NRL Finals, Week 1 – Can Canberra or the Roosters defy history?

 

 

We all know that no team has conceded 50 points in a regular season game and gone on to win the Grand Final. Two of this year’s top 8 are in that situation, minor premiers Canberra (Round 27) and the eighth placed Roosters (Round 1). The latter have a double curse to overcome as no team outside of the top 4 has won the premiership for 30 years (Canterbury Bankstown in 1995). And although the Roosters have been in good form of late, you’d have to have them at long odds to win 4 finals in a row, all against teams ranked above them.

 

But what about Canberra? Their collapse against the Dolphins on Sunday was hardly a standard minor round game after they rested at least 10 of their first choice players. Canberra have come a long way this year but will they fall prey to that other, not quite so intractable hurdle, ‘you have to lose one before you win one’? Only two or three of their players have finals experience – and that was nine years ago! Big Papa is in doubt this week with injury concerns. They come up against a Broncos team that has, of late, been hot to trot. But what sticks out about the Raiders in 2025 is that they play as a team. There seems to be a genuine esprit de corps among the players, driven and supported by their heart-on-sleeve coach ‘Sticky’ Stuart who has been there, done that many times before. You’d be a mug to bet against them.

 

In Round 27, the Broncos were scintillating at times as they downed Melbourne to secure the double chance. Walsh seemed possessed at times and the Coates factor was grounded, albeit with questionable tactics at times. To add insult to it all, injuries to Hughes and Papenhuyzen and yet another suspension to NAS leave Melbourne vulnerable heading into the finals. The Sea Eagles sent DCE out a winner in front of the faithful at Brooky, his left-footed snap making the difference in the end. The Roosters were ruthless against the Rabbitohs and come into the finals in the form you want to be displaying. Likewise the Panthers who showed up the limitations of the Dragons. The Titans sent Hasler out with a win after a big comeback against the Wests Tigers. There’s still plenty of work for Benji next year to get his charges to finals footy. The Sharks showed their best side, which is very good, while the Bulldogs will be grateful that they’ve got the double chance to try to find some form in the next week or two. The Dolphins showed why they’re the entertainers and it was good to see journeyman Mark Nicholls exit the game a winner. Canberra might have been embarrassed but won’t reflect on that one too much. The Eels ran riot while the Knights showed why they finished last – they were simply shocking!

 

Week 1 of finals footy should be compelling. Two of the top four sides are not in great shape while three of the lower ranked teams come into the post-season in hot form and with genuine aspiration to go deep into the series. Tomorrow night the battered, bruised and on-the-back-foot Storm host the battered, bruised and out-of-form Bulldogs. Oh, to get a win and buy a week’s break to recover, regroup and, hopefully, regain a few troops. Are the Doggies strong enough in the middle? Does Melbourne have the troops to exploit that Achilles heel? Will Bellamy finally give Pezet a start? (I think Wishart is a much better force in the 14 jumper.) Will it be Munster or Crichton who makes the difference? What tactics will be used against Coates, and will they get away with it? The Storm are usually such a safe bet, especially at home, but they’re struggling. But so are the Bulldogs, so I’ll go with Melbourne.

 

Saturday afternoon has the fast fading Warriors trying their hardest to survive an elimination final against the powerful Panthers, albeit at the Warriors’ home ground. It’s hard to see the hosts, even in front of their fanatical fans, holding out the four-time defending premiers. Mind you, every other team in the finals would love to see what would be one of the upsets of the season. But I can’t see it happening – Penrith to progress.

 

The later Sharks v Roosters game, also an elimination final, is possibly the most intriguing match of the weekend. Thankfully, for the sake of the game, Hynes is available for the Sharks, otherwise I fear it would be one way traffic. His battle with Walker will go a long way to determining the winner. Tedesco is carving them up of late, always backing up and sniffing out an opportunity. Both sides have been solid in defence. The forward should cancel each other out, so keep an eye on the 7s. That will be the storyline come Sunday morning. I think the Roosters have timed their run well, have the experience and have Trent Robinson in the coach’s box.

 

Then on Sunday afternoon it’s the Raiders hosting the Broncos, another potential classic. Both love to attack, both have the weapons to do so. But which team has the greater flair if this turns into a shootout? Can Walsh sustain his recent efforts in the pressure cooker of finals footy? Or will Strange things happen? Can Canberra slip back into their teamwork seamlessly after last week’s debacle? At their best, both are solid in the middle and can also defend their line well. Home ground advantage, especially with regard to the crowd? So many potential factors. On the basis of what’s gone before throughout the season, I’ll tip Canberra, knowing that anything could happen.

 

In Round 10 of the NRLW, the only real surprise was the Bulldogs’ win over the Sharks. Otherwise it was pretty much by the book with the Roosters and Broncos again reinforcing their favouritism to fight out the Grand Final.

 

Round 11 will finalise the top 6 teams for the finals with the order of 3rd, 4th and 5th to be decided and only 6th spot still up for grabs between the Titans and Eels. The Roosters will account for the Sharks, the Eels should beat the Bulldogs, the Broncos and the Cowboys play the match of the round where I think the experience of the Broncos will prevail, the Titans are favourites over the Raiders, the Wests Tigers may well end their season with a win over the Warriors, and the Knights are likely to down the Dragons.

 

A big weekend in prospect. Let’s hope the post-match commentary is about the footy and not the referees or the Bunker. Enjoy!

 

 

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