WARNING
Read the warning from last week and the week before – nothing has changed – Ed.
Week Three
Grand Final Winner Market (as of Wednesday 20/8)
Penrith 2.00
Brisbane 2.50
Warriors 11.00
Melbourne 11.00
The market provides no unexpected change this week. Penrith and Brisbane have both shortened a little in the market whilst Melbourne out from stuck at 11s and the Warriors are back to their earlier quote of 11s after dishing it to Newcastle last week which I ,of course, in true gambling spirit, once again got nothing for something! The Bookies’ eyes are tearing at the moment as punters are still queuing up for the top 2, especially in multis. Of course the punter sheds no tears for the satchel swingers and rightly so. They win a million dollars hanging around blokes who win $1000! This week’s games have the Broncos $1.27 at home to beat the Warriors at $3.80 and Penrith $1.18 to beat Melbourne at $4.80.
Form Guide
| Pos | Diff. | Home | Form | Next | |
| 1 | Panthers | 26 | Yes | 1-0 | Melbourne |
| 2 | Broncos | 26 | Yes | 1-0 | Auckland |
| 3 | Storm | -21 | No | 1 – 1 | Penrith |
| 4 | Warriors | 4 | No | 1- 1 | Brisbane |
Barrier
At the outset I reminded everyone that only twice in over 100 years has a team from outside the top 4 barriers won the race – so armed with that knowledge I took Newcastle last week. You just can’t shovel enough brains into statues! Inside barriers are generally a good place to be on good tracks over shorter distances (up to 1600) and that’s how this weekend looks. The crossover games for the top 2 after their strolls in the first week must have their opponents wondering where to look for a run! Melbourne had luck with them last week and they will need it in spades if they are win this week. Again, Grant and Munster were disappointing and without Hughes they lacked cohesion even though Wishart was outstanding. As I said last week, the dark cloud of Penrith was awaiting them. This weekend they won’t be able to run or make eye contact and fight back against the panther but will need all the rocks, sticks and bare hands they can find if they are going to be sighted in Sydney the following Sunday night. After watching the Q Cup final – and it was a tremendous game – I thought maybe Pezet could be given a chance but that hasn’t happened.
The Warriors on the other hand completely blew Newcastle off the park. Their record against the Broncos is littered with upsets but I can’t see it in this round. The Broncos have been the revelation this season alongside the Warriors. Everyone expected Penrith to be here but neither of these teams would have been considered Top 4. I wouldn’t have had the Warriors in my Top 8 and I wouldn’t have had the Broncos in my Top 4 so, regardless of the result this weekend, their seasons have been spectacular. The Warriors were excellent on Saturday making the Knights look very average but I just don’t think it is possible for them to beat Brisbane when you turn possession over as often as they did. The Warriors learnt a lesson about finals last week and if Walsh is on song, I think they will get a second lesson this weekend. Johnson returns after missing the first round certainly made a difference.
Trainers
Cleary get the opportunity to put the Storm away which, given the 2020 loss, would certainly be good for his team. Bellamy and Cleary are the two most experienced coaches left in the comp and their records speak for themselves. Bellamy has coached Melbourne into 8 finals winning 5 whilst Cleary has coached 4 and won the last 2. We know these coaches will have their charges coached to the minute. On a side note, I take my hat off to Robinson at his press conference after the Storm match, where he did not blame the Ref but recognised his team hadn’t played well enough all season. A rarity from coaches these days ,especially when privately he must have thought he missed the rub of the green.
Webster – in his first season and Walters in his second are very inexperienced at this time of the year. But Walters has won 6 Premierships as a player and Captain and has coached an Origin series win. He knows what is required in the big games. The Kevolution is on a roll and 50,000 fans will be there with him.
As a side note, if Webster is to progress into the GF, he will join a select club of first season coaches to make it into a premiership decider. Leo Nosworthy (also the first non-playing coach to win a GF) in the great 1969 Balmain boilover; John Monie in 1984 losing 6-4 to Canterbury after seemingly having a cushy ride with Gibson’s Eels; Phil Gould’s Bulldogs winning the 1988 GF as the youngest winning coach; Michael Hagan winning the 2001 title with the Knights; followed in 2002 by Ricky Stuart in his first year at the Roosters; and finally in 2013 Trent Robinson winning first up also with the Roosters. So that is 6 first year coaches to make the GF since 1967 with a 66%-win rate. The bad news is, since then, Nosworthy, Hagan and Stuart have won not won another, Monie (1986 Eels) won one at his second attempt, Gus (Penrith 1991) got a second and Robinson (Roosters 2018-19) collected two more. Along with Stuart ,Robinson is still coaching and could get more. I’ve got no idea what this means but when you consider the number of coaches in the SRL, ARL and NRL since 1969 it is a very select club.
Tracks
The track is of no consequence to Penrith. They could play at the Gymnasium (Jimmy) Grounds in North Rockhampton and be the favourites although Munster and Grant could find their way around the ground situated on the Fitzroy River just south of Callaghan Park and former home of the Rockhampton Railways Club. Likewise, Lang Park is a massive plus for the Broncos however they lost 56-18 to the Warriors at Lang Park in 2013 (they were without their Origin players).
Jockey
The only question mark over Penrith are the injuries to their halves. Luai must be some risk in a big game and Cleary apparently has a sore finger. Luai’s new 3-year deal most probably eases a bit of his shoulder pain. The Bookies are not lengthening out the price on that info. Melbourne on the other hand have been nowhere near their best. Meaney was so much better last week without Papenhuyzen’s shadow being cast over him but they will need their forwards to restrict Cleary’s time. Munster will need to do more than one piece of magic and Grant will need all whistles to blow his way. The son of the famous Dapto Dog, Tyran Wishart, was their best last week and may have a role to play. Either way, I can’t see Penrith dropping this one.
Likewise, I feel the Broncos stable of Haas, Carrigan, Mam, Cobbo and Walsh under the tutelage of Reynolds and the undervalued tradesman Capewell having too many guns for the Warriors. The Warriors achievement is tremendous yet they will need Fonua-Blake to consistently bend the line, Harris to reinforce the line and Johnson to consistently put players over the line if they are to put the rookie coach into a maiden final.
Logo Battle
Panthers aren’t afraid of the dark or storms.
Broncos will be too hard to catch for a tired Warrior.
Best Queensland Schoolboys (everything in between)
Warriors Nil
Broncos Hetherington, Walters
Storm Welsh, Seve
Panthers nil
Conclusion
My analysis leads me to a Penrith – Brisbane final. It is time to look for a Clive Churchill Medallist from those sides now as their price will be a little better this week. I suggest Panthers 1-12 and Brisbane plus 12. If I was a gambling man (which I am) I would be taking Penrith 1-12 and the Broncos plus 13 currently paying $6.35. I’m also looking at Haas ($12), Carrigan ($13), Yeo ($11), and Martin ($23) to win the Churchill Medal. So once again it’s that easy Almanac readers! Hopefully you’ll now be eagerly awaiting Part 4.
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Sorry folks but that should be Broncos 13 plus in analysis above!
Now adjusted – Ed.