Finals Week 2 – Sal’s Preview: Cloaks are off and Daggers are out

Greetings All,

 

For a while I thought that Carlton were the only team having exit interviews with all the media focussed on them last week.  What a relief for them that it is Essendon’s turn this week with Zach Merrett not only informing the club of his desire to leave but also meeting with an opposition coach with exposed form in this arena.

 

While there is much indignation and defiance from the Bombers hierarchy and justifiably so, the question to be asked is whether or not this is normal or the way of the world now?  Is the fact that Sam Mitchell’s meetings with Oscar Allen and Zach have become public that much of an issue?  Is it not of more concern that Dean Cox won’t fess up to meeting with Charlie Curnow?  Wouldn’t it have been better for Carlton to be certain that TDK was heading off to St Kilda half way through the season instead of the charade through the rest of it.

 

The NRL seems to function perfectly fine even with players signing on for another club well in advance of the completion of the season.  I understand that the culture of the AFL is different – or is it?  Is it really just a charade to appease the fans and create innuendo and content for the media?  The existing pretense of waiting till the season is over to declare your intentions has gone.  Clubs are chasing recruits all year long, agents are leaking information to the media to create tension.  Let’s get over the history and histrionics and let some honesty come to the fore.

 

With all that stuff going on who would know we have a couple of finals to contest.  Every year we have to work out whether the Qualifying loser was really that bad and the Elimination Final winner that good.  The two games up for decision this weekend are perfect examples.

 

Swooped (57%) v Giant Killers (43%)

 

Make no mistake Adelaide was pretty bad.  Completely overcome by the pressure from Collingwood and smashed in the coaches box.  The good thing on their side was that the Coach didn’t sugar coat it and they have another chance.  He should be smarter for the experience and the team should know what finals intensity is.  They have trusted the squad from last week again, only bringing in Rachele now that he is fit.

 

The Hawks only make the one change with Calsher Dear injured, Mitch Lewis a more than adequate replacement.  They come into this contest bearing the scars of the equivalent game last year against Port Adelaide.  Or was it a learning experience?

 

Match ups will be critical here.  How do the Crows look after Amon and Impey?  Neal-Bullen and Keays appear suitable matchups, but then who looks after Sicily.  Stopping the Hawthorn transition will be critical.  At the other end Adelaide don’t move the ball with such aggression, their key source is from the midfield.  The Pies contained them last week, expect the likes of Dawson and Soligo to respond.  Ultimately for the Crows it will be whether Thilthorpe, Walker and Fogarty have an impact.

 

Expect Adelaide will present with a much greater intensity and if they can produce their best they win.  On the other hand the Hawks were not far off last year, they look to be well-balanced at both ends of the ground and have the personnel to shut down the Crows key players.  The flip of the coin comes down for the Hawks by 8 points.

 

Dial ‘O’ (72%) v What’s the Point? (28%)

 

How broken are the Lions?  In addition to the loss of Neale they find Hipwood is also done for the season.  Is it recoverable?  They face the buoyant Suns revelling in their first finals campaign with a nothing to lose attitude.

 

Brisbane also bring in McInerney, he could be critical to the outcome here.  The Lions can essentially double team on Witts and wear him down plus both Oscar and Darcy Fort are handy up forward.  That should assist Logan Morris who has found it more difficult having to cope with the best defender.  Fagan will need to get their defensive match ups right – they had no answer to Jeremy Cameron last week.  Do they make Harris Andrews responsible for King or play interceptor?

 

The Suns key will be to lock down the run of Zorko and Wilmot, they create so much and are so aggressive taking the ball through the middle of the ground.  Mind you Rioli and Noble are no slouches either.  Ultimately the midfields will be critical here, the Rowell-Dunkley contest will be a ripper.  They both bat deep, but just think the Lions go a bit deeper.

 

Gold Coast smashed Brisbane in their last encounter at The Mansion, this being at the Gabba gives the Lions an edge.  As poor as the Lions were last week, they have responded strongly to recent losses and expect them to get over the line this week by 23 points.

 

Track Time

 

We are at headquarters this week for the Makybe Diva Stakes.  It’s a great program with a solid support card including The Archer which provides a golden ticket into the Melbourne Cup.

 

We open proceedings with a capacity field charging down the straight over 1100m.  She’s an Artist (R1, #10) looked great winning over this trip against 3yo fillies and might be a star but the price looks too skinny to get involved here.  The colts go over the same journey in a great contest, Legacy Bound (R2, #3) comes in fresh, undefeated and should be up to this.  Provided we get a firm surface happy to be with Vinrock (R3, #1) a group one winner over this journey.  We get another big field in the Cap D’Antibes and it’s wide open, note Signature Scent (R4, #12) was well supported last start and gets M Zahra on board.  Would be fussy about the price though.  Rise at Dawn (R5, #1) is 3 from 4 first up and was competing at the top level in his previous campaign.  Has plenty of weight to carry but looks up to this.  Star Patrol (R6, #5) returns from a wind operation, if all is OK he can win.  Has a great record down the straight.

 

We kick off the quaddie with The Archer with a run in the Melbourne Cup as the big prize.  Revelare (R7, #4) was winning for fun in the Autumn and got up last start, looks well placed here to get his ticket.

 

Race 8 – Makybe Diva Stakes (G1, 1600m, WFA)

 

A great mare is the most likely winner of the race dedicated to another great mare.  Via Sistina (5) failed in this race last year on a heavy track, that is highly unlikely here and expect her to be too good.  Her main threat is another mare in Aeliana (6) who was not far away in their last encounter and is a winner over this journey.  Tom Kitten (2) is the unknown after being scratched at the barrier in the Memsie, his form last campaign was outstanding and Mr Brightside (1) will be thereabouts as always.

 

Selections – 5-6-2-1

 

Oh Too Good (R9, #10) returns and is handy fresh, has some quality opposition but she is pretty good herself.  After promising the world Globe (R10, #4) has not quite delivered, but is still 5 from 12 and Zahra sticks on.  Will need a few more in the quaddie though.

 

Quaddie

 

Will trust that Via Sistina is still the best mare in the world.

 

Leg 1 – 3, 4, 6, 7, 12

Leg 2 – 5

Leg 3 – 3, 7, 10, 11

Leg 4 – 4, 6, 8, 19(em3)

 

80 Combinations, $30 investment, returns 37.5% of the dividend.

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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