Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life: Round 2 Review and Round 3 Preview

 

Greetings to all, True Believers.

 

I want to do something personal here. I want to dedicate today’s email to my good friend, Linda. Linda died in the middle of last year of cancer. She was an avid Brisbane fan, Club Member and game attendee at games. I think she even sponsored one of the Brisbane players; don’t remember who. I regret that she was unable to see last year’s AFL culminate in Brisbane and see Brisbane do so well. I miss her footy knowledge and commitment, her good humour and her friendship. Linda, rest in peace.

 

A minor admin point. Please use the address list on this email rather than an old old one. There are some changes.

 

Round 2

 

That was fun. Apart from a couple of occasions when some pessimism started to sneak through, when Carlton produced, our boys did it well.

 

Collingwood 16.10.106 defeated Carlton 13.78.85. And we now lead the historic competition between the Clubs –

 

• Match Report – https://www.afl.com.au/news/569106/de-goey-fires-pies-to-first-win-of-the-season; and
  
  
• Buck’s comments – “A more Collingwood performance”. Go to https://www.afl.com.au/video/569723/buckley-that-was-a-more-collingwood-performance-?videoId=569723&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1616673884001.Worth a read, p-articularly comparing Rounds 1 and 2.

 

Buckley: ‘That was a more Collingwood performance’ www.afl.com.au

 

Extraordinary things we saw (just a couple):

 

• Gibbon’s and Adams’ grubber goals. I loved the commentator’s comment “early contender”, inferring Gibbon’s was in line for Goal of the Year (even if it hadn’t, actually, been out) and in response to Adams’ “No way”. Daicos’ was pretty good too – note my comments about crumbing in front of and behind packs.

 

• Moore’s mark against two opponents; and

 

• Adam’s tackle, by the shorts.

 

Some statistics and comments:

 

• Hit Outs – 55 (us) / 21 (them). I am fast coming to the conclusion that this is a largely useless measure of which ruck touches the ball first, and has absolutely no relevance to anything useful, like Clearances or Inside50s. Hit Outs to advantage, now that is different, and implies the ball; went to the “good guys”. Unfortunately, I don’t have those numbers;

 

• Clearances – 35 / 40. Strange reversal, given our HO dominance, above;

 

• Inside 50s – 48 / 60. This is the important statistic, qualified by the next two. It is a curious number because, usually, dominance here dominates scoring;

 

• Disposal Efficiency – 74.4% / 75.1%. Okay, no real difference here through the whole game, but there’s more. See next two;

 

• Individual Disposal Efficiency – 9 / 13 team members with a DE equal to or over 80%. These are high numbers for both sides; not sure why theirs is extraordinary. For us, Elliott and Mihocek (100%), Moore (90.9% and Brown, Daicos and Roughead (87.5%) all led the way;

 

• Disposal Efficiency Inside 50 – 52.1% / 36.7%. This important and significant difference here was key to the Pies’ success. We got it there and then used it far more effectively;

 

• Contested possessions – 145 / 126. With Tackles, a measure of pressure (commitment and application). I thought it was pretty good across all four Quarters. Even when Carlton got a bit of a run-on, we didn’t slacken off; and

 

• Tackles – 65 / 41. Remember Bucks identified this as a specific failing after Round 1.

 

• Scoring Shots – 26 / 20; and

 

• Winning margin – 21 Points. The margin was 30 Points at the end of Q1 but was reduced to 7 Points at one stage. The Pies’ defensive effort and counterattack won them the game.

 

 

Best: Adams, Moore, Pendles, De Goey, Crisp and Noble. Don’t disagree. The surprise? How well Crisp is performing in the Midfield.

 

Lessons:

 

• Back 6 – well done. A great performance.

 

• Forwards, well done – great concurrent leads and leading to marks – love the low, fast delivery. I am not against high ‘up and under’s to Cox; they are one avenue only, and shouldn’t be the only avenue towards goal. Elliott is a fantastic mark; hope he’s back soon;

 

• Crumbing packs, both behind and in front? This was shown by both sides as a way to goal. We need to shut theirs down;

 

• Tackling and one-on-one. Too many opponents ran out of tackles and in one-on-one competitions our player was occasionally on the ground, leaving his opponent free to continue. Stay on your feet or get up quickly;

 

• Midfield collaboration? Hit Out numbers are useless, unless turned into Clearances? And Cox is not an alternative ruck. We should look seriously at including Cameron and / or Lynch (both did well in the VFL practice match), even at Cox’ expense; and

 

• Emphasise Goal Assist in preference to Goal numbers? Better, but still not great – kicking at goal from an ‘impossible’ position should be redirected to someone in a better position.

 

• Basics – much better; and

 

• Decisions – We gifted a number of goals through pretty suspect decisions, often passing across goal.

Plus?

 

Experts – 61% picks against us.Go to http://whotippedwhat.com/round/afl-2021-round-2/ to check who.

 

AFL 2021 Round 2 – Who Tipped What   Round 2: AFL 1 2 3 4 5 6 Home Away Print Less Stats The Verdict View Round Summary 61% 86% 97% 97% 72% 92% 97% 86% 69% All… Blogger Commentator Computer Predictions Ex-Coach Ex-Player Journalist Podcast Radio Sports Betting Analyst Television Round Season Upsets Last 5 More Stats # Who From Tips W L […]   whotippedwhat.com

 

All in all, a solid Win. Well done.

 

Round 3

 

Brisbane Lions versus Collingwood

 

Thursday, 1 April 2021 at the Gabba; bounce at 7.40pm (AEDT). Yep, April Fools’ Day.

 

Recent History:

 

• 4 Sep 2020 – Brisbane 6.6.42 defeated Collingwood 5.4.34. A very low-scoring match in which the damage was done in Q2: Brisbane kicked five of their game total of six against one goal to us. Interestingly we had greater Inside 50s (41 / 33), greater Hit Outs (31 / 21) and very similar Clearances and Disposal Efficiency throughout the game however our Disposal Efficiency Inside 50 was awful (22.0% / 45.5%0 – a telling shortcoming. And while I try to avoid publicising such events, the blue started by Maynard is worth a look-see; early on he was busy discussing things with three opponents – the numbers don’t seem fair;

 

• 18 Apr 2019 – Collingwood 18.15.123 slaughtered Brisbane 8.13.61; and

 

• 11 Aug 2018 – Collingwood 14.20.104 defeated Brisbane 11.7.77.

Them:

 

Brisbane is very highly rated.  AFL Captains seriously rate it.

 

 

See https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-10/afl-captains-predict-tigers-lions-grand-final-showdown-2021/13234420

Richmond, Brisbane Lions top AFL captains’ tips to contest 2021 grand final – ABC News   Richmond has been tipped by rival captains to reach a fourth grand final in five seasons, with Brisbane deemed most capable of dethroning the back-to-back AFL premiers. Seven opposition skippers …   www.abc.net.au

 

Me? I’m not so sure. Looking at some recent matches gives us a better idea:

 

• Last year’s September game between us. As above, we Lost this in Q2. We fought back – a pretty good effort. When you look at the scoring it could have gone either way with a couple of kicks and this doesn’t sit well on us (both) when you consider the efficiency of scoring. More on this below under Us;

 

• Practice match (Community Series). Brisbane 18.9.117 defeated Gold Coast 13.11.89. Brisbane’s pre-season game doesn’t make much sense, statistically. They defeated the Gold Coast off a 20 Point deficit at Half Time. They had less Inside 50s (49 / 65), fewer Hit Outs (31 / 41) and Clearances (35 / 40) but had higher broad Disposal Efficiency (76.9% / 71.9%) and, significantly, much higher Disposal Efficiency Inside 50 (57.1% / 46.2%). So, when they had the ball, they used it, especially once they got it into the 50. They also had a higher measure of 1%’ers (60 / 50). And Zorko rucked and was amongst the Best. Others were Neale (HF), Bailey (FP), Berry (W), Rich (BP) and Cameron (roving; frequently in the FP);

 

• Round 1. Brisbane Lost comprehensively to Sydney, at the Gabba. Sydney included a number of debutants. After conceding the first three goals, Sydney demolished them. Brisbane lost nearly every game statistic of significance except for Clearances and Inside 50s, which were close to even. Once again, significantly, they had a lower Disposal Efficiency (75.5% / 67.9%) and, from a reasonably close Inside 50 statistic, a much lower Disposal Efficiency Inside 50 (49.2% / 42.1%). Almost the reverse of their practice match – when Sydney had the ball (most of the time) they used it better. Brisbane Best – Bailey (HF), Zorko (C), McCarthy (HF) and Coleman (off IC).

 

• Round 2. Tonight against Geelong at Kardinia Park. Go to https://www.afl.com.au/matches/3182;

 

AFL – News, Fixtures, Scores & Results – AFL.com.au Australian Football League. All the latest AFL news, video, results and information www.afl.com.au

 

• VFL practice match (https://www.lions.com.au/news/886672/smith-a-standout-in-vfl-practice-match). Added only because Smith and Berry both performed. Watch for inclusion.

 

Smith a standout in VFL practice match   Ely Smith has put his name forward for a senior call-up with a starring performance in the reserves’ scratch match against Aspley on Saturday. The Lions snatched a one-point victory with a goal just before the final siren to Tom Berry. Marcus Adams, Connor Ballenden and Jaxon Prior were other …   www.lions.com.au

 

So, watch for a rebound by Brisbane, particularly if Geelong beat them tonight. They have a strong Midfield and, with the addition of Daniher, have a strong spine. They have also crumbed well around the goal.

 

Players to watch and / or do something about:

 

• Zorko – usually Centre – critical to Midfield. May need tagging – Pendles?

 

• Bailey FP or HF;

 

• Neale –   Has been quiet so far, but is a match-winner. May also warrant close attention – Greenwood?

 

• McInerny – Ruck – Beaten by Witts (27 / 36) in practice game but on a par with Hickey against Sydney;

 

• Berry – Wing / off Interchange, if picked;

 

• Cameron – Ultimate opportunist from the FP or as rover;

 

• Starcevich – HB, occasionally ruck, for the sake of his name; and

 

• Daniher – CHF, because he can change a game. A great addition to Brisbane’s spine – Moore?.

 

Brisbane are beatable.

 

Us:

 

Team & Tasks. I think we need a couple of changes to target Brisbane’s strengths:

 

Ins:

 

• Lynch – Tall forward / 2nd ruck;

 

• Henry – speed; and

 

• Greenwood – tagger.

 

Outs:

 

• Elliott – injured; and

 

• From Hoskin-Elliott, Ruscoe and Thomas.

 

 

Game Plan. We need to focus on three things:

 

• Winning the Clearances. Dominating Inside 50s, would actually be a better target statement here – working backwards, Inside 50s rely on Clearances and the drive forward; Clearances rely on Hit Outs and action in the Midfield. A failure at any stage will result in a failure of the system. And you can add Disposal Efficiency into this process. Scoring is a direct consequence of getting the ball into the 50; and accurate kicking – look for a better placed kicker;
• Alternative avenues to goal – as demonstrated against Carlton; and

 

• High intensity commitment for four Quarters. As Bucks acknowledged in his interview following Round 1, Tackle numbers is something we pride ourselves on; Round 1 was disappointing. The chase and tackle must be maintained for four Quarters, also as demonstrated against Carlton.

 

Conclusion. We can Win this, comprehensively.

 

 

My picks. Collingwood to Win by 33 Points. BOG – Adams – 33 touches @ 87.3% DE; five Tackles and one goal; Elliott, De Goey and Cox each get two goals. Mihocek has three Goal Assists. Your thoughts?

 

 

Experts. Go to http://whotippedwhat.com/round/afl-2021-round-2/ later in the week for Round 3.

 

 

Weather. Light showers are forecast – ‘stops’, not moulded sole boots.

 

 

7. TV. FTA – 7mate from 7.00. Routine for FOXTEL and Kayo.

 

 

Other:

 

• AFLW. The girls are magnificent. I hope the guys have been watching them – there are some good lessons for them all. This week – Adelaide, in Adelaide. Go to https://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/matches/match-day-hub/aflw-round-9. This, I think, is the final H&A game. Actually, I just found it – go to https://womens.afl/news/67879/explainer-how-will-the-top-six-finals-series-work-. 2nd (us) versus 3rd (them) should define 1st, 2nd and 3rd places on the Ladder. We are unlikely to be lower than 2nd even if we lose because of our percentage advantage over Adelaide; but stepping up to 1st is a distinct possibility subject to the outcome of Brisbane’s game with Melbourne. 1st and 2nd get a week off (while the other four teams are playing Elimination Finals) and then get to play lower ranked teams (no double chance). Good luck, Ladies.

 

Official AFL Website of the Collingwood Football Club   All the information for our clash against Adelaide at Norwood Oval. Where: Norwood Oval When: Sunday 28 March Gates open: 11.10am First bounce: 12:40pm General Public Prices: Adults: $10 Under 18 …   www.collingwoodfc.com.au

 

• Injuries. Go to https://www.afl.com.au/matches/injury-list. Our list is pretty good, but so is theirs. Worth a quick look.

 

AFL Injury Update, Official Injury List AFL – AFL.com.au Early prognosis. The Bombers will be without several key position players as they enter round one, with Hurley, Ambrose, Stewart and Stringer, who has often played at full-forward, unavailable.Stringer has rejoined full training and could be back in round two, while Zaharakis is a couple of weeks away as he manages his knee injury.Nick Hind has been cleared from the shoulder issue he picked up … www.afl.com.au

 

• Footy Almanac. Go to https://www.footyalmanac.com.au/. Check out others’ comments under this – always interesting. JTH, been a bit quiet lately; not too different to my siblings, after Round1?

 

 

An appeal. Guys, this should be a two-way flow of views and opinions. Pls consider this and contribute. Remember we are all ‘family’.

 

 

Go Pies.

 

 

Cam

 

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