George Grossek’s analysis actually read very well in the lead-up to the first week of the finals. The only problem: he tipped four losers.
But he’s undeterred, and he’s sent in some thoughts on the semis.
Dear John
What an interesting weekend of finals just completed and what will this weekend hold?
Just two things are certain – Collingwood and Geelong will play in the Preliminary Finals next weekend, but who will they play? History tells us that the two teams that lost the qualifying finals generally beat the winners of elimination finals from week one.
In 2024 we had 12 teams that could make finals and everyone was saying how even the competition was. This year we had two divisions. A top nine and a bottom nine.
With the finalists apparently so even, Week 1 results were problematic. Adelaide looked like they had stage fright while Collingwood’s finals experience stood them in good stead.
Mark Blicavs held firm in the ruck ensuring the Lions did not get first use of the ball. Their pressure and run was magnificent from the first bounce. It is hard to see the Lions winning three in a row now given their inconsistency and injuries. Geelong’s biggest problem will be deciding whether to play Stanley, should he be available for the Preliminary Final.
Hawks looked great then rattled when the Giants got a run on. If they can’t stop sides from kicking 4 or 5 in a row they cannot win the flag but they have a team capable of winning. Winning four in a row in the finals would be tough.
The Suns had a “we have nothing to lose attitude” while Fremantle’s run to the finals suggested they were emotionally done after winning against the Bulldogs. The Suns could be the same against the Lions this weekend.
Expect a better performance from the Lions and the Crows this weekend. That the Hawks and Suns had hard-fought wins will help the beaten finalists in Week 2 of the finals. Adelaide v Hawthorn is a true 50:50 game while theLlions are 60:40 against the Suns. Witts could be the difference.
My revised rankings for Week 2 of the finals.
- Geelong
- Collingwood
- Adelaide
- Brisbane
- Hawthorn
- Gold Coast
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