by Declan Dempsey-Young

 

These are, in my opinion, the five key talking points that will significantly determine the winner of the 2025 AFL Grand Final between the Brisbane Lions and the Geelong Cats.

 

 

1.  Before you board the Brisbane plane, don’t forget to tag your luggage

 

If there’s one thing that we have learnt from the three finals Brisbane have been involved in this campaign, it’s that if you don’t tag or quell the influence of Hugh McClugage, it’s game over before it’s even begun. In both finals that Brisbane won to qualify for the Grand Final, against Gold Coast and Collingwood respectively, McCluggage ripped the heart out of both opposing midfields. Across the two finals, he averaged a whopping 35 disposals, 10 clearances and 119 ranking points (AFL.com.au, 2025).

Adversely, in Brisbane’s first final of their campaign, Geelong was able to gain the ascendancy in the midfield thanks in large part to Oisin Mullin’s successful clamping of McCluggage, limiting him to a mere 14 disposals (AFL.com.au, 2025), his lowest return of the season. Because of this, it seems the obvious move is for Mullin to go to McCluggage again to curb his influence. However, knowing the genius of Chris Scott and the mind games he likes to play with his opponents, I believe that he might have another trick up his sleeve.

Daniel Hoyne, the key media spokesperson for Champion Data, the most accurate algorithm currently available for AFL statistics, often references Ryan Crowley’s hard tag of Sam Mitchell in the 2013 Grand Final. Hoyne recalls that everyone, including Hawthorn, knew that Crowley, who was a specialist tagger at the time, was going straight to the Hawthorn Captain. Despite the tag itself being a relative success, with Mitchell being kept to just 12 disposals (AFL.com.au, 2025), Hawthorn was able plan around the impending tag to free up the likes of Jordan Lewis and Luke Hodge to be major influences on the game. Despite winning the Crowley-Mitchell battle, Fremantle lost the war in the end, with Hawthorn eventually winning the Grand Final that day to set up a historic premiership 3-peat.

Similarly for the upcoming Grand Final, the expectation throughout the Brisbane camp and the greater AFL community will be that Mullin will go to McCluggage again because of the level of effectiveness the tag had in their meeting three weeks prior. However, as Chris Scott will be acutely aware of this, don’t be surprised if he decides to shift Mullin’s focus to another in-form Brisbane midfielder, namely Will Ashcroft.

Despite McCluggage’s raw disposal and clearance numbers in the last two weeks being off the charts, Ashcroft’s influence on the result of those games has arguably been more significant. In both finals he slotted two crucial goals and led the ground for score involvements (11 vs. Gold Coast and 9 vs. Collingwood respectively) (AFL.com.au, 2025). Thanks to the wealth of riches in terms of personnel Brisbane has at their disposal in the midfield, Ashcroft has largely gone his short career without having to combat any hard tags. Because of this, there is a higher likelihood that he would be susceptible to direct attention, as players often struggle when first receiving the treatment of a hard tag. Therefore, I believe there is a chance that Chris Scott opts to send Mullin to the reigning Norm Smith Medallist, whilst shifting the responsibility of McCluggage to either Mark O’Connor or Tom Atkins, who did a stellar job in limiting the influence of Hawthorn’s prime mover Jai Newcombe in the preliminary final last weekend.

 

 

2.  Proceed with Caution when facing the Danger

One of the surprise packages of the 2025 finals series so far is the form of 35-year-old Patrick Dangerfield. Despite having a relatively lean year by his lofty standards, the 2016 Brownlow Medallist turned back the clock last weekend versus Hawthorn, producing one of, if not the best, individual finals performance of all time. Playing in a primarily forward-half role, the eight time All-Australian notched up 31 disposals (including 20 of those being contested), 3 goals and 13 score involvements (AFL.com.au, 2025). This performance is not only a testament to the professionalism of Dangerfield himself in being able to produce such a performance at his age, but also to Geelong’s conditioning team in priming their injury prone players for the pointy end of the season.

This colossal performance by the aging superstar begs the question for Brisbane, how on earth do you stop Danger? For me, the obvious matchup for him is Brandon Starcevich. He’s quick enough to go with Dangerfield on the lead and has the defensive capabilities to prevent him from winning too many forward-half contests. This is going to be a huge test and opportunity for Starcevich to prove his worth if this matchup eventuates. As currently being reported, the premiership defender has been offered a six-year contract worth upwards of 900k a year from West Coast (Fox Sports, 2025). If Starcevich can limit the influence of one of the game’s modern greats on the biggest stage, it might convince the Eagles to add a couple more zeroes onto their offer. And, more importantly, it will go a long way in determining the result of the Grand Final.

 

 

3.  Don’t get ‘Zorked’

 

David King, or as Kane Cornes often refers to him, the “best analyst in football”, infamously said earlier this season that if you want to beat Brisbane, you cannot get ‘Zorked’. This term refers to the Brisbane’s ability to create scores from half back, most notably through the weapon of Dayne Zorko’s piercing ball use through the corridor. In Brisbane and Geelong’s most recent meeting in the qualifying final, Geelong produced a unique and effective way of limiting the influence of one of Brisbane’s primary ball movers. On the night, Zorko didn’t necessarily have a direct opponent responsible for limiting his influence, which was reflected by him amassing 35 disposals and 776 meters gained. Despite these large numbers, however, Geelong was able to set up the ground defensively in front of Zorko to defend the corridor, often forcing the two-time All Australian to go slow and wide with his ball movement. This played right into Geelong’s hands, as they were able to defend the ground with a greater level of effectiveness, significantly restricting Brisbane’s ability to generate scores from their defensive half.

As mentioned earlier regarding the potential shift of the McCluggage match-up, Chris Scott loves to play mind games with his opponents, so don’t be surprised if the dual premiership coach opts to give Zorko a more direct opponent this time around aimed at curtailing his influence. If Geelong were to deicide to pursue this option, the match-up to me that makes the most sense is Brad Close, who has the leg speed and work rate to go with Zorko. He also crucially can get involved in scoring chains once Geelong wins the ball forward of centre, meaning Zorko will have to be more accountable defensively.

Another potential matchup for Zorko is the former Gold Coast and Carlton forward Jack Martin. In the preliminary final, Martin spent a significant portion of the game with Karl Amon as his direct opponent, who plays a similar role for Hawthorn that Zorko does for Brisbane. Unlike Close, who is more of a direct tag type option, Martin instead punished Amon by slipping out the back of the Hawthorn defender, finding himself in acres of space inside 50 on countless occasions. This potential matchup for Zorko that would make him even more defensively accountable and may even force a restructure of the Brisbane defence.

 

4.  You can’t go under it, can’t go around it, you’ve got to go through it

 

One of the key problems Geelong is going to have to solve to win the 2025 grand final is how to surpass the defensive wall that is Harris Andrews. The three-time All Australian Defender has been in stellar form this season, averaging 7.5 intercept possessions, 7.4 spoils and 3.2 intercept marks a game (AFL.com.au, 2025). These intercept marks are crucial in setting up Brisbane’s uncontested marking game. Brisbane average 104.8 marks a game this season, with no other even averaging above 100 (AFL.com.au, 2025). This ‘death by a thousand cuts’ method probes for weaknesses in the opposition’s team defence and has been proven to be extremely effective over the course of their campaign. To prevent this marking game from eventuating, Geelong must stop it at the source by limiting the aerial influence of Harris Andrews. The method that most teams gravitate towards to achieve this is by opting for slow and methodical ball movement inside 50 around the boundary line, in essence trying to go around the wall of Harris. This method plays right into Brisbane’s hands, as this type of ball movement is extremely easy to defend against. Instead, Geelong should prioritise fast and unpredictable ball movement going inside 50, trusting in the aerial capabilities of Shannon Neale and Jeremy Cameron to bring the ball to ground so the likes of Miers, Dempsey and Mannagh can go to work. This will result in a greater number of scoring opportunities for Geelong and will provide Harris Andrews and the rest of the Brisbane defence with a greater test of their credentials.

 

5.  Who steps up for the fallen soldiers?

 

Both Brisbane and Geelong were dealt cruel preliminary final injury blows on the eve of this year’s Grand Final. Geelong will be without their defensive general Tom Stewart, and Brisbane will have to fill the void left by Midfielder Jarrod Berry.

For Geelong, the snowball effect of losing Stewart is significant. It forces the rest of the key defensive stocks to play on taller, more capable opponents. The player that has really has to step up for me, however, is Zach Guthrie. After Stewart went down in the preliminary final, Guthrie was forced to take over Stewart’s role of being the quarterback of the Geelong defence. Guthrie performed admirably in this role, finishing the night with 21 disposals, 10 intercept possessions and 6 rebound 50s (AFL.com.au, 2025). If Geelong are going to fill the void left by Tom Stewart again this weekend, however, Guthrie is going to have produce a similar level of performance to help generate Geelong’s ball movement.

Despite not being as much of a household name as Stewart, the impact of losing Jarrod Berry cannot be understated. Berry was crucial on the wing in Brisbane’s win in the semi-final over Gold Coast, amassing 27 disposals, 8 marks and a goal (AFL.com.au, 2025). He was on track for a similar level of performance in the preliminary final against Collingwood, finishing with 11 disposals before being subbed out of the game halfway through the second quarter. Sufficed to say, one of the lesser lights in the Brisbane midfield is going to have to step up in his absence. For me, that player is the highly talented 18-year-old Levi Ashcroft.

Prior to the commencement of the season, there was serious levels of hype about the ceiling of Levi. He was largely thought to be a shoo-in for this year’s rising star winner, with the award instead going to Fremantle’s Murphy Reid. Many even boldly predicted Levi to surpass his brother Will by career’s end. Although he hasn’t had a bad year by any stretch, his numbers and impact on games have been somewhat underwhelming when taking into consideration the hype around his potential. For this reason, I believe the absence of Berry provides a perfect opportunity for Levi Ashcroft to step up and prove his talent in the biggest game of the year.

 

 

 

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