G’day all.
Remember a few weeks back (15 June email – identifying the specific Immediate Objectives and 22 June email relating to R15 & 16 to be exact), I identified myself as a ‘serial optimist’ (my thanks to those people who speedily agreed) and encouraged everyone to maintain the focus. I suggested we needed to Win 7 games out of the remaining ones, including preferably one out of the three games against those teams above us on the Ladder. Well we’ve got five Wins so far. Adding a likely Win over the WCE in R22, we get to eight, leaving a Win against Adelaide. Geelong (yes. I’m being generous – technically they are no longer above us on the Ladder), Hawthorn or Brisbane as our ticket into the Finals. Think we can do it? I have every faith we can. My objective would be to Win all of them to establish our confidence and scare the hell out of the competition. Just a couple of things to fix in the team, and not much time to see if they work. See more on this below.
Really good to catch up with fellow True Believers before the game.
Go Pies
Round 19 Result:
Collingwood 14.6.90 defeated Carlton 10.9.69.
Scoring shots – 20 (us) / 19 (them). The difference here emphasis the significance of the scoring divide – Goals / Behinds. See comments below particularly the Disposal Efficiency Inside the 50.
Goals scored:
- Q1. 3 (us) / 2 (them). A great start with the first three goals, the lead subsequently reduced by their scoring. That said, their inaccuracy scoring 2.4 in the Quarter compared with our 3.0 set the Margin. Check the Timeline and scores at www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/8194#timeline to see the flow of the game. + 2 Point margin in our favour at QT;
- Q2. 3 / 2. They took then lead for an extended period in the Quarter. Up and down scoring with each goal scored matched by the opponents. At no time during the 1st Half did the score seem out of reach; throughout the catch-up was within arms’ reach. Margin at HT extended to + 8 Points;
- Q3. 5 / 4. More of the same. Again they took the lead for a shorter period midway through the Quarter. Margin extended further to + 14 Points by the last change;
- Q4. 3 / 2. No lead change in this Quarter; and the progressive winning of each Quarter was starting to prevail. Scoring broadly matched, though we achieved the final goal of the game. Final Winning margin with lead changed to + 21 Points; and
- Total: 14.6 / 10.9. We Won.
Game Report – www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/8194#match-report
Coach’s Report – www.afl.com.au/video/1564150/full-post-match-r19-magpies?videoId=1564150&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1784382817001&references=AFL_MATCH:8194. In relation to this match, he emphasised the challenges and the answers to these. He spoke about the basis of the Carlton / Collingwood rivalry and his undertaking to provide a great show for the fans. He also spoke about the evolving shape of the game. Worth a watch / read.
Game Statistics
Numbers sourced from the AFL website.
| Statistic | Us / Them | Remarks
|
| Disposals | 368 / 383 | Huge difference based on their and our game plan – ‘keep’ens off’ – see UCP and Marks numbers, below.
Includes handball numbers – 161 / 159 just to highlight thedifference in ball-possession.
|
| Hit Outs | 49 / 18 | Numbers indicate our dominance here. These numbers totally surprised me. An apparent substantive dominance by us was not evident to me during the game.
Not a factual statistic anyway. Needs ‘HO to advantage’ but is indicative of our dominance in the ball-up.
|
| Clearances | 39 / 41 | Includes 11 / 16 Centre clearances and 28 / 25 stoppage clearances. A much more important statistic indicating the success of the Midfield; here very similar.
|
| Inside 50s | 51 / 53 | Should be a logical flow-on from the above and it is, broadly similar. Their marginal dominance here is a key statistic. Should lead to increased scoring – more goals, just, but didn’t.
|
| Goals scored | 14 / 10 | The end result.
Looked at as a combination of the Inside 50s statistics, above, adjusted by the Disposal Efficiency inside 50’s, below. Statistically, they should have scored more.
|
| Disposal Efficiency | 72.3% / 71.3% | Not particularly important. Across the entire game.
|
| Individual DE > 80%
|
4 / 5 | Representing disposal accuracy and inaccuracy by individuals across the game. |
| Individual DE < 50%
|
3 / 2 | |
| Disposal Efficiency Inside 50 | 43.1% / 45.3% | The other Key statistic.
The broad equivalence here, of their very minor advantage supports their very minor Inside 50 dominance.
|
| Contested Possessions | 128 / 115 | UCP – 226 / 259. Reflects their ‘ownership’ of the ball through keep’ens off tactics (UCP and marks) passage avoiding direct competition of CP. UCP is the different story and is a more accurate representation of that style of game .
|
| Possession | 41% / 43% | A key statistic. This indicates the close parity between the sides, and therefore shared control of the game, over the whole game.
|
| Marks | 87 / 111 | Includes Marks inside 50 – 13 / 12.
|
| Tackles | 72 / 48 | Includes Tackles inside 50 – 8 / 10.
Reflects effort and application – pressure.
|
| 1%’ers | 44 / 43 | Also reflects effort, particularly by Backline.
|
| Free Kicks | 22 / 15 | I simply don’t believe these numbers, because nearly every time there was any doubt (like in nearly every competition) we suffered.
|
The Game
After the huge start with three unanswered goals, by midway through Q1, we were feeling pretty confident. Then they fought back, fortunately with little accuracy in front of goal. In the 1H Carlton dominated the play. Again after a bit of a run by Carlton early in Q3, the whole tenor of the game changed, both scoring and play.
It became a truly ‘team effort’ reflecting well on everyone.
Crowd. 83,885. Fair to middling crowd. Seemingly, a very strong Pies’ supporters’ crowd.
Best: AFL website reporting identified the Best as:
- Cameron;
- NickD;
- McCreery;
- Membrey;
- Houston; and
- Anderson.
Coaches’ Votes: At www.afl.com.au/news/1565078/coaches-votes-r19-four-perfect-10s-superstars-marcus-bontempelli-and-nick-daicos-jump-clear-at-the-top, The Pies / Blues game recognised the following Pies ‘s votes:
- NickD – 9 votes;
- Cameron – 8 votes;
- Houston – 3 votes; and
- Membrey – 1 vote,
Nick’s lead reduced to 17.
VFL. Worth looking at the performances of players in the VFL competition. Last match – www.afl.com.au/vfl/matches/8495. Next game – Collingwood versus St Kilda on 24 July; ball-up at 12.05pm, at La Trobe University.
Round 20:
Thursday, 23rd July Adelaide versus Collingwood at the AO; ball-up at 7.30pm.
This game is between us in 8th position on the Ladder based on 10 Wins, 7 Losses and a single Draw and a percentage of 105.6%, and Adelaide in 5th position based on 12 Wins and 6 Losses with a percentage of 117.2%. In terms of their most recent five games, Adelaide has a mixed bag of three Wins, a Loss to Port and another Win. Our most recent five games are five Wins.
Adelaide are currently favoured to Win $1.43 (Crow’s Win) / $2.86 (Pies’ Win) as 20th July. Watch for changes on the AFL website.
Our Season is not over – Serial optimist.
Them
Adelaide finished last year on the top of the Ladder based on 18 Wins and 5 Losses and a 139.3% percentage. In the Finals, their first Loss in Week 1 was to the 4th placed Collingwood. Hawthorn completed their ejection from the Finals in the Semi-Finals. They are not doing as well this Season, but are still highly competitive.
Their passage this season, highlighting the game results, the margins and the effect on the Ladder placement follow:
| Round | Win / Loss | Opponent | Margin
Points |
Location | Position on Ladder | Comments |
| OR | Bye | 11 | ||||
| 1 | W | Collingwood | 14 | MCG | 5 | Our last meeting, but at the G. |
| 2 | L | WB | 6 | AO | 8 | |
| 3 | L | Geelong | 8 | Kardinia Park | 12 | |
| 4 | L | Freo | 2 | AO | 13 | |
| 5 | W | Carlton | 28 | AO | 11 | |
| 6 | W | St Kilda | 1 | AO | 10 | |
| 7 | L | BL | 52 | Gabba | 13 | |
| 8 | W | PA | 1 | AO | 11 | |
| 9 | W | Richmond | 37 | MCG | 8 | |
| 10 | W | NM | 68 | AO | 8 | |
| 11 | L | Hawthorn | 9 | Tasmania | 7 | |
| 12 | Bye | 8 | ||||
| 13 | W | Geelong | 1 | AO | 8 | |
| 14 | W | WB | 57 | Marvel | 6 | |
| 15 | W | Melbourne | 17 | AO | 5 | |
| 16 | L | PA | 26 | AO | 6 | |
| 17 | W | WCE | 25 | Perth | 5 | |
| 18 | W | GC | 79 | AO | 5 | |
| 19 | W | Sydney | 16 | SCG | 5 | |
| 20 | Collingwood | AO | ||||
Players to watch
- Milera – HB;
- Dawson – Centre;
- Peatling – RR;
- Rankine – HF / FP;
- Rachele – Rover / RR – goal sneak;
- McAndrew – Ruck; and
- Berry – RR / Rover / Wing.
And Tex Walker at CHF or anywhere Forward (even on the Wing).
Absences? Both Laird and Hinge are likely absentees due to injuries. Fogarty may be absent through suspension.
Tactics? Adelaide are the ‘premier pressure’ side in the competition. They have shown the ability to choke handball chains through serious tackling. So counter from the very start. Note that Peatling was recently used reasonably successfully to tag Pickett in a previous game and Thilthorpe, similarly, tagged Bontempelli (interesting size difference between them). Adelaide are also using two ‘talls’ in their Forward line – Tilthorpe and Fogarty (noting that Adelaide are fighting a suspension of Fogarty now). So, watch for some dynamic roles.
Us
Team. A couple of suggestions, noting Frampton’s suspension avoidance:
Ins:
- Coe – Ruck, changing with Cameron in the forward line?
- Sullivan – Midfield?
Outs: Two issues:
- Quaynor – injured again during the Carlton game?
- Schultz – injury?
Your thoughts?
Game Plan.
Our 5-day break is a challenge compared with their 6, however we have fond memories of games at the AO. I would prefer a slightly bigger winning margin than some of our close wins. Team, note.
Not much to change. A couple of suggestions:
- The kick-in is still not working reliably – plan and execute. This is critical. This provides the transition of the ‘ownership of the ball’ and, accordingly, ‘management of the game’ and should be seen as such. Better but not perfect;
- Again, there were way too many opponents loose (like previous games) allowing rapid ball movement by them frequently against the run of the game;
- The execution of both the kick-ins and particularly the Inside 50 attacks are happening way too slowly; opponents are being given time to pick-up our players and our free players are no longer free. Critical;
- Cover needs to be in place in all areas around packs to prevent crumbing. We were caught out with them scoring with the ball off the back of a pack. Of course, we also benefitted. Much improved;
- Again, avoid the ‘impossible’ kicks at goal. This is much better. Be willing to pass to a better position. Really important. Speed will improve access to free players (as above). Importantly, GA should be seen as more important to the team than the scoring. Also much improved; and
- Way too often passes seem to ignore the fact that opponents can, and do, move (and intercept the pass).
Season Predictions? www.afl.com.au/news/1566082/ladder-predictor-the-game-that-will-determine-the-wildcard-spots-between-gws-collingwood-and-st-kilda
Weather: Mostly sunny during the day but slippery surface and ball later. Get the boots with stops out again.
TV: FTA coverage on 7mate and 7+ and Kayo or head down to the nearest pub / club.
Prediction: Collingwood to Win by 9 Points. NickD BOG with 37 Disposals @ 93.7% DE, 4 Tackles and 417 metres Gained. Goal kickers – Cameron – 4 goals.
Next:
We’ve got a few serious challenges (see my earlier comments) coming up:
- R21 Thursday, 30 July versus Geelong at the G;
- R22 Sunday, 9 August versus the WCE in Perth;
- R23 TBA, week 10 August versus Hawthorn at the G; and
- R24 TBA, week 17 August versus BL at the G.
Attendance. We’ll be at the Geelong game. Others going? Give me a call?
Reporting. Now are any of you going to this game? Look forward to your reporting. Please? And reports from TV-watchers are equally welcome! I find it useful to listen to the commentators (prefer Kayo to FTA) who (mostly) know more about the game than we, ‘mortals’ do.
Other:
- Any feedback? Anything else?
- I would be interested in hearing how our other Mid-Season draftees are going at training noting their recognised performances at VFL level? Any comments?
Never Lose confidence. This is our year. Go Pies.
Cam
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