Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life: Round 24 Review / Finals Week 1 Preview

 

G’day True Believers.

 

A fine way to finish the Season, particularly in the broader context of the last few weeks. Well done to all. And, of course, our Season hasn’t finished. Now, the Finals begin. As I’ve stated before Finals’ footy is different to H&A footy.

 

Enough said. A new start is about to come. What’s your opinion?

 

Go Pies.

 

Round 24

 

Collingwood 16.5.101 defeated (‘walloped’, ‘thrashed’, whatever; pick your preferred word) Essendon 3.13.31.

 

Goals scored:

 

Q1: 8 (us) / 0 (them) – a record Q1 score by us in recent years giving us a 47 Point lead and the game could have been seen as over;

Q2: 4 / 2 resulting in a HT lead OF 58 Points;

Q3: 2 / 0 leading to a Final Change lead of 65 Points but noting Essendon scored 6 Behinds in Q3 (see below re Scoring Shots); and

Q4: 2 / 1 resulting in Final margin of 70 Points; and

Total: 16 / 3. We Won, having Won every Quarter.

 

Match Report: www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/4987#match-report

 

Coach’s Reportwww.afl.com.au/video/1016735/full-post-match-r24-magpies?videoId=1016735&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1692969859001&references=AFL_MATCH:4987. Clearly, a very happy bunny, compared with the previous week.

 

Report from the rooms after the game: “working hard but having fun” – Markov –www.collingwoodfc.com.au/video/1415249/he-makes-my-job-easy-markov?videoId=1415249&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1692967680001 and his view of Ginnivan.

 

Numbers:

 

Measure Statistics Remarks
Disposals 396 / 390 As I’ve said previously, I usually don’t usually rate this number. What it can show, even with similar numbers, is the difference in the style of play – we were hugely more direct using the corridor, noting there were a few periods of close kicks around the boundaries.
Hit Outs 26 / 36 I’d like to see these numbers through the game. I thought Cox improved late in the game.
Clearances 32 / 27 This statistic is a surprise. It seems to indicate that our Midfield advantage in spite of the fact that we suffered a HO deficit. That does, however match my observation, from the first 60 seconds onwards.
    from Centre 9 / 7
    from Stoppages 23 / 20
Inside 50s 56 / 39 Critical, converting the Clearance advantage into Inside 50 dominance. With DE inside 50, below, the match-winner – the margin is 17 out of (say, for easier mathematics) 50 resulting in an advantage to us of 34%.
Goals scored 16 / 3 Follows on from Inside 50s and DE Inside 50, perhaps without explaining the extraordinary margin.
Scoring Shots 21 / 16 We did move the ball within the 50 more frequently than previously; always need to do more to set the scoring shot from the best position. The ratio of Scoring Shots is very different to the Goals scored – maybe the result of our pressure on them but they also missed a lot of ‘sitters’. If their scoring shots had been more successful, the game could have been much closer.
Disposal Efficiency 76.8% / 74.9% Not a big deal. Next is important.
DE Inside 50 42.9% / 38.5% This is a significant difference – 4% difference over 40’ish% is a 10% overall margin. The result? We got the ball into the 50 significantly more frequently than them, and we used it more effectively. The combination of the two statistics leads to the match-winning score result.
Marks 106 / 121 Relates to “keep’ens off” attitude of domination through small kicks (UCP) and marks at various times trying to slow the game down.
Marks Inside 50 14 / 14 No difference.
Tackles Inside 50 17 / 6 Significant in support of DE inside 50s to our advantage.
Players with DE > 80 % 8 / 8
Tackles 68 / 59 Important. Combined, this would indicate the pressure inflicted by the Pies was markedly higher than Essendon’s. The impression I got was that our pressure dominated and we decided how the game would be played.
Contested Possessions 124 / 110
1 %’ers 49 / 37
Uncontested Possessions 270 / 279   No significant difference.
Free Kicks 17 / 14 Whatever.

 

Best: The AFL website identifies our Best as De Goey, Ginnivan, J.Daicos, Mitchell, Mihocek and Crisp. I would be tempted to add Pendles (21 Disposals @ 71.4% DE, 6 Tackles, 4 Clearances, 1 Tackle inside 50, 3 Score Involvement, 1 Intercept Possession and 219 metres Gained) and Quaynor (18 D @ 88.9% DE, 5 T, 9 IP, 1 Inside 50, 1 SI and 308 mG). It is also noteworthy that Macrae’s performance in less than half the game was pretty good – 7 D @ 85.7%, 8 T, 1 Cl, 3 IP, 3 TI50, 1 SA and 13 mG. Everyone had their moment.

 

Game / Deductions / Lessons.

A real pleasure to watch – the Pies in full flight linking between close and far colleagues, ultimately resulting in positive scores. Wonderful pressure by all consistently throughout the game. There were many examples especially in Q1 demonstrating a shift away from selfish shots on goal. Well done to all.

 

As McRae reinforces each week, the team is in a constant process of improvement. As such, without casting any doubt on the Win, there are a few things that we could still improve on (particularly against fellow-Finalists rather than a team fronting up following a 126 Point Loss the previous week). A couple of specific comments in addition to those included in the Table, above:

 

  • Work for four Quarters. When you look at the game, we hugely dominated to halfway through Q2; the rest of the game was broadly equal. We slightly improved our margin, but only slightly. Facing the Finals contenders, we will need to play the whole game. Look at the difference between the teams’ combination of Contested Possessions, Tackles and 1 %’ers;
  • Our defence, the foundation of our team strength in the past was significantly improved. A priority needs to be given to this as our foundation strength;
  • We need to continue to  work on passing the ball within the 50 to get the ball to better-placed players. This was much improved but we should consider a ‘hard shot’ at goal as a waste getting it into the 50. We should focus on Goal Assist (GA) statistics in preference to Goals scored;
  • Combined with that, we should kick more to leading forwards rather than high pack-marks;
  • A continuing issue – our kick-in’s continue to be too slow and subject to interception. We badly need to fix this. There needs to be a very clear plan on how to execute this;
  • Midfield control is essential to add to our drive from the Backline, not just out of the Centre. Our Midfield dominated the Clearances while the Inside 50 dominance reflected the ball movement from the Backline as well as the Midfield; and
  • Suggested manning changes to reflect our next opponent are below.

 

Your views?

 

Injuries. Elliott? Not serious.

 

Your comments?

 

Finals Week 1

 

How do the Finals work? Go to www.afl.com.au/news/1016271/who-plays-who-in-week-one-of-toyota-afl-finals-series-fixture-venues-times-revealed. See Flow Diagram.

 

1st Qualifying Final: Thursday, 7 September – Collingwood versus Melbourne at the MCG; bounce at 7.20pm.

 

The Game: 1st (us; 18 Wins / 5 Losses with 127.0%) versus 4th (them; 16 W / 7 L with 125.2%). Current betting: $1.84 / $2.00 – we are favourites, but not by much.

 

Winner / Loser? As per the flow diagram, above, the QF1 Winner progresses straight to the Preliminary Finals in Week 3, with Week 2 off. The QF1 Loser plays Carlton or Sydney in Week 2 to decide a Preliminary Final berth.

 

Them

 

Melbourne has a proud football history with their most recent Premiership in 2021. But before that was a bit of a gap between their dominance in 1955, 1956, 1957, 1959, 1960 and 1964 and 2021. This Season they’ve pretty much progressed under the radar with very strong “expert” opinion that they would make the Finals (as distinct to “the experts” view on how far Collingwood would fall). Of their seven Losses only two were at the MCG – R11 against Freo and R22 against Carlton; the others – the Gabba, Kardinia Park, Adelaide Oval (twice) and Alice Springs. With a few exceptions, Melbourne have not dominated the scoring in their Wins but have demonstrated a determination to Win – in R18 they scored four goals in the last seven minutes to beat Brisbane by 1 Point. Since their R14 Bye, they Lost to Geelong (R15) at Kardinia Park and GWS (R16) in Alice Springs and, the one we remember most recently, their R22 Loss to Carlton by 4 Points. Mostly they’ve wandered along in 4th place on the Ladder.

 

The team is heavily reliant upon a relatively small number of key players – see below. Most critical among these are Petracca, Viney and Brayshaw; each of whom has shown the ability to lift the whole team. Petracca’s performance in the Win over Sydney (R24) was simply superb. The other key individual is Oliver, unreported for much of the season because he was out injured for 10 weeks. Based on his performances last year, he is worth watching. These are predominantly placed along the spine. Melbourne are also in a critical position whereby a very recent injury to Melksham will see him miss the Finals, questions also exist relating to Fritsch and Ben Brown. The issue of to play or not play Grundy has also dominated “the experts” media contributions. We know Grundy well – he was selected All Australian ruck when with us; not sure what has happened since. A final alert – Melbourne shifted Petty, more usually a defender forward on one occasion, from where he kicked 5 goals. As such, Melbourne has shown an admirable degree of flexibility within the coach’s box.

 

All Australian Squad – Petracca and Viney (new). Note Gawn is not included. Petracca and Viney scoring well in the Coaches’ assessment.

 

Players to Watch?

 

  • Petracca – Rover;
  • Fritsch – CHF (if playing);
  • Viney – Centre;
  • Brayshaw – Wing;
  • Oliver – RR;
  • Gawn – Ruck;
  • van Rooyen – CHF;
  • Langdon – Wing / FF.

 

Roles?

 

  • Petracca needs to be neutralised / tagged – Adams?
  • Fritsch (if playing) requires close attention – Murphy?
  • Oliver may require tagging subject to his influence – 2nd game back after a 10 week break – not sure who?
  • Midfield battle, starting with the ruck duel, will define the Clearances, Inside 50s and, ultimately, the scores.

 

Us:

 

All Australian Squad – Moore, N.Daicos, J.Daicos, De Goey and Quaynor (all but Moore new).

A few suggested changes for us:

 

  • Team? Suggest a few changes:

 

  • Out (Note I think Elliott will be available):
    • Frampton;
    • Lipinski;
    • Markov (move to Sub); and
    • Hoskin-Elliott;
  • In:

 

o    Moore;

o    Murphy;

o    McCreery; and

o    Ryan (if available (Concussion) and required); and

o    Macrae (if required); and

  • Sub: Markov

 

Your choices / ideas?

  • Importance: This game is critical to take us to a home-based Preliminary Final, followed a week later by the Grannie. We need to avoid playing Brisbane at the Gabba and we should seek to avoid playing Carlton wherever. Of the Eight, GWS and Carlton could be the biggest challenge along with Brisbane at home. Your thoughts?
  • History. In our last three meetings we Lost the most recent, the KB game (R13 2023), by 4 Points but Won the other two – R21 2022 and QB (R13 2022) by 7 and 26 Points, respectively. It is worthwhile, to give some context to our game, that for our most recent meeting, that we Lost by 4 Points, we were missing Ginnivan, De Goey, Elliott, Howe, Sidebottom, McStay and McInnes.  Melbourne were missing Oliver.
  • Structure? Howe stays in the Backline in the intercept role. Cox in ruck relieved, as necessary, by Cameron or McStay. Adams to alternate with De Goey in Midfield. Adams maybe tagging Petracca. Ginnivan and Hill, small Forwards, annoy the Melbourne backs – we have demonstrated we can play both in the same team?
  • Application? Largely no change – Application for four full Quarters. Hold the tackles. Establish and maintain control of the game (Contested Possessions).
  • Game Plan? No change to the current plan – Drive out of the Backline as well as the Midfield. Use varied entry to the 50 and be willing to move the ball to a better-placed goal scorer than delivering to packs. Crumb around packs. Importantly, I’d like to see the kick-in progress more smoothly out of the Backline – I think speed, planning and preparedness have a lot to do in achieving this.

 

 

My Picks:

 

Win by 19 Points. BOG – De Goey – 30 Disposals, 9 Clearances, 7 Tackles and 471 mG. Elliott, Hill and Ginnivan all get 3.

 

Ground Reports. Loved the Reports from attendees. Let’s see some reporting, please, from those who couldn’t attend but watched the game on TV – all views are welcome. Do we have anyone going? Could you report please? And always Reply to All please?

 

Weather.  Very low chance of light rain on the day but more substantial rain non the Tuesday and Wednesday leading to our Thursday night game. Get the boots with stops out.

 

TV:      Kayo or FOXTEL – Best for every game. I prefer their commentators.

 

Free to Air TV coverage on 7mate from 7.00pm (not disclosed yet, but you would hope).

 

Next:

 

  • Then?

  • Week off: 1 – 3 September;
  • Finals: Week 1 : 7 – 10 September – Qualifying Finals & Elimination Finals – Collingwood versus Melbourne;
  • Finals: Week 2: 15 – 16 September – Semi-Finals. Week off;
  • Finals: Week 3: 22 – 23 September – Preliminary Finals – Collingwood versus ?; and
  • Finals: Grand Final – 30 September – Collingwood versus ?.
  • The Ladder. Keep an eye on the Ladder as we approach the Finals. Have a look at recent results and moves. As above, who could have expected a Season to finish like this one? Your thoughts?

 

Other:

  • VFL – The VFL side followed up their final H&A Win over Southport with a Wildcard Win over Richmond by 75 Points leading to a Final’s place at 8th. Notably Macrae and Begg both performed well. Their FW1 Game is on Saturday, 2 September with Williamstown at DSV Stadium; bounce at 3.00pm. Anyone going?
  • Anything that you would like to inform our members of, just to all or send it to me.

 

Believe always. Go Pies.

 

Cam

 

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