Finals Week 1 Preview: Staying abreast of the situation

Greetings All,

Are we ready for footy again after the pre-finals bye?  Personally think it loses momentum for the fans but that could have a lot to do with personal circumstances after the Blues fell short of participation.  What we have seen since the bye was introduced are more failures of the qualifying final winners progressing to the Grand Final – how much does that have to do with losing momentum by have two out of three weeks off?  All will be revealed over the next few weeks.

 

Not so Great Dayne ($2.32) vs Dusted Off ($1.74)

A passionate Tiger suggested earlier in the season that Dusty will have some time off and come back when it counts.  Lo and behold he is back to take on the Lions in a cut-throat final.  In fact the Tigers are pretty much at full strength aside from Dylan Grimes.  On the other hand Brisbane are missing a few critical players and have selected a debutant in Darcy Wilmot.  In their last meeting the Tiger forwards got away from the Lions with Andrews in particular giving Lynch too much space.  He will be tighter this time, however the speed of the Richmond forward line will present problems for the likes of Rich and Gardiner.  At the other end Brisbane are loaded with potency but it just does not fire enough, it’s tough for forwards but somehow one of Cameron, Daniher or Hipwood needs to put their mark on this game for Brisbane to get up.  Playing at the Gabba is in their favour and probably handy for the skipper Dayne Zorko who will get some heat from the Tigers but home fans will be gentle.  Overall though Richmond have had the most potent forward line over the last few weeks and should prove too much for the Lions to get home by 34 points.

 

Andrews ($1.55) vs Perottet ($2.78)

The premiers embraced earlier in despite their respective capitals clashing on Friday Night!  Melbourne at the G holds little fear for the Swans who have dominated this match-up for a while now winning 21 of the 32 games this century, more importantly 10 of the last 12.  Whilst it holds no fear it counts for naught.  Both teams come in with confidence from their last few weeks, Sydney in particular found their mojo and have been playing a great brand of footy and not reliant on Buddy up forward.  The Demons have got back to their stingy best with Steven May commanding the defence, it has more than made up for the lack of potency at the other end.  Perhaps we will see Tom McDonald return to provide a stronger contest than what has been provided by Ben Brown and take some pressure off Gawn and Jackson when they push forward.  The other factor for this game is the weather – with a good chance this will be played in the wet, it may affect some selections but both sides have players who go well on a heavy 8.  While not ignoring Sydney’s record over Melbourne, the win during the season was when the Demon defence was depleted and their form had dropped.  Going for Dees in a tight one by 9 points.

 

Probable Cause ($1.41) vs Avis ($3.30)

Not sure what was wrong with either a 2:30 start or 7:20, but Gil chose to split the difference and get everyone’s ire.  No matter what Geelong and Collingwood in a final is always enthralling.  Much spoken about the Pies record in close games – comes down to something pretty simple – they just try harder!  Do the finals amplify it up a notch for everyone to match them or do they have another gear?  The inclusion of Taylor Adams certainly provides effort.  Plenty also spoken about the Cats and finals and with a fair bit of justification, what will make 2022 different?  The riskier and aggressive game style probably helps, the resting of veteran key players probably helps, younger players in key roles probably helps – we will only find out over the next few weeks.  In this match I see the defences holding the key – can the Pies contain Hawkins and Cameron while also looking after the likes of Stengle and Close?  At the other end Stewart and de Koning lead a strong aerial defence, but the Pie forwards work at ground level.  While the Pies have defied stats all year there are a couple that stand out here.  Both sides are strong on interception but Geelong are far more efficient when they go forward and reckon Cameron or Hawkins could get off the chain.  The stats would say Geelong easily but Collingwood defy that and will make close, but not close enough to see them go down by 13 points.

 

Strung Out ($1.56) vs Unliberated  ($2.72)

The tale of two hamstrings with Fyfe and Libba both unable to get on the park.  The finals experience of the Bulldogs could be a key factor with the Dockers playing their first final since 2015, finals on the road also hold no fear.  Freo though have a terrific record at home and have been in the mix all year.  Overall the Dockers defence has been strong all year and while Naughton is a major threat, reckon the rest are covered.  The differentiator here might be a third game player in Sam Darcy – he went forward against Hawthorn and was a major factor in getting the Dogs home.  He is tall and athletic and a very tough match up, being a young player how he stands up to finals pressure will be the question.  At the other end Freo’s tall forwards are flaky at best, on their day Taberner and Lobb can pull apart ordinary teams but are not consistent enough and contribute little if they are not winning the footy.  At ground level the forwards are handy but it is also where the Bulldog defenders like Daniel, Dale and Williams excel.  Just think the experience of the Dogs might win out by 23 points.

 

Track Time

Last week’s bye in the footy saw the opening Group Ones for the season go by and we have a bye for them this week.  There might not be Group Ones but a few Group Two events in Sydney and Melbourne that will be worth observing before the Cats and Pies go at it.  Here are a couple worth paying attention to with a view to the next couple of months.  The Feehan (MV R4) has a small but quality field, Mr Brightside (2) is fit and firing but all the other runners have other major targets in spring.  Inspirational Girl (6) is the one I will be watching with intent.  The McEwen (MV R5) is similar with Coolangatta (7) favoured with 50kg but $2.30 is too short among this line-up.  Prince of Boom (MV R7, #8) comes down from Queensland with a boom, his dad and uncle were beauties and he might be better.

Randwick is the Sydney venue and we get a few good ones coming back.  Eduardo (1) and Masked Crusader (2) are the known entities in the Concorde (Rand R5), keen to see who might be a new challenger to Nature Strip and watching Andermatt (8) closely.  The Tramway (Rand R7) features Zaaki (1) keen to see how Profondo (4) goes backing up from last week.  The Chelmsford (Rand R8) has my interest for the future, Benaud (14) and Montefilia (15) are right in this but reckon they could feature strongly in Melbourne in late October and November.

A Quaddie for Moonee Valley – no gimmes here

Leg 1 – 3, 4, 5, 6, 9

Leg 2 – 3, 4, 7, 8, 17

Leg 3 – 5, 6, 9, 11

Leg 4 – 10, 13, 15

300 Combinations, $30 Investment returns 10% of the dividend.

Cheers, Sal

 

To return to our Footy Almanac home page click HERE.

 

Our writers are independent contributors. The opinions expressed in their articles are their own. They are not the views, nor do they reflect the views, of Malarkey Publications.

 

Do you enjoy the Almanac concept?

And want to ensure it continues in its current form, and better? To help things keep ticking over please consider making your own contribution.

 

Become an Almanac (annual) member – CLICK HERE.

 

 

Leave a Comment

*