It is Slipper week. The form needs a look, then a study followed by dissection. There are showers about so the track conditions must be monitored. Rosehill always presents a fantastic occasion and, once again, there are terrific fields ( 5 Group Ones in a row!) and so many possibilities. Big characters are again to the fore…Gai (of course), Singo (ditto) and, ringadingding, The Pumper has been on fire and looks to have a good book again.
Here’s a Wednesday introduction to the races and some of the quandaries to be confronted:-
SR1- NEVILLE SELLWOOD STAKES (2000m, G3) Lights of Heaven (1) @ 2/1. Pumper on Holyonny (7) for Waller @ 9/2.
SR2- (1400m, 2yo) Bjorn Baker’s Fuerza (1) is the early spruik. Pumper rides Thump (9). Watch on 14.
SR3- TULLOCH STAKES (2000m, G2, 3yo colts + geldings) Anyone else wearying of High Shot (15), still riding on the back of a devastating win in a restricted Cranbourne Night fixture? There was (another) educated push last start – how about waiting for him to win first? Philippi may not have won this prep but he has been in some pretty hot company and this looks really suitable. Snowden’s Proverb (2) is the likely fav and always be wary of Gai/Nash (8).
SR4- STORM QUEEN STAKES (trading at the Vinery; 2000m, G1, 3yo fillies) Many of these fillies progressed from the 1400m 2yo on this day last year. Dear Demi (2), for Cassidy, to beat Norzita (3).
SR5- H.E. TANCRED STAKES (now trading as BMW; 2400m, G1, WFA) Fiveandahalfstar (12) deserves his quote. Maluckyday (5) looks to be back but might have an eye on a Handicap soon. Le Roi (9) will be massive odds, is poorly “in”, but looks a horse of great potential.
SR6- QUEEN OF THE TURF STAKES(1500m, G1, WFA, fillies + mares) More Joyous (1). A really good race but she is better than that. Go you good thing!
SR7- GOLDEN SLIPPER STAKES (1200m, G1, 2yo) Here’s the dilemma. Overreach is clearly the best credentialed. Balance that against Barrier 1 and odds on. I say “look on”. A fascinating acceptor is Il Cavallo which won impressively on debut at modest Sandown last Wednesday.
SR8- GEORGE RYDER STAKES (1500m, G1, WFA) A terrific race – Happy Trails, for example, won the G1 Emirates 2 starts back and will be 100/1 – but Pierro (11) is an amazing colt. 11, 1, 9.
SR9- SEBRING STAKES (1200m, G3, Quality) big field. Tiger Tees (5) will find this easier than recent assignments. Put Hidden Warrior (20) in multis at the 50/1 – love the Paul Perry polish fresh at a Carnival!
What a day! Lots of time to discuss the punting possibilities. I’ll be monitoring the site and, of course, swinging the bag on the Moonee Valley rails Saturday. Look forward to any input.
Good luck!
Agree with More Joyous, another plus is sensational 2nd up record.Wrong that the BMW will not be a leg of the Quaddy, a great plus for Fiveandhalf with Robl off and Bowman on, last start Robl must have thought he was riding Tulloch.
No fan of Slippers(very Sydney,too much reward for too little substance) and would never go plonk on a 2yo in quaddy so will include a few like Guelph along with the shorty.
I will be down at Werribee watching one of Fiveandahalfstar,Hvasston and Super Cools opponents trying to break his duck in a 15k maiden.
Good luck down with the ducks. Notice that Moody’s nom won on Wednesday so that is one less to beat.
Tom and I are going to Kyneton for a drive tomorrow so happy for any tips there also.
Overreach from gate one will have to overrace. I like the form lines around Criterion, Sidestep and Fast ‘n’ Rocking. (Black Opal, Todman)
Reckon that the Guelph form and odds are very interesting. We started the season convinced that Snowden’s youngsters were the best – and he seemed to rate Guelph.
If it rains then there are plenty of chances!!
Anyone have a theory on G.Boss – taking rides at the good Ascot meeting on Saturday when there’s Groups galore in Sydney?
Crio,
Bossy is on the short priced fav’s in 2 of the WA stakes races and on a quick look at Sydney it’s hard to see any he would have been likely to get a mount on with much hope because he’s not going to be getting on any of Gai’s, Wallers or Hawkes main chances.
Re Slipper, I reckon Skip is on the mark. The Fav will need to work hard to hold the lead and if it does will have to do a lot more than an easy lead and sprint home the last 400.It would have been much better off in 5 or 6 or even a bit wider, there are some quick horses and if it isn’t really well away could be 3 back on the fence. I’d be happy to have a bit on Guelph or Romantic Moon to run on strongly at the end.
Some funny early odds on other races e.g BMW. Hathras is about 7/1 in a great race and won a 1 metro win race at last run albeit by 9 lens but…crazy odds. I’d be looking to Maluckyday most likely and wait for the Sydney Cup for Le Roi because if he runs , he will win it.
Got a lot of form to get through this week.
No early punting Jock – real worries about the track conditions so you’ll need contingencies
I was suprised to see that barrier one has won 6 of the last 18 Slippers. Nonetheless, like others, I can’t take the short odds from this draw. Overreach will have to work early and that will bring her down. I also think Guelph is the one to be wary of plus Pumper/Gai’s Sweet Idea.
Budge,
Interesting point about barrier 1 but none of them led, possible exception Crystal Lily but I thought it was outside the lead which would have been a good trick from barrier 1, even though she finished about 20 wide.
Crio,
I didn’t think of rain but checking BOM site the forecast is for 1-2 mil tomorrow so not much.
ATC. say Dead4, no doubt Slow ay best.
Rosehill is west
Rosehill Track Manager gave it a Slow 7 this morning
Looks like a Heavy track chopping up late. The last is very interesting – Second Effort, a superior wet tracker, was knocked down at the start last week.
I have struggled with the form for all meetings for the last two days and have decided that procrastination is part of aging as I cant find anything of note to bet on Saturday
The old adage of good horses win races should apply but there are too many “shorties” around and too many chances in hard races.
The local trainers dont have much of note running and Durics gone to Sydney for one ride only (may have a small wager but not with confidence) and Yendalls suspended.
Jock- how was Oakbank? I saw David Jolly at the beach today and he told me nothing went right for what he thought should have been a good carnival. David Whitney ( training here too) who you would remember has a horse first up in Adelaide but its a hard one to win
Crio- has all the talk about corruption died down in Melbourne or is it simmering away in the background?
Rosehill now a Heavy 8.
Lay More Joyous and Overreach and load up on Second Effort. Also happy to go again on Silent Achiever.
See Oges, its not that hard when you put your mind to it!
G’day Crio, on Sunday, is there anything of interest in Benalla or Sale ?
Heading back to Sydney on the Saturday for the Slipper, Overreach is the fave, but there’s a lot of support for Criterion.
Re Gais other big name pair, More Joyous, and Pierro, i wonder where those two wil be aimed at his year. More Joyous will be 7 by the time our Spring carnival rolls around, and she’s never set the world on fire in Melbourne. Pierro’s runs were solid in melbourne last spring, and as a 4 year old, he might do well in the Cox Plate. Let’s see how it all pans out.
Happy Punting,
Glen!
Wish I had your confidence Budge but at least you have had a go- I think I may have to do what a friend said to me the other day down at the local “give me the money you were going to bet and I”ll give it back to you on Sat night”
The BMW is more a Leyland P76
Agree Flynny
The Tancred is more often a P-76 than a BMW, but nonetheless there is still coin to me made. Study Maluckyday’s three runs this prep. Would have to be a massive chance on that form and should handle the wet. Not sure Foreteller can run a strong 2400m, and he only wins when you have forgotten about him.
Wet track has opened up a few options in Sydney. I’ll be really keen to see what the track condition is actually like for the first few as it will be a major game changer if they look like coming home out wide later in the day, doesn’t bode well for the fav in the slipper.
The P76/BMW has a few good wet trackers but none better than Niwot, Maluckyday and Kellini also handle it OK but 5 1/5 star looks no good so that opens up the punting opportunities.
In the Geo Ryder, Veyron is an absolute swimmer so if it’s at least slow will be a great chance to run second to Pierro who looks over the line to me.
Moonee Valley is a bit of a challenge but I like The Wingman in the second last and Le Bonsir in the last and I may need these to get out for the day.
The Adelaide meeting is a bit of a disaster but the last is a good race and Clinton Affair looks OK to me at 9/1 or 10/1 currently, depending where you look.
Nice to see some interesting comments above, none more so that Oges… Mohammed Ali would have liked to have the level of confidence that the Budge has! But he’s spot on, nothing ventured…there will be some good winners tomorrow, just gotta find em.
Where’s Elvis, wet track, big day…made for him….conbobulations aplenty
The big mail, Jock, is that Elvis will be “in the building” at Money Valley tmrw. We will be ready. The Karrakatta Plate will be critical.
Is the budge attending to critique Elvis’ selections or saving himself for the footy?
Maybe they could do the double! Regardless of the results on the punt, I’m pretty sure Budge will be on a winner at the G
Always more chance of me being on a winner at the G than the Valley but I’ll be focussing on the GG’s tomorrow and watch the game on TV. Hate that we get melbourne after such a shocker and they have a great record against us. Might lay us at the short odds to give us some hope. I expect Pies to blow your boys out of the water Jock.
Crio,
Karrakatta looks interesting over here, maybe the fillies have the edge but not a lot in it – I took the 1, 8, 9 ,14,15 in the quaddie with the 14 (Oratism) worth a look at 20/1.
Moreish will not get beaton by anything from Perth in the Oaks and Boss’s Scarletina is the only thing that may.
Civil Rights is a horse on the up looking for ground in the Melvista and worth a look at 12/1 as well.
Happy Punting in the East will have a go but rain means not with much confidence.
Thanks for that Ripsnorter. Always needy of a Perth punt post-Melbourne…the W.Pike escape is not flawless! Track very firm here in Melbourne.
Phew! Hot Snitzel has got me out of some deep mire. All up into Ms. Funovits in the Karrakatta now.
re: More Joyous and Pierro. Was Nash riding for Gai or for Tom Waterhouse?
Cheers Ripsnorter. I took Moreish/Ms. Funovits running double. Paid well.
How was Ms. Funovits $4.50? Should have been $2.50.
Good tipping boys… hope you filled up.
Ms Funovits looked overs – maybe Sadler’s earlier created a crisis of confidence
More Joyous is still a star. She tried to the line.
Pierro is it and a bit!
You are probably right there regarding Ms. Funovits price, crio. Had the Sadler filly saluted in the Oaks, she would have been backed in a lot harder.
Ms.Funovits defeated Thermal Current at their debut. There was big hype around TC before the Blue Diamond if you remember. Ms.F was entered for the big 2-yr old race at Bendigo, but they saved her for this. Smart move.
Crio / Skip,
Think you guys on the money regarding Sadler – his 2yo would have gone out much shorter if his 3yo had won.
Moreish looks like going to the Deby and may be hard to beat – no dominant colt over here although Rebelson will get them at level weights next time.
Always better to win at the end of the day Skip so you can’t give it back later on ( not that day anyway )