Gigs’ Stats: Mega mid-season stat declaration

Forget all the other mid-season reviews. Here are the four most important things so far gleaned from this season:

1.    FOOTY TIPSTERS TIPPING TIP – WHEN TO PICK CARLTON

So many factors come into play when deciding which team to pick on a Friday afternoon. Is player X in this week? Is player Y carrying an injury? Does Team A traditionally lose to Team B? Is there anything in the numbers that can help me get my tips right?

Actually, there is. It’s not in the NUMBERS though. It’s in the LETTERS. Or more specifically, it’s in the NUMBER of LETTERS. And even more specifically, it concerns Carlton. To determine the likelihood of the Blues winning in any given round, all you need to do is add the total number of letters in the surnames of the 22 players playing that week. If the number is 140 or greater, Carlton has a 75% chance of coming out in front. But if the combined letter total is LESS than 140, the Blues are no chance at all. So far this year, in the four matches that Carlton has fielded teams containing surnames totalling under 140 letters, they’ve lost every time. In their other eight games the Blues have won six times and performed very creditably in losses to Hawthorn and St Kilda.

That gives us some idea of when NOT to pick Carlton, but can we refine the process a little further? In the words of Barack the Builder (or is that Bob Obama?), “yes, we can”. If the Blues field a team of 140 letters or more they will win if the game is NOT played on a Saturday. If it’s played on a Saturday they will lose, regardless of their surname total, UNLESS they are playing a team from Queensland, in which case they WILL win.

So there you go tipsters, now you know when to pick, and when NOT to pick, the Blues. Pretty simple really.

2.    THE TRADITIONAL FOOTY LADDER

As we have seen above, Carlton don’t particularly like playing on Saturdays, which for non-Blues fans, only adds more weight to the push for a higher number of Saturday games. Personally I yearn for the old days of “six games on a Saturday”. Which makes me wonder – what if we only counted the results of the games played on the traditional footy days – Saturdays and public holidays? Here then, is how the ladder would look if only those games were included:

3.    THE QUARTER LADDER

People often ask me “Gigs, what has been the most common number of goals scored in all quarters so far this year?” Actually no-one has asked me that question just yet. But if they do, I’m here ready with my answer. And that answer is 3. Out of the 744 quarters so far played this year (it’s really 372 but 744 when you count each quarter for both teams), 169 of them have had one or both teams scoring 3 goals. Unsurprisingly, 2 and 4 goals are next on the list.

Perhaps a little more surprisingly, there have been 30 quarters so far this year in which teams have not scored a goal. And only one team, St Kilda, has achieved the single-quarter pinnacle, the 10-goal burst. Below is the “Goals Per Quarter” Ladder for the season so far:

4.    I AM WHAT I AM (OR I ANAGRAM WHAT I AM)

Several football identities were asked to sum themselves up using only the letters of their names. Here’s a sample of some of the responses.

•    Hawthorn’s Simon Taylor made an apparent attempt to explain why he’s been suspended more than once: “I’m too snarly”

•    A spokesperson for Tasmania gave a clue as to why any team from there should be known as the Devils: “I am Satan”.

•    Dennis Commetti chose to reflect on his feelings about Channel 9 losing the footy broadcast rights to Seven: “I’m content. Is Ed?”

•    Angus Monfries was perhaps making reference to his family heritage: “I’m a Fergussonn”.

•    North’s Matt Riggio made a somewhat alarming admission: “Grog! I’m at it!”

•    Lindsay Thomas’ reply was just plain sad: “I am shy and lost”.

•    Simon Black revealed a love for roulette: “I’m on blacks!”

•    Brisbane teammate Daniel Merrett showed that he too loves to play with words: “I’m a letter nerd!”

•    Patrick McGinnity made a puzzling reference to how the Eagles might approach the rest of this season: “I’m tanking (cryptic)”.

•    Sharrod Wellingham’s Collingwood representative apparently didn’t quite understand the question and used only his surname. He also made a spelling error: “I’m well hang”

•    St Kilda’s (David) Armitage hasn’t quite made it to his team’s final 22 this season but it clearly hasn’t affected his confidence: “I am great”.

But perhaps the final word should go to the AFL’s CEO. Andrew Demetriou is used to getting knocked from all quarters but he always takes it in his stride: “Ow! I am undeterred”…