It’s like we are gathering the ingredients but still not begun preparing the banquet – Saturday’s fields feature some notable races and some emerging horses but it is really still just a reconnaissance mission for punters yearning for the Spring Classics.
In Sydney, for example, there’s a stack of Group Races but, I’d suggest, a dearth of worthy contestants.
These 2xGr2 and 3xGr3 should indicate a bumper meeting but the Warwick Stakes meeting has fairly small, “skinny” fields:
SR3- TOY SHOW Quality (G3, 1300m, F&M)
Waller has the keys. No1 evens. His other (4) 3rd pick. Guess what?…Gai’s is 2nd fav! Follonica (5) 20/1 blowout?
SR4- SILVER SHADOW STAKES (G2, 1200m, 3yo fillies)
Small field. Few chances. Gai’s (1) 5/4. Snowden’s (3) 5/2. Soft G2.
SR5- UP & COMING STAKES (G3, 1300m, Quality 3yo)
Drago (4) is super promising. Something will emerge as a Spring contender from this good race.
SR6- WARWICK STAKES (G2, 1400m, WFA)
Rain Affair, from barrier 13, will be even money. Streama is seen as the only danger – not by me.
SR8- SHOW COUNTY Quality (G3, 1200m)
Wide and interesting race. 2,5,9 and probably others!
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I’ll be at the Valley. Rain’s been forecast (typing Wednesday evening) but not significant yet. Here we’ll keep a close eye on horses with ambitious programs, looking to see if they are worth following. As a punter, I’ll leave them alone but look at backing some others that might pick up a race before the competition gets too hot.
MR1- Gregers (2) might be a very nice 3yo.
MR2- stayers’ racers are poor. Have a cuppa.
MR3- all eyes on Commanding Jewel (4) here, with grander plans ahead. Plenty of good challengers for this sprint. Query 11.
MR4- Cauthen (8) will be the watch here. A genuine Guineas prospect, he nearly went over the running rail on Australian debut here. No betting! 1,4 and others are eyeing some nice prizemoney in the coming months. A strong form race for blackbookers.
QUADDY KICKS OFF… and, ironically, the quality dips. Some long odds chances here:-
MR5- I was keen on Petite Diablesse before it’s scratching last week. So I guess I’ll butter up E/W here and hope they run along. Lots of value for a rich multi. 14, 5, even 3, especially if we get the rain.
MR6- Don’t like this race. Big watch on 3. Poor gate, great hoop, looking at weeks ahead. 17 some hope if it gains a run. Another Emergency, 16, also in the exotics for The Impaler.
MR7- 11 top pick. 13 at cricket score odds to fill a place for Trifectas.
MR8- Hosting (15) is fancied. Gelded. Blinkers 1st time. He’s raced in good company and has nommed for the silk department. G.Eurell polish seems timely also. Le Bonsir (4), despite a wide gate, must go in.
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Adelaide also gets some Black Type with the Penny Edition (AR8, Listed, 1400m, WFA). Kneeling (9).
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Plenty of meetings around the country as footy seasons end. Quite taken by the location of Camooweal, near the NT/QLD border, which hosts its Cup Day. The title of a Slim Dusty song, Camooweal gets a lot of through traffic and will certainly have its share of characters boosting the few permanent numbers this week. Much further west, the mining town of Newman hosts its Cup meeting – reckoning there’d be some spirited punting with those fat wallets. It is an oasis – even a turf track – and, of course, BHP fund the $27,500 Cup!
Whether it is Gilgandra or Gatton, Moonee Valley or Morphettville, the thrill of a winner tantalizes the tastebuds ….
That whiff of a winner gets even stronger in coming weeks. Next Saturday Caulfield hosts the season’s first Group One. Atlantic Jewel should return.
The Spring menu is being assembled.
Good luck!
DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE METAL BENDER
A Quality galloper who, though 8 now, always runs well fresh.
Thought Follonica (SR3, No5) might be the Sydney value for The Pumper. Any support?
Chosen To Fly in Race 3 at the Valley. Quoted at a ridiculous $50 in Best Bets but a more realistic $9 in Winning Post.
Under-rated and a ripping looking horse. Great fresh and 1000m form. Hard to beat in a tricky race. Probably scratch if heavy track.
Budge,
A strong first serve but no speed apart from Veyron so the fav goes to an easy early and should win. I’m looking for Toydini getting home well as he could develop into a top liner and goes OK fresh.
Crio, i know Slims tune re Camooweal but it’s a tad too far for a weekend drive. This weekend though, we’ll drive to Donald for its race meeting.
Glen!
Glen, I am glad you can verify Slim Dusty’s tune – like any investigative writer, I’d lifted that reference straightr from Wiki! Donald looks a lovely track – still haven’t bneen there. Lots of restricted races but big fields.
Plenty of roughies for your Melbourne Quaddy this week.
After the wipeout last weekend I have been frequenting the beach in search of tips when the weather (which has been more than wintery here ) allows
David Jolly has a good team assembled for Morphetville and when he told me this was the best team he had going to the races for months I started licking my lips
So I will concentrate on his runners here but also look to a few in Melbourne (thanks Budge and Jock for the early word too)
Glen- would love to be at Donald with you and to follow Yendall who has given up city mounts to be there but time and distance….
G’day Crio. I have a great double CD of some of Slims greatest tunes. one disc is Slim singing, the other disc is a diverse range of performers like Midnight Oil, Tom T Hall, Troy Cassar-Daley covering these tunes. There is a song about going back to Camooweal, but off the top of my head, i can’t recall the actual title.
Glen!
Glen, that would be Ed Kuepper”s brilliant cover of Camooweal from the Not so dusty cd, The screaming jets also feature doing thier take on Cunnamulla Fella. Highly recommended.
Great stuff fellas….. you don’t get that in the Winning Post!
Crio,
You alluded to the 11 being a query in Race 3 at the Valley. No query. Wins. Has form Fresh, 2nd up, Good. Dead, Slow, Heavy and Rick Worthington brought a good one to Melb some years ago. I’ll defer to you blokes to recall it’s name.
Budge. Good call. Metal Bender is an exceptional galloper and should not be underestimated. Likewise the Kiwi Veyron.
Welcome back Elvis. Whitefriars?
Crio,
That’s him, thanks. Good fields in Melb and Sydney tomorrow I reckon. Gives a bloke with a lunch money stake a chance to make a quid.
What about the Penny Edition in Adelaide – there was a grand galloper!
Elvis,
nice to see you return with a bit of confidence.You picked a pretty hard race for your first “over the line” of the new season in the 3rd at the Valley.
I reckon Gossip Girl has a good hope in the 5th at the Valley, coming off Elite Elle’s back.
The best race anywhere was the last in Sydney and I’m trying Alma’s Fury at very big odds.
Crio,
I remember Penny Editon very well and he was very good to me but that race is a shocker, if Budriguez isn’t ready yet, which it probably isn’t I can’t see anything winning. It will be a challenge at Morphettville with a heavy on the inside track…watch leaders.
Big fan of Penny Edition. Love the old veterans who keep fronting up like Redelva, Bomber Bill, Elvis, etc….
Elvis – you’re one number off in R3. Chosen to Fly (10) beats It’s Crunch Time (6). My tipping form is infalible like my spell8ng.
Jock, you’re a young veteran!!
Budge, Crio and Jock,
All round wraps to Penny Edition. For a free signed copy of “The Elvis Guide To Making Money:, tell me who trained him.
Budge,
Chosen To Fly!! Is it a Greys only race. Beat a hurdler at Flemington. Can I have what you’re having.
Elvis,
Everyone knows the answer but no one wants the prize.
Jock,
I have snipped Gossip Girl tonight. Sorry the Moody fav is out. Very keen race. Box Goss, Petite and Draw Fwd.
Clearly a trick question Elvis, everyone knows no such publication exists,
Given he was a Sovereign Edition I suspect G Murphy might have had him early but I reckon Curtain or Ralph finished up with him. Definitely trainer out of Caulfield.
Crio, Budge,
Brian Ralph trained Penny Edition. No winners of the book prize on this occasion, but visit elviswinningformula. com.au for lucky draw chances to win a free, signed guide to punting riches.
Where have you been Elvis ?Its been pretty tame without you.
Budge- your civility to Elvis has been astounding
It’s a long carnival Oges!
Brilliant Budge-back to your best
Rawiller and Boss went silly in th Warwick,nice patient ride by Reith on Veyron, got him the chockies.