and hang onto the eight. The Warriors have been very disappointing and I’m not sure they’ll be able to beat Redcliffe at 2.00pm on a 22 degree Sunday in Brisbane.
The final game has the Knights up against the West Tigers. The Knights should be too strong in this match as they are holding the same gossamer thread as the Titans. They just have to put the Tigers away. The Roosters, by the benefit of the bye, will move to 32 points so cannot be moved out of 3rd spot. The crunch games are the Sharks, who must beat the Titans, and Manly who, likewise, must beat the Raiders as the teams sitting between them – Bulldogs and the Cowboys – congest the top four. The Cowboys, in particular, have the worst For and Against but are also the only team in contention that still has a bye.
So, my selections are Storm, Titans, Panthers, Sea Eagles, Cowboys, Dragons, Dolphins and Knights.
My season prediction positions after Round 12: Penrith 2nd, Broncos 14th (and gone), Melbourne 1st, Souths 15th (and gone), Roosters 3rd, Cowboys 6th, Newcastle 12th and St George 8th.
Odd Rugby League losing Grand Final facts!
The last 3 losers of the Grand Final sit 14th, 15th and 16th on the ladder. A significant fall from grace. Over the past 25 years since Canterbury were beaten by the Broncos and the Macintyre system was introduced (it was abandoned for the start of 2012 for the current method) in 1998, only the Roosters, Melbourne, Manly and Penrith have been able to finish in the top 4 the following season. The Roosters in 2004 finishing first and losing the GF; Melbourne four times when first on the ladder in 2007 and winning, fourth on the ladder in 2009 and winning, second on the ladder in 2017 and winning, and first in 2019 and not making the GF (however they won in 2020); Manly in 2008 finishing second and winning and in 2014 finishing second and not making the GF; and Penrith first on the ladder in 2021 after their loss to Melbourne in season 2020 from which they catapulted into the first of their three winning finals.
So, since 1999, 5 losing GF teams have made the Grand Final and won, 2 have made it and lost, and 2 finished top 4 but did not make the GF. Historically, teams do not win from outside the Top 4 so losing the Grand Final has been a poisoned chalice. 9 previous GF losers have finished 4th to 8th, and 8 (including the Broncs this year, barring some miracle) have finished outside the 8. The Cowboys have the dubious record of the worst drop – loser to 13th – in 2018 but the Broncos could wrestle that title off them this year! Fascinating stuff!!
Losing 2 straight GFs has been achieved by the 03/4 Roosters, 92/93 Saints, 88/89 Balmain Tigers, 82/83 Manly Sea Eagles, 76/77 Eels and, of course, Wests Magpies lost the 61/62/63 games to the Saint George Dragons.
In that same period since 1961 (to 1998), only Souths in 1970, Canterbury in 1980 and 1995, Penrith in 1991 and Manly in 1996, have been able to win a Grand Final after losing the year before. So, if your team doesn’t win the comp, you sure don’t want to run second!
You gotta love footy!
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‘Gossamer’? Almost poetic, Prop! Or have you been out and about in the early morning light to take in the cobwebs? (I think my dear Mum used to use the hairspray of the same name.)
Grubby half back marker 9/10 just because as a prop you can’t have a perfect 10, but you were close to a gold medal, mind you your odd footy fact is magnificent and was like reading an Ian Heads column in RLW, Speaking of RLW maybe u could introduce the ratings out of 10 for each player during the finals series? The old theory that you have to lose a GF to win one, isn’t working for the Broncos but may well b the case with the Lions, but I still won’t be watching the aerial ping pong. Melbourne v Penrith GF prop, what do u think? Have a great weekend watching what should be some crackers of games everyone ?
Thanks Prop, always a good read! Sadly your prediction last week on storm didn’t come to pass, but happy to see this week was on target! And speaking of storm, last week you said:
“Interestingly Harry Grant would be regarded as a hooker who runs a lot from dummy half whereas Cameron Smith, the hooker before him at Melbourne, was a more creative sort of a player who didn’t scoot a lot from dummy half. Their data for the 2017 and 2023 seasons is very close and what I found amazing was there is a clear Bellamy blueprint for his teams.”
Maybe in a future article you can elaborate on Bellamy’s blueprint!
Well that’s a good comment, Grubbie And I think as the marker you are you should be re-introducing that old concept from rugby league week where players were given a score of 1 to 10. boy we used to look forward to that . weatherman and you actually are a meteorologist so you should know how the storm will perform on a regular basis I take your point on Bellamy‘s blueprint he is really the master coach. I’m not sure if I would be able to find that blueprint but boy it works. Likewise grubby if you finish as the loser in the grand final unless you’re Melbourne, the chances are you going to be going back to the back blocks of the ladder . Weatherman are you predicting a storm warning for Penrith next Thursday night in what should be a blockbuster match of the season. This is a chance for you to redeem yourself from some of the terrible reports you have forwarded from the media logical board over the years. This is your chance to be more Ron Burgundy, then Gary Youngberry!
loved the Hector Hogan reference, my Dad used to talk about his bronze medal in Melbourne
Nudgee College hold a schools relay meet each season, and run the Hector Hogan 100 yards as a remembrance of the great Queensland sprinter
There was a great article in the Courier Mail years ago ‘Hector Hogan – the sprinter we almost forgot’ – google was no help then searching for it
https://rosalieoldboys.com.au/hector-hogan/
Hec Hogan started life in Rocky.
I don’t know anyone else, or of anyone else, who went to Rosalie.
Harris Andrew has put Padua on the map.
Here’s Hec’s ADB entry – written by Dr Ian Jobling, a pioneer of Aust academic sports history and figure in the Olympic Movement.https://adb.anu.edu.au/biography/hogan-hector-denis-10516
You’ve got to love the audacity of the unacknowledged profile in the Rosalie publication. Word for word!
JTH: great work from Dr Ian Jobling, as always
…
Rosalie: they used to own the playing fields at Sprenger St, Fig Tree Pocket, now owned by BGGS.
A revered Sports Administrator, Rosalie old boy, Peter Donaldson (from a great cricket background), has a memorial plaque at the fields. Sadly, Peter passed away during the time when he was Sports master at BBC.
Padua: a rugby league nursery: David Shillington, David Stagg, Dane Carlaw, Paul McCabe, Shane Perry, Brad Watts, Paul Vautin. Soccer: Jamie Young, Eddy Groves: former owner of the Bullets!