Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life: Round 20 Review / Round 21 Preview

 

G’day all.

Well, better than the previous few weeks but still some scope to improve. It is fun with the faint hope of Finals footy sitting just in reach / out of reach. Just imagine the impact of Pies’ Wins in our next three games. It would also mean we would roll into the Finals with massive confidence. I love it.

Sorry for the delay. Enjoy.

As always,

Go Pies.

 

Round 19

Collingwood 14.9.93 defeated Richmond 9.13.67.

Scoring shots 23 (us) / 22 (them).

Possession percentage: 43% (us) / 42% (them).

 

Match Report. www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/6059#match-report.

 

Coach’s interview. www.afl.com.au/video/1183619/full-post-match-r20-magpies?videoId=1183619&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1722149091001.

His description – “a clinical Win” and his comments regarding the predictability of team members to each other and the ‘ripple effect’ of decisions are worth listening to. Really importantly, he emphasised the message from the team to the fans: “we want to show up”. We all understand what that means.

 

Goals:

• Q1      6 (us) / 2 (them) – After a mediocre start we pounced, leading to a 24-Point lead at the first break;
• Q2      3 / 3 – Continued dominance but allowed them to get a couple of late goals. Our             lead – a 25-Point lead at Half Time;
• Q3      4 / 1 – After an early positive start, the game settled. Our lead at the final change             was, now, 41-Points; and
• Q4      1 / 3 – Okay, a bit of a wind-down – Q4 scores were 7 (us) / 22 (them). Final result – a lead of 26-Points; and
• Total:   14 / 9; a Win by 26-Points.

 

Numbers (some statistics taken, with comments). The numbers should be treated with some caution because they are a record across the whole game. In this diin Q1 and Q3; they certainly did Q2 and Q4. However, with some comments, they are interesting:

Statistic	Numbers Us / Them	Comments
Disposals	348 / 362	Normally not included, but here the difference was minimal unlike many of our recent Losing games. We have been swamped by our opponents in the last few weeks – they have controlled the games. Of note, something we pride ourselves on, the handball component – 149 / 151 was virtually identical.
Hit Outs (HO)	46 / 18	I simply don’t believe these numbers. Isn’t Cameron doing well, generally, but particularly around the ground? I still don’t think he isn’t carrying an injury. The relevance of the HO number is highly suspect because it is not a measure of the effectiveness of the rucking – that would be ‘HO to advantage’ or, more accurately, Clearances.
Clearances	39 / 29	Includes: 12 / 11 Centre clearances and 27 / 18 stoppage clearances. This is potentially, hugely significant, but note the difference between the HO numbers and the Clearance numbers. Our Midfield dominated, but not to the degree that the HO numbers would indicate. ‘Clearance to Inside 50 to Goal’ is the ideal progression.
Inside 50s	51 / 52	This is critical because of the flow-through of the Clearance dominance – it should have been much higher. Given the numbers are a comparison of the number of times the ball is in a position from where a score can result, it usually flows from these Clearance numbers. The challenge? How effectively did each side then use it? See below.
Disposal Efficiency (DE)	73.6% /74.3%	Not too different. Not particularly useful, anyway, across the whole game.
DE inside 50	51.0% / 55.8%	This is the critical difference relating to Clearances and Inside 50s, identified above. This is where you see how effectively the teams use their entry into the 50 – and we somehow recorded a deficiency. Their very minor advantage of Inside 50 numbers combined with this should have led to better and more frequent scoring. They should have Won.
Goals scored	14 / 9	The fundamental result.
Players with DE of 80%	8 / 8	No difference.
Contested Possessions (CP)	128 / 116	The measure of how hard each team is working – CP, Tackles and Turnovers combined.
Turnovers	70 / 63	Really important.
Marks (M)	83 / 110	Across game. They used shorter passes to unmanned teammates to move the ball, keeping possession.
M inside 50	20 / 11	Impacts on DE inside 50 numbers. Reverse of the above.
Tackles (T)	55 / 34	Across game. Very strong Pies’ dominance.
T inside 50	6 / 2	Also impacts on DE inside 50 numbers.
1 %’ers	45 / 31	Really important. This also something we pride ourselves on.
Free kicks	13 / 9	This number comparison surprised me. I thought the umps did a generally poor job, principally because of the lack of consistency. Interesting to see Razor Ray – one of our faves (not) – presiding. I thought he’d already retired. Obviously not.

 

The Game

 By midway through Q1 I was a bit disbelieving of the play. But three quick goals seemed to settle the nerves. We didn’t play well; Richmond were even worse. This seemed to be the way the game progressed – we’d throw together two or three goals in quick succession; they’d similarly reciprocate but for extended periods there was no score.

We scored from different sources – 47-Points from turnover; 46 from stoppages (including 20 from Centre bounces). This spread also differs from recent games and establishes a much more difficult counter for opponents. And we worked harder –  see Contested Possessions, Tackles and Turnovers above.

Statistically, Richmond had greater numbers of Inside 50s and used it more effectively there. They should have Won, or at least been significantly closer. For us, in Q4 we steadied and didn’t do much but were sitting on a reasonable lead.

Our ball handling was okay and our decision-making regarding where and when to pass was better, particularly compared with last week. There are still passes that went directly to an opponent. And people were spinning out of tackles. An observation from last week, but still relevant – when our players received the ball particularly close-in, there was almost a total disregard to anyone following, about to tackle. In this game Richmond were as bad as we were – hence the similarity in numbers with DE of 80% or higher.

This game wasn’t a notable Win. But it was a Win and it sets a baseline from which we can launch into the Finals and beyond.

The result: The Pies are now sitting 12^th on the Ladder outside the Eight by a Win and percentage, though getting in is still a distinct possibility. We really need two Wins and percentage. I note that betting on winning the Premiership by us is currently $81, last week $101. Might be worth a flutter. See below for our next games.

Best: The AFL website identifies the following as Best – NickD, JoshD, Bytel and Pendles. Don’t disagree with their inclusions but I might have added Moore, one of his best games for a while.

Injuries: I am not confident Cameron is not carrying an injury? And now we know De Goey is out; not sure for how long.

Crowd – 58,342.  Pretty poor crowd actually given the two Clubs.

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Round 21

Saturday, 3^rd August – Collingwood versus Carlton at the MCG; bounce at  7.30pm.

Carlton have had a great start to the season with sequential Wins, but more recently have had a  dynamic presence on the Ladder. Currently 4^th based on 48 points from 12 Wins and 7 Losses, their percentage is 112.9%. They are in the Top 4 by percentage alone. This compares with our 12^th place on the Ladder based on 40 points from 9 Wins, 8 Losses and 2 Draws and a 100.1% percentage. We are 4 points plus percentage outside the top 8. So 4^th versus 12^th seems far more significant than if you maybe shifted the Draws into Wins. Of course the reverse can also apply.

Two major events happen on Saturday:

1. Pendles plays his 400^th game for the Club; and
2. We play the ‘olde enemy’, Carlton. I don’t recall the exact Win / Loss history status. More recently we have had the distinct pleasure of wrecking their day – R23, 2022 denying their Finals spot when we Won by 1-Point and R8 this year when we Won 6-Points.

And if you want to check the history, go to my emails for Rounds 7 and 8 and 8 and 9 sent out on 28 April and 6 May respectively. Notably my prediction in the first of these was a Pies’ Win, of course, by 7-Points. The actual result; a Pies’ Win by 6-Points.

Current betting is $2.60 / $1.50. Just to clarify, Carlton are favourites but, interestingly, not by much.

 

Them

Most recently Carlton have produced a series of Losses – R17 – Loss to GWS by 12-Points, R18 – Loss to WB by 14 and R20 – Loss to Port by 14 at Marvel Stadium. The notable exception in this run was a Win over North by 19. So, Carlton come into our game with 3 Losses from their last four games.

Their coach had a few things to say after their Port Loss. He suggested a “lack of run” without sustained pressure was the cause of a reduced 2H performance. He identified 90 Tackles in 1H but only 50 in 2H as symptom of this. I’m not sure that this would be grounds for a follow-on approach to their game; probably the reverse – highly motivated.

The list of Players to Watch, below, indicates their strength across the paddock with a reliance on their Midfield, their key Forwards and other individuals, particularly in Defence. One tactic they’ve employed is using Cincotta, more frequently CHF, in a tagging role. NickD, watch. Experts (not me) have also identified that Carlton’s Forward line works best when their two ‘Twin Towers’ (Curnow and McKay) are playing together. An argument about their recent Port Loss was based on McKay’s absence ill. As always, win the Midfield battle, win the war.

Injuries. They have a long Injury List including a number of key players out – De Koning, Acres.

Players to watch:

• Curnow – FF / FP;
• McKay – CHF / FP;
• Walsh – RR;
• Cripps – Centre;
• Weitering – FB / BP;
• Acres – Wing. Noted as a “fire starter” for the team; and
• Cincotta – CHF / tagging role.

Also keep an eye on Fantasia – FP / HF and Saad – BP / HB; each of whom can have a significant effect for periods.

 

Us

Not too much needs to change from last week except some changes to replace De Goey and to accept previous injuries to return; maybe a rest or two:

• Team? Replace De Goey and, potentially, Cameron. I also thought that both Quaynor and Markov might benefit from a rest.  Who to replace? Your thoughts?
• Application? Possession of the ball lets you win the match – lose possession and you are fighting backwards. No change.
• Game Plan? No change to the current plan. Work on kick-in plan. Work on a Plan that runs for four Quarters. Work on coordination of the Forward line and the Backline. Avoid disrupting the Backline to ease the burden on the Forwards – leave Frampton back and leave Howe there. Continue to better arrange and coordinate delivery into and across the 50 – plans. Speed up the movement out of the Backline – establish plans to execute this.
• Practice tackling.
• Be happy? Much improved.

Necessary Actions?

• Close attention to their Midfield, particularly countering any tagging by them. Win the Midfield battle – use the measures of Clearances and Inside 50s to assess;
• Close attention to their Forwards – Curnow and McKay; and
• Enjoy the Win.

 

TV.     Free to air coverage on TV. Also on Kayo, whose commentators I prefer.

Weather. Rain is forecast the day before the game. It will be slippery. Get the boots with ‘stops’ out. No slip-sliding.

My prediction:          Collingwood to Win by 13 Points.

                                    BOG – Pendles with 27 Disposals @ 95.0% DE, 10 Cl and 2 GA.

                                    Richards scores 4 goals; Elliot and Hill get two each.

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The Future

• Round 22 – Friday, 9th August – Sydney versus Collingwood at the SCG; bounce at 7.40pm. FTA TV coverage on Channel 7; and
• Round 23 –  Saturday, 17th August – Collingwood versus Brisbane Lions at the MCG; bounce at 4.35pm. No Free to air TV coverage.

VFL. Still a couple to go, still. Last weekend was a welcome Bye. Next game, Round 20 on 9 August is versus Sydney in Sydney; bounce at 2.05pm. Anyone attending? Briefs please? Go Boys.

VFLW. No more, ladies.

Games. Remember for those who can’t get to the VFL / VFLW games, you can watch them live at:

www.afl.com.au/stream-your-team?utm_source=aflcomau&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=state_league_streaming.

 

Ground Reports? Now I’m not sure who went to the last game. Is anyone going to the next? I’d like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar?  More please.

 

Always believe. Never give up. Go Pies.

Cam

 

 

Read more of Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life HERE.

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