Thank the football gods that Round 9 is over. It was a tough tipping week. I dropped 50400 places in the ESPN Tipping Comp, so clearly follow my work with deep hesitation.
So where did I go wrong in Round 9? Like just about everybody, I started strong with the Panthers. Souths are really depleted at the moment and the loss of Gray to a hip drop and the movement of Cook to fullback after half-time didn’t help. Nor did the poor concentration lapse that allowed Penrith through Edwards and on to May in the 62nd minute to score an embarrassing try which summed up the poor state of affairs. St Wayne of the Rabbits will really have his work cut out. Edwards, on the other hand, was outstanding and I’m glad the NSW selectors won’t pick him. Manly looked like they were going to put the sword through Canberra and their loss was damaging to their future but reinforced the Raiders’ ability to trouble sides. More amazing was Canberra’s bounce back after a very poor performance the previous week.
I thought the Broncos would be too strong for the Roosters and, unfortunately, I couldn’t predict that Haas was well below his best and Reynolds would get hurt. That is a blow to the Broncos and, clearly, Walsh has to be more selective if the Broncos are to compete. At least in Origin, with the like of DCE, Munster, Hunt and Co, he will be more circumspect in his decision making. Credit where it is due to the Roosters who strutted their stuff in front of the big crowd at Suncorp. Crichton, Collins and Terrel May will soon have Leniu, JWH and Radley back which starts to look imposing.
I watched the Bulldogs and the Tigers from the Anglers Arms and let out an ‘Oh No!’ when I found out Api wasn’t playing. There has been criticism of the ref and I thought she had a poor game, however the attempted intimidation of referees generally needs to be curtailed. The rules are clear that only the captain can talk to the ref. Use the whistle, ref, and penalise – guaranteed to stop that nonsense quickly. Klemmer got his just desserts. Canterbury, other than their win over the Roosters, have only beaten lower placed sides. They certainly are better than last year but still don’t have the grunt up front for mine. The Titans again showed improvement but, as is their way, came from 20-6 down to be just beaten. Déjà vu! The exciting Fa’alogo did play and scored and is in for the unlucky Papenhuyzen. The Oracle’s all up that the Storm would win comfortably was off as they didn’t cover the line, total points were under 44.5, Warbrick did score and Grant didn’t so the only pay out to you, Oracle, is smarten yourself up to score a try.
Only The Prospector contacted me this week and he is fed up with Spudd Carrol (pardon the pun) and his work on Fox. He wrote,
The Irish potato famine lasted from 1845 to 1852. It caused major hardship and the loss via starvation of a million lives. Another prop of Irish descent has afflicted the airwaves of Fox Sports for a similar amount of time, “The Spudd Famine” with, unfortunately, no end in sight. Insightful or intelligent comments from “Spudd” are as rare as an edible potato in Ireland in the 1840s.
Even as a Hibernian brother I almost have to agree with The Prospector that Spudd’s commentary can be benign at best!
The Cowboys are becoming a real concern with Redcliffe playing so well that Wayne was dancing in the sheds! It was the genuine old age Tony Manero type at the Court Jester circa Brisbane in the 80s. After last week, Redcliffe were a completely different side defeating a disappointing Cowboys. Plath is a real find and Katoa continues to improve. The old forward pack is holding together and they play the mistake free Bennett trademark game. The Cowboys at least have 3 games coming up that they should win but their defence has to improve.
The Warriors are also a side of much concern and their loss to the Knights was surprising. Newcastle have found starch in their defence and they have to hang on for Ponga’s return. Cronulla were able to beat the Dragons but all eyes are on their match against the Storm where they play a top four side – they were comfortable against the Dragons but I would have liked to have seen more.
It’s an interesting round this weekend which kicks off with the match between Redcliffe and the Sea Eagles. Given Redcliffe have got Farnsworth back I tend to think they may trouble Manly, especially as the game is at Lang Park. You have to give it to the Dolphins as their win last week entrusted them deeper into the hearts of their supporters. Poor performers one week followed by a really strong performance the next. Even their old coach was excited, and that is saying something!
The Sea Eagles, on the other hand, have been, to say the least, a little disappointing. Admittedly, they’ve won two of the last three but the loss to Canberra last week was poor. Makes me think they may not be going as well as you might think. I am looking forward to Thursday night’s game and I am hoping that the Dolphins can win this match. The halfback Katoa continues to impress and I’m almost thinking that Plath could be an outside chance to make his debut for Queensland if there are injuries.
Friday night has Penrith up against mini-Penrith (or Bulldogs) in the early game and I cannot see the Bulldogs troubling Penrith. They are too clinical. They make few mistakes and they just seem to be able to come up with a big play when required. The second game has a deal of interest as well. The Eels are coming off a bye, which I must say they desperately needed, but are without Gutherson and Moses. The coach is potentially under fire and his forward pack doesn’t seem to have the offloads the top teams do. The drums will start to beat much louder around the tenure of the coach if the Eels put in a poor performance. Perhaps Arthur has extracted as much from this roster as he can and clearly there’s a possibility that their window (which is the modern speak for their opportunity to win a comp) is closing, and rapidly. The Broncos,, on the other hand are without their key player – Reynolds – which is a huge loss and I’m sure Walsh will be less exuberant this week. I think the Broncos will be too strong but they certainly have to win this game. They’re away from home and without Reynolds and, hopefully, Haas is fitter than he was last week. It is a ‘must win’ for the Broncos and they do have enough talent to win this match.
On Saturday our first game has the West Tigers up against the Knights. The Knights have impressed me in the last couple of weeks, even though I haven’t tipped them. They have shown a bit of resolve in defence over the last two weeks as they wait for Ponga to return! At least Api is back for the Tigers which makes a major difference to their performance. However, Api back or not, they cannot display the ill-discipline they shared with us last week. Whilst Benji seems to be doing a good job, we all know that in the NRL it is wins that determine your future. I think the Knights will be too strong in this one.
The Dragons or Dargons (as they were mistakenly called) are up against the Rabbits and this really is anyone’s game. Latrell is back and that is a huge plus but he must roll his sleeves up if the ‘pride of the league’ is to be taken seriously. The Dragons’ season has had more bumps than a reptile’s skin and they never look overly confident. They have put some good football together and some very poor stuff to boot. I do feel a little for the Rabbitohs with a genuine element of sympathy given the number of players they are without. Clearly though, they have to show up in this game for all their dyed in the wool supporters (including RITV, but at least it reminds us why alcohol was invented!).
The game of the round is the Storm versus Cronulla. This is a game many of us who have been death riding the Sharks have been waiting for. The game will give us an indication as to whether Cronulla are the real deal or simply a team that has been incredibly favoured by the draw. Some aspects of Cronulla’s play make me think that they may be able to push forward and deeper into the competition. However, until they play the heavyweights – the Storm, Roosters and Penrith, and even the Broncos for that matter, we don’t really have a full line on them. Whilst the Storm haven’t been at their best, I’m sure that they will be pulling out all guns this week. It was disappointing to see Papenhuyzen hurt again. He is a tremendous player and a big loss. His vision, his speed, and all-round ability to be infectious around other players is a crucial component of Melbourne’s strike power. Whilst he is a big loss, however, the youngster playing fullback, Fa’alogo, is also a very exciting player. I tend to get the feeling that Melbourne is just starting to find their groove now they have a number of players back from injury – Hughes is solid, Grant is very good, Warbrick’s attack is very dangerous, Munster is – well, just Munster, and their forward pack is tradesmen-like in the true Bellamy style. I have to stick with the Storm to win this game but I will be happy to stand corrected next week. Cronulla have to show that they are more than just the flat track bullies that they look like.
The Rooster’s game is also on the improve. I have to think the Roosters will actually put the Warriors to the sword. The Warriors have been very disappointing and, for mine, the Roosters are starting to roll into this competition. They get Leniu back this weekend and that is a big plus as Collins has done a lot of the heavy work for the Roosters without the other props. Young Terrell May is showing that he may be a player that, over the next couple years, will develop into a frontliner. On the other hand, the Warriors started well but their season seems to be going nowhere. They just haven’t been able to win the games they should have. I’m not sure what the problem is there but they are a shadow of the ‘23 version.
The final game is a Queensland Derby on a Sunday afternoon with the Titans taking on the Cowboys at home. The Cowboys have to improve the way they play. I actually think the Titans at home may show something this weekend, provided the nonsense around Fifita does not upset their mood. It seems strange that the Fifita clause was put in but we will know the answer to that just before kick-off on Thursday. The Titans cannot continue to start poorly, which has really been a DNA style problem for them. It’s no good coming home with the wet sail at the finish and just being beaten. That’s the déjà vu of the Titans that I talk about. Hopefully, there will be a good crowd of Titans supporters there to cheer them on and it won’t be a large Cowboys crowd, as is often the case when the Titans play at home. The Cowboys must win this match but I can’t see it.
So, my selections are Redcliffe, Panthers, Brisbane, Knights, Dragons, Storm, Roosters, and Titans. Ricky’s Raiders will enjoy the bye.
My season prediction positions after Round Four: Penrith 3rd, Broncos 6th, Melbourne 2nd, Souths 17th, Roosters 6th, Cowboys 10th, Newcastle 11th and St George 13th.
Odd Rugby League fact: Cronulla forward Dale Finucane, who retired last week, leaves the game with an odd record. He has won at 33 different venues. Congratulations to him on that unique record and his wonderful career!
You gotta love footy!
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Tipping is for fools and/or the courageous, PITC. That’s quite an achievement to drop 50400 places in the tipping competition in one week!
An interesting test for the Storm and the Sharks this weekend. The former are missing three key players, the latter are flaky against upper echelon opposition.
Eels v Broncos also a test of personnel and character for both sides.
Cheers ? ?