GWS, off the chart: The Statistical Premiership Window and Trend Lines Part II

Here’s Part II of my look into the ‘Premiership Window’ — the remaining 12 teams.

Commentary from the People’s Elbow.


For St Kilda fans, this is about as disturbing as the contents of Sam Gilbert’s laptop…

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2012 to 2013 reads like an Angus Monfries shot on goal. That is to say it defies logic. Although when you consider their 2013 fixture…?

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Although they’re still thereabouts, it may be whole other line likely to cause Sydney some grief this year…

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Bucks doesn’t like the round-about ways of Malthouse. He’d sooner exit the Premiership Window in a nice straight line, right down the corridor.

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Mathematicians refer to the ’09-’10 deviation as the ‘Fevola Curve’.

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Melbourne fans, help me out with this one — does this resemble one of the Blue Runs at Mt Buller?

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Nothing $40 million and a dozen draft concessions won’t fix.

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Enough to drive Tex Walker to drink…

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As if humanity needed more proof of Satan’s reach.

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If David Foster Wallace and James Joyce co-authored the Bible it’d be easier to read than this…

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Under Brendan McCartney, signs are good for another period of falling agonisingly close to a Grand Final.

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They rate in which they have ducked out of the Premiership Window has a touch of the Scott Selwoods about it.

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  1. Superb. This is a classic analysis: it tells me an enormous amount but doesn’t help at all.

    Love it.

    At the risk of asking you to burn the midnight candle, can this be done week by week across the season? Or would that be like getting the CFMEU to come in on budget?

  2. If it was not already obvious graphs by me and analysis very much The People’s Elbow!

  3. “The Elliott Wave Principle posits that collective investor psychology, or crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These mood swings create patterns evidenced in the price movements of markets at every degree of trend or time scale.
    In Elliott’s model, market prices alternate between an impulsive, or motive phase, and a corrective phase on all time scales of trend, as the illustration shows. Impulses are always subdivided into a set of 5 lower-degree waves, alternating again between motive and corrective character, so that waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulses, and waves 2 and 4 are smaller retraces of waves 1 and 3. ”
    Having completed their Wave 2 retracement in 2013, I have every confidence that my Eagles will impulsively move to new Wave 3 market highs in 2014. Finals here we come.

  4. Thanks Damien and Craig. Fascinating stuff.
    Having now seen the St Kilda and Dockers charts – that high top left box will forever be known as the ‘Lyon Lurch’. The Scarlett toe poke and the Fyfe OOB’s were not abnormalities; they were statistical inevitabilities given the scarcity of scoring options that Lyon’s game plan creates against quality opposition.
    Hubris makes us all the architects of our own destruction.

  5. Seems I have been blocked! Must have pissed off someone with these charts.

    Dips, I think to do it each week would be like watching water boil, but I definitely think a half season look would be interesting. Stay tuned.

  6. Don’t we just need the charts on the morning of the GF?

  7. The Saints chart has the feel of a home-made gyrocopter,merrily enjoying the thermals, then the fan stops and the pilot realises he is 5000 ft up in a chair strapped to a rock.

  8. Good analogy CSE. And there is only one parachute.

  9. Whoever wrote the Hawks summary for the wonderful graphy thing can rot in hell. I’m talking to you The People’s Elbow!

    Whoever did the wonderful graphy thing, well done. I think. They were squiggly lines and oval shapes and some lines felt like they were in motion and I like that in graphs.


  10. Hi Gus – I am hoping this approach to tipping the Premier will come in handy at the beginning of the finals (or slightly earlier) when odds might be slightly more generous.

    Rick – if I was more tech savvy I would put them in as animations and make the lines move. I also like graphs that give a sense of movement. I’ll work on it for the mid-season update!

  11. DJL
    After reading both of your Premiership Window pieces,
    I have never been more confused about the season ahead.
    Which is probably a good thing, right?

  12. Hi Smokie

    The numbers are definitely better for looking out of the rear view mirror than for predicting how the trend lines will shift this year. I think its good to not know what the year might hold.

  13. Daniel Flesch says

    @ Rick Kane ,fellow Hawk supporter , i do not share your indignation at the suggestion Hawthorn’s success is evidence of Satan’s reach. The assertion is plainly wrong. Since 1961 i have believed that in fact the Almighty barracks for Hawthorn . Unfortunately He also votes Liberal , but that is a flaw we need to overlook. No deity is perfect.

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