Final Day preview – Ahhhh! The Carnival is Over

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Greetings All,

 

The marathon is nearly over but the international cricket season has begun.

The Melbourne Cup produced a result for the ages and great stories all round but none more so than for Michelle Payne being the first female jockey to win the great race.  A fantastic achievement because Michelle was never likely to get a ride on anything shorter than $20.  She told her doubters to Get Stuffed, the reality is that she has been stuffing her doubters up for quite a while.  Tuesday’s win added to the two wins she had on La Passe of late that has knocked so many out of the Quaddie, mine included.  There are always a couple of extra points on offer for her city mounts and she wins on plenty, but how many of us take the value?  She has butchered a few and it takes much longer for the punters to get over those compared the any butchering from the likes of Oliver, Williams, Bowman, etc – and they can do just as good a butchering!  A great win, made by a great ride by a great jockey – Well Done Ms M Payne.

Aside from the fairy tale the race was a debacle.  The track conditions resulted in jockeys not prepared to take any chances as they hugged the favoured inside running leading to a muddling pace and very tight racing.  The discussion on the track condition for the first two days of the carnival will carry on and undoubtedly be revisited in 51 weeks’ time.  However their needs to be a bit more discussion on the actions of one of the world leading riders in Frankie Dettori.  The carnage he caused as he shifted his mount out carelessly and dangerously ruined the hopes of at least six horses if not more.  The penalty he received was well short of the mark for such an act in our biggest race.  He was probably paid more than the 20 large for coming second on Max Dynamite and the month suspension allows him back in time for the big Hong Kong meetings, he at least should have been forced to missed that carnival rather than the one month holiday he was probably going to take anyway.

Amongst all that we have a Test match that has begun.  A poor start from New Zealand bowling in a manner that was all too familiar for anyone who watch the Australian attack in England, could bowl a few good ‘uns but there was enough rubbish to ease the pressure on the batsmen.  Plenty of knockers of McCullum’s captaincy when trying to mix things up with some unconventional fields, suspect the rest of the team knew of the plan so the bowlers should have been able to cope with it.  Not sure where the critics would stand if he was successful, but he wasn’t and will now have to cope.  He has never been one to take a backward step so I look forward to some more of his innovation, but he needs the rest of the team to back it up with execution.  The Aussie bats dined out on a menu of average bowling, a good track and lighting outfield.  Importantly they did not make too many errors and made the bowlers pay for theirs.  We await to see what Starc, Johnson and Hazelwood will deliver which so far looks too good for the Balck Caps.

 

Final Day at Flemington

A day the VRC has built by moving a couple of key races in particular the Darley Classic which promises to be exactly that.  They have been tortured with the track where we have gone from the ridiculous to the ridiculous.  The first two days saw the inside rail run hot, then in the final race on Thursday the winner of the last won on the outside in a circle race.  Expect to see more favourable going toward the out portions of the track.

 

Race 3 – The Queen’s Cup (G3, 2600m, Qty HCP)

Everything lines up here –  A race named in honour of Lizzie and she has a runner in it who has been running pretty well – some doubt about the conditions but Bold Sniper (5) looks fair value with the weight advantage over the top three who all carry 58kg.  One of those is from the Godolphin international team who didn’t make it into the cup in Secret Number (3), they have a great strike rate in this race with those that don’t get into the cup.  Dandino (2) was very good in the Geelong Cup and Beaten Up (1) has good form from Sydney which once again has proven very good this week.  Small field but very competitive race.

Selections – 5-3-2-1

 

Race 6 – Darley Classic (G1, 1200m, WFA)

We lost couple on the way to one of the most anticipated races of the carnival, we’d love to see these on a good surface but the conditions presented are what they will have to deal with.  The hot pot Chautauqua (2) will take some beating, the track conditions certainly make him more vulnerable than usual and they are lining up to beat him.  His conqueror from last year Terravista (4) has to contend with barrier 1 but can handle the going, Srikandi (8) got close last time also has an inside draw but can handle the heavy conditions.  Buffering (1) won this race this race two years ago and can handle the going as can Delectation (7) who is in terrific form down the straight and gets an outside barrier which looks should be an advantage.  Plenty of spruiking for Lumosty (10) fresh on the scene while Flamberge (6) and Tiger Tees (5) both relish the heavy going.  Sticking with Chautauqua thinking the challenge will just get better odds, but very challenging for the next places.

Selection 2-7-4-10

 

Race 7 – Emirates Stakes (G1, 1600m, HCP)

Weight and conditions against the toppy in Lucky Hussler (1) and DK Weir was not talking up his chances, by the same token he was also just hoping for top ten for Prince of Penzance on Tuesday!  He has a terrific field against him including Turn Me Loose (3) and Bow Creek (4) who defeated him at the Valley, reckon they might reverse the order with the weight swing to Bow Creek (4).  Disposition (5) just does not run a bad race, Politeness (11) gets in on a low weight having won her last three.  Also like the Bruce Jenner inspired He or She (16) and Amovatio (10) in the search for value and there has been plenty of value turn up this week!  It doesn’t end there, but we have to put on some limits.

Selections – 4-11-3-1

 

Race 8 – The Matriarch Stakes (G2, 2000m, Mares SWP)

Lucia Valentina (1) is a mudder (was her mudder a mudder?) and will revel in the slush, but she has to do it with 59.5 kgs which I suspect will get her beaten.  But picking which one is the challenge.  Zarzali (13) won well on Saturday and looks well suited, G Boss will need to find the path but he is more than capable.  Imperial Lass (12) was 3rd to Winx in the Queensland Oaks which is good enough for this and Casino Dancer (5) brings some fair form down from Sydney and gets JMac.

Selections -13-1-12-5

 

Quaddie Time

Has been tough all week but we persist to find those four magic numbers.  Not any easier on Saturday and strategy very dependent on whether you think Chautauqua just wins or if he can be beaten.  Going with a dual strategy to account for both.  Quaddie 1 – the grey horse wins and we broaden the other legs.  Quaddie 2 there are many more chances and we’ll skinny up the other legs.

 

Quaddie 1

Leg 1 – 2

Leg 2 – 1,2,3,4,5,10,11,16

Leg 3 – 1,5,7,8,12,13

Leg 4 – 2,7

80 combinations, $20 investment for 25% of the dividend.

 

Quaddie 2

Leg 1 – 1,2,4,7,8,10

Leg 2 – 1,3,4,5,11

Leg 3 – 1,12,13

Leg 4 – 2,7

180 combinations, $10 investment for 5.6% of the dividend.

 

Signing off for a few weeks before the bumper Christmas issue in time for the test against the Windies.  I hope we get some competitive cricket before then, but have some serious doubts.  The prospect of a day/night test in Adelaide will be important for the future of the game.  Meanwhile the Hammers are in lofty territory and Melbourne teams are going well in the A-league.  For the neddies the carnival will roll on to Perth for the Winterbottom, Railway and Kingston Town Classic, not forgetting the Sandown meeting next week which is usually pretty good.

 

Hope you have a great weekend,

 

Till Christmas,

Go Blues, Go Hammers, Go Chautauqua!

 

Cheers, Sal

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Open an account and receive bonus bets.

 

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