G’day to everyone, True Believers, all. A great time to be a Pies’ supporter?
Two things from last week, first. There are some things that bring a smile to your face, even when they are ‘bad’ things. I’m not a huge fan of the ‘push and shove’, sometimes called a ‘melee’ by the MRO, but go to www.afl.com.au/video/912518/sparks-fly-at-quarter-time-after-de-goey-s-gem?videoId=912518&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1682402081001. The thing to note here is the background noise – the Colling…..wood chant over-riding even the commentators; our supporters supporting our players on the field. I love it. And the other thing from last week, I hope everyone had a listen to Darcy in his post award speech. I include the link again in case you didn’t – www.collingwoodfc.com.au/video/1316575/darcy-moore-s-classy-post-match-speech?videoId=1316575&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1682475554001. And we’ll avoid Darcy’s comment at HT to the journo this week.
Enough of last week. Now this week.
Absolutely unbelievable; simply breathtaking. A fantastic result reflecting the endeavour of the team – the fact that they never, ever give up. Is this why we’re Pies’ supporters?
Round 7
Collingwood 8.11.59 defeated Adelaide 7.16.58.
Goals scored by Quarter:
Q1: 0 (us) / 3 (them);
Q2: 3 / 0. Close at HT (They had a 6 Point lead);
Q3: 2 / 3. Giving us a 16 Point deficit at the final change;
Q4: 3 / 1. Our deficit expanded to 22 points early in Q4 giving us a 23 point turnaround in Q4; and
Total: 8 / 7. And we Won.
Match Report – www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/4848.
Coach’s Report – www.afl.com.au/video/917295/full-post-match-r7-magpies?videoId=917295&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1682848424001&references=AFL_MATCH:4848. Worth watching, particularly his attitude regarding umpire decisions.
Numbers
It would be easy to discount all the numbers and just accept that we Won by chance. Let’s have a look – some selected statistics with some comments:
Hit Outs: 27 (us) / 52 (them). Frampton, again, did okay as an ‘amateur’ ruck against O’Brien. While the HO numbers gave a strong advantage to Adelaide in my view the HO difference here is of limited significance; it is the next step that is critical.
Clearances: Total – 46 / 25. The Clearance numbers reverse the advantage Adelaide had from the HO dominance, a fantastic performance by the Midfield.
Centre – 11 / 6 and Stoppage – 35 / 19.
Inside 50: 46 / 52. This is a minor difference re-establishing some Adelaide dominance, but not a lot.
Goals scored: 8 / 7. Their conversion rate of Inside 50s is lower than ours, but not by much.
Scoring shots: 19 / 23. Poor kicking by them.
Disposal Efficiency: Total – 63.4% / 70.8%. A substantial deficiency. Individual players with DE of 80% or over – 2 / 5; Inside 50 – 43.5% / 48.1%. A big difference at a critical point. Basically, they got Inside the 50 more often and used it better – not sure how the result came about. Actually, I am – I don’t have numbers by quarters, but I am pretty sure the numbers in Q4 would have been hugely in our favour – both Inside 50s and DE, reflecting our control of the game for nearly the whole Quarter. Their domination of the Marks inside 50 – 7 / 9 was offset by our Tackles inside 50 greater dominance – 13 / 8.
Contested Possessions: 142 / 143. Evenly matched teams.
Turnovers: 91 / 75. A major advantage.
1%: 59 / 49. This was also a substantial difference – very impressive, reflecting, particularly, defenders’ punches.
Time in Front. I love this. 0.30 (ie. 30 seconds) / 109.55 (ie. Just under two hours).
Frees: 18 / 28. I try to avoid being too critical of umpires, however there were some awful decisions, particularly non-awards which, of course, don’t figure in the numbers – Johnson’s head-high tackle and Murphy’s same. Others are less forgiving than our coach – go to www.sen.com.au/news/2023/05/01/umpires-questioned-for-alarmingly-terrible-calls-in-crows-pies-thriller/. I have a question relating to my understanding of umpiring: If a player, in the process of scoring a goal is offended, like being slam-dunked into the dirt, my understanding is that in addition to the goal that is scored, the umpire can award a free kick in that location rather than returning to the Centre to restart play? (Thinking of Nick Daicos last week). Critically, given the incident at the soccer game on the weekend between a spectator and a referee, we all understand the critical role umpires play; we just want them to be fair and with four umpires on the ground, they shouldn’t miss much.
Best: The AFL website identifies Moore, J.Daicos, Mihocek, N.Daicos, Sidebottom, McCreery and Murphy. Not going to argue. Nearly everyone had their moment to contribute.
Game. A fabulous game of footy that fully reflected the never give up attitude of the team (same words I used last week).
Injuries. Krueger?
Deductions / Lessons? General application was fantastic. Early on it appeared we weren’t talking and our cooperation between players was missing. Pendles’ presence has a wonderful effect of settling things when the game is not going our way. Full credit to Darcy showing great leadership, getting around the groups at different times. The conditions were pretty awful, and this reflected both sides’ performance, including some perennials – holding our tackles, holding our marks and crumbing around packs. It had all cleaned up by the start of Q4. Really good to see Forwards looking for a better placed goal-kicker rather than blazing away. Adelaide are a very good side and I fully expect to see them in the Finals. All, well done.
Round 8
Back home. Collingwood plays Sydney at the MCG on Sunday, 7 May; bounce at 3.20pm.
We are overdue a bit of ‘pay-back’ following our 1-Point Loss to Sydney on their itty-bitty little home ground in Sydney. I’m a bit surprised the AFL hasn’t put the hard word on Sydney to find a bigger ground.
This game is between 1st (us) and 11th (them) on the Ladder.
Them:
Sydney started the season well with Wins against the GC and Hawthorn but then Lost to Melbourne and Port before a Win over Richmond followed by two Losses most recently. Of all these results the Wins over the GC, Hawthorn and Richmond were by substantial margins and were as expected between the previous year’s Grand Finalist playing teams towards the bottom of the Ladder. The Loss to Geelong, a revisit of the Grand Final, produced a similar, unsurprising result (including a 7 goal to 0 Q3). Of the games, however, two stand out as worthy of consideration – their Losses to Port in Round 4 by 2 Points and their Loss last week to GWS by a solitary Point. In both games Sydney held a substantial 20 plus Point lead early in Q4. Against Port their statistics included +22 Inside 50s, -5 Clearances and -9 Contested Possessions. Interestingly, their Tackles Inside 50 difference was 7 / 24. Against GWS, assessed across the game, they were +23 Contested Possessions, +15 Inside 50, +9 Clearances and +5 Marks inside 50. Looking for a common trend, in both matches Sydney’s DE Inside 50 was significantly lower than their opponents. And they Lost each game. With the exception of the DE Inside 50 number, it is hard to see what they could have done better, statistically, especially on their ‘little’ home ground on their last outing. I see the problems with the SCG size as allowing entry to the 50 from the centre of the ground. The result of our game will give Sydney three Losses in a row.
Sydney is well outside the Eight in 11th place on the Ladder. After confronting us in Round 8 at the MCG, they have the Dockers at the SCG (expect a Win for them), North at Marvel (expect a Loss) and Carlton at the SCG (expect a serious Loss even though it’s at the SCG) before their Bye. It is unlikely they’ll be in a position to challenge the Ladder leaders.
Game Plan? I watched some of their GWS game (up to HT). Sydney managed to recover from GWS’s lead at HT and to establish a substantial lead into Q4, which they progressively Lost. Major players for Sydney include their Midfield and the string of key position players along the ‘spine’ – FF / CHF / C / CHB / FB. Of these a critical position is Franklin at FF. While a great mark and kick the team’s very clear focus is to use him as their pathway to goal. Interestingly, various commentators consider Sydney plays a better game when Franklin is not there. Certainly, his presence should provide the opportunity for appropriate defensive measures – eg. double teaming. It is also fairly evident that Sydney’s application dropped off late in each of these games. Certainly the distance required to be travelled on the MCG is significantly higher than on the SCG. So, fitness? application?
Significance / Players to Watch?
Warner, Chad (there are two Warner’s) – Rover; Gulden – HF / Wing; Parker – Centre / RR; Lloyd – CHB; Ladhams – Ruck; and Florent – HB (but remember he turned up kicking for goal after the siren in Round 4). Also watch for McCartin (unlikely to be playing – both McCartin brothers went off with concussion last game), Rampe – FB (has been missing since Round 4, injured; not sure of status).
Roles?
Tag Warner and pay close attention to other key individuals – Gulden and Parker;
Watch for attempts to tag our players / implement counter-tagging plan;
Ruck duel – Ladhams versus Frampton. I have faith; and
Close defence on Buddy.
Us:
Apart from the injuries, I’m not sure much needs to change:
Team? Minimal change. Ruck – based on Frampton again. Pendles back. Who to drop / rest / manage?
Application? No change. Application for four full Quarters. Hold the tackles. Establish and maintain control of the game (possessions).
Game Plan? No change to the current plan. Use varied entry to the 50 and be willing to move the ball to a better-placed goal scorer than setting packs. Crumb around packs.
My Picks:
Collingwood to Win by 19 Points. BOG – J. Daicos with 29 Disposals, 7 Clearances, 12 Inside 50s, 4 Tackles and 1 Goal. Hill, Jack & Mihocek each get two goals; Mihocek and Billy total 4 GA each.
Ground Reports.
Loved the Reports from attendees. Let’s see some reporting, please, from those who couldn’t attend but watched the game on TV – all views are welcome. Do we have any Melbournians (or others) going? Could you report please?
TV:
Kayo or FOXTEL – Best for every game. Free to Air TV on 7mate.
Future:
Round 9 – Sunday, 14 May at the MCG – Collingwood versus GWS; bounce at 4.40pm. No FTA TV coverage;
Round 10 – Sunday, 21 May at the MCG – Carlton versus Collingwood; bounce at 3.20pm. FTA TV coverage; and
The Ladder. Keep an eye on the Ladder as we approach the midpoint of the Season (yes, still a couple of weeks off) leading to some big moves on the Ladder.
Other:
VFL – After a great come from behind Win over Essendon at Victoria Park and a Bye, their next game is Round 7 on Sunday, 7 May against Williamstown at DSV Stadium; bounce at 12.00pm (I’m sure Melbournians know where that is; I don’t). Any locals who might attend? I’d welcome a view on how Steene and Begg (if cleared to play) are performing?
Particularly for the Canberra residents, remember the GWS / WB game at Manuka this coming Saturday; bounce at 7.30pm.
And is the Tasmanian team a new team or a relocation? Can anyone tell me? Want some suggestions as to which team should move out of Melbourne?
Remember you can see our past Reports (for a few years) on Footy Almanac atwww.footyalmanac.com.au/?s=Hooke. The group emails started a few years before the FA records. Does anyone’s records show when we started?
Anything that you would like to inform our members of, just Reply to all or send it to me.
Believe always. Go Pies
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