Greetings True Believers.
Short and sharp today. I’ve been away in Sydney, well separated from my computer and any logical place to work. And I’m off again tonight – the 2.00am train to Sydney to connect with the Airport.
Another Win. Easier to be optimistic than the alternative, in spite of how close it was. How did you feel in the closing minutes? I, sort of, still fully expected us to Win – no logic; just a feeling. In reality, of course, that was not a done deal – far from it. More on this below. Great result I hope our recent successes have bolstered our belief. I enjoyed McRae’s comments following the GC game where he highlighted the importance of momentum, particularly at this stage of the Season. Worth listening to the interview if you have a minute. This time more of a focus on technological advances.
My thanks to the Collingwood supporters of Sydney at the Royal Exchange Hotel in Marrickville in our largest, and perhaps one of the most football-wise, isolated communities in our nation. I had, in fact, dropped by previously to watch a game but it was a long time ago, but many of the names and faces were still there. Go towww.instagram.com/collingwoodnsw/. Thanks, Steve, for the reception and engagement among the group. It was most enjoyable, helped hugely by winning. Feel free to send this out to your members. Cheers.
Back to ‘the footy’. The conflict with the auld enemy is coming – sere below; Carlton now with 7 Wins from 8 under Josh, though the little drubbing by Hawthorn on Saturday was eye-opening. .
What is it that the ‘olde and bold’ Pies’ supporters say? “While making the Finals is important, even doing well in the Finals is desirable, nothing is more important than beating Carlton”.
Then it’s our responsibility.
Round 18 Result:
Collingwood 13.11.89 defeated North Melbourne 12.13.85.
Scoring shots – 24 (us) / 25 (them). Doesn’t seem to indicate any substantive difference, does it? See comments below.
Goals scored:
- Q1 4 (us) / 3 (them). A good start with the first goal, broadly matched by them and us, as the game progressed. Check the Timeline and scores at www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/8182#timeline to see the flow of the game. + 6 Point margin in our favour at QT;
- Q2 3/3. More of the same – 2 goals / 2 goals, 1 goal / 1 goal. Margin at HT reduced to + 5 Points;
- Q3 3/3. We established a substantive lead at the mid-point of the Quarter then lost it. Margin reduced further to + 3 Points;
- Q4 3/3. They dominated taking the lead for most of the Quarter. But we scored the last two goals of the game. Final Winning margin with lead changed to + 4 Points; and
- Total?????13.11 / 12.13. We Won.
Game Report – www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/8182#match-report
Coach’s Report – www.afl.com.au/video/1557791/full-post-match-r18-magpies?videoId=1557791&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1783692126001&references=AFL_MATCH:8182. Worth a watch / read.
Game Statistics
Numbers sourced from the AFL website.
| Statistic | Us / Them | Remarks
|
| Disposals | 384 / 372 | Huge difference based on their and our game plan – ‘keep’ens off’ – see UCP and Marks numbers, below.
Includes handball numbers – 170 / 159. Included just to highlight the difference in ball-possession.
|
| Hit Outs | 32 / 42 | Numbers indicate their dominance. See next on Clearances reflecting the Midfield performance.
Not a factual statistic anyway. Needs ‘HO to advantage’ but is indicative of their dominance in the ball-up, which (see Clearances, below) required our Midfield to counter.
|
| Clearances | 38 / 43 | As above, reflects positively on our Midfield. Well done.
Includes 11 / 9 Centre clearances and 27 / 34 stoppage clearances. Reflects dominance by our Midfield to turn the HO deficiency into this equivalence. Well done.
|
| Inside 50s | 57 / 56 | Should be a logical flow-on from the above and it is to a degree. Our marginal dominance here is a key statistic. Should lead to increased scoring – more goals, just.
|
| Goals scored | 13 / 12 | The end result.
Looked at as a combination of the Inside 50s statistics, above, adjusted by the Disposal Efficiency inside 50’s, below. Statistically, we should have scored more than them.
|
| Disposal Efficiency | 78.1% / 73.9% | Not particularly important. Across the entire game.
|
| Individual DE > 80%
|
11 / 7 | Representing disposal accuracy and inaccuracy by individuals across the game. Reflects well on us. |
| Individual DE < 60%
|
1 / 3 | |
| Disposal Efficiency Inside 50 | 49.1% / 50.0% | The other Key statistic.
The broad equivalence here, or their very minor advantage countering their Inside 50 inferiority balances things out.
|
| Contested Possessions | 115 / 121 | UCP – 263 / 235. Reflects their ‘ownership’ of the ball through keep’ens off tactics (UCP and marks) passage avoiding direct competition of CP. UCP is a different story and is a more accurate representation of that style of game .
|
| Possession | 43% / 41% | A key statistic. This indicates a reasonable parity between the sides, and therefore shared control of the game, over the whole game.
|
| Marks | 110 / 99 | Includes Marks inside 50 – 13 / 16.
|
| Tackles | 78 / 56 | Includes Tackles inside 50 – 15 / 14.
Reflects effort and application.
|
| 1%’ers | 32 / 42 | Also reflects effort, particularly by Backline.
|
| Free Kicks | 11 / 22 | This is a disgrace.
These numbers did not surprised me, because nearly every time there was any doubt (like in nearly every competition) we suffered.
|
Crowd: 48,369.
The Game
As detailed above, I watched the game in the company of the Collingwood supporters of Sydney. Most enjoyable.
The game felt like it was ours to Win, however the urgency wasn’t there. It was a disappointment.
No other comment at this time.
A Win is a Win is a Win
Crowd. Was anyone there?
Best: AFL website reporting identified the Best as:
- JoshD;
- NickD;
- McStay;
- Lipinski; and
- De Goey.
Coaches’ Votes: At www.afl.com.au/news/1560993/coaches-votes-r18-western-bulldogs-skipper-marcus-bontempelli-closes-the-gap-to-collingwood-magpies-nick-daicos-five-perfect-10s. The Pies / North game recognised the following Pies ‘s votes:
7 Josh Daicos (COLL)
6 Darcy Cameron (COLL)
4 Jeremy Howe (COLL)
3 Nick Daicos (COLL)
1 Tim Membrey (COLL)
Nick’s lead reduced to 18.
I don’t really have any issues with the Best selections on the AFL website but might suggest you have a look at the Player Stats under the Game report – Goal Assist (GA) numbers recorded in the Basic reporting and the Score Involvement (SI) in the Advanced reporting. Maybe also have a look at the Metres Gained (mG) in the Basic reporting. Yes, I know, it’s a combination of things.
VFL. Worth looking at the performances of players in the VFL competition Go towww.collingwoodfc.com.au/news/2065864/vfl-match-report-young-forward-kicks-five-in-43-point-win-over-north. Some consistent performers.
Round 19:
Saturday, 18th July Collingwood versus Carlton at the MCG; ball-up at 7.35pm.
This game is between us in 8th position on the Ladder based on 9 Wins, 7 Losses and a single Draw and a percentage of 104.4% and Carlton in 12th position based on 8 Wins and 9 Losses with a percentage of 91.9%. Importantly, here, the separation of the two teams on the Ladder is only 6 Points. As such, below the 7th position, there is real potential to shift both up or down; mostly stable or down. Our position is helped by our percentage. In terms of their most recent five games, both teams are broadly similar and each has had substantial Losses where the result was a surprise – especially Carlton’s last.
Want a prediction? Go to www.afl.com.au/news/1561004/ladder-predictor-collingwood-magpies-and-carlton-blues-to-miss-finals-top-four-locked-in.
We are currently favoured to Win $1.67 (Pies’ Win) / $2.21 (Carlton Win) as 14th July. Watch for changes on the AFL website.
The Season? Our Season is not over – Serial optimist.
Them
Carlton finished last year in 11th place on the Ladder based on 9 Wins and 14 Losses and a 96.7% percentage.
Their performance this year falls into two quite distinct periods – Rounds 1 to 9 and Rounds 10 to 18. The change coincides with the appointment of an Acting Coach. He is well known to us as Collingwood’s former (sole?) No 1 draft pick a few years back, his stellar performance in the Ruck for many years and, more recently, as the Coach of the VFL side. We wish him well on all occasions except when his team is playing ours. I am not saying that the appointment reflects the changed performance, however the change is substantial. When I was looking at their Best at each game there were clear differences of individuals between the two periods. Examples – Cripps scored once in the first period; seven times in the second period. Walsh was identified seven times in the first period; five times in the second. Pittonet was identified four times in their Best in the first period; none in the second.
Their passage this Season, highlighting the game results, the margins and the effect on the Ladder placement follow:
| Round | Win / Loss | Opponent | Margin
Points |
Location | Position on Ladder | Comments |
| OR | L | Sydney | 63 | SCG | 10 | |
| 1 | W | Richmond | 4 | MCG | 11 | |
| 2 | Bye | 15 | ||||
| 3 | L | Melbourne | 23 | MCG | 16 | |
| 4 | L | NM | 10 | Marvel | 15 | |
| 5 | L | Adelaide | 28 | AO | 16 | |
| 6 | L | Collingwood | 5 | MCG | 16 | |
| 7 | L | Fremantle | 14 | Perth | 16 | |
| 8 | L | St Kilda | 39 | Marvel | 16 | |
| 9 | L | BL | 11 | Gabba | 16 | |
| 10 | W | WB | 12 | Marvel | 16 | New coach acting. |
| 11 | W | PA | 34 | AO | 15 | |
| 12 | W | Geelong | 4 | MCG | 14 | |
| 13 | W | Essendon | 5 | MCG | 13 | |
| 14 | Bye | 14 | ||||
| 15 | W | GWS | 23 | Engie Stad | 14 | |
| 16 | W | WCE | 53 | Marvel | 12 | |
| 17 | W | Richmond | 2 | MCG | 10 | |
| 18 | L | Hawthorn | 64 | MCG | 12 | |
| 19 | Collingwood | MCG | ||||
Players to watch?
- Cripps – RR / Centre / Rover;
- Smith – RR / Rover;
- Walsh – Centre;
- Weitering – FB. I would consider tagging him to reduce his influence; and
- McKay – FF.
Us
Team. A couple of suggestions:
Ins:
- Coe – Ruck, changing with Cameron in the forward line?
- Sullivan – Midfield?
Outs: Two issues:
- Frampton – suspension?
- Schultz – injury?
Your thoughts?
Game Plan.
Not much to change. A couple of suggestions:
- The kick-in is still not working reliably – plan and execute. This is critical. This provides the transition of the ‘ownership of the ball’ and, accordingly, ‘management of the game’ and should be seen as such;
- Again, there were way too many opponents loose (like previous games) allowing rapid ball movement by them frequently against the run of the game;
- The execution of both the kick-ins and particularly the Inside 50 attacks are happening way too slowly; opponents are being given time to pick-up our players and our free players are no longer free;
- Cover needs to be in place in all areas around packs to prevent crumbing. We were caught out with them scoring with the ball off the back of a pack. Of course, we also benefitted. Much improved;
- Again, avoid the ‘impossible’ kicks at goal. This is much better. Be willing to pass to a better position. Really important. Speed will improve access to free players (as above). Importantly, GA should be seen as more important to the team than the scoring; and
- Way too often passes seem to ignore the fact that opponents can, and do, move (and intercept the pass).
Your thoughts?
Weather? Dry and cold. Plastic boots okay.
TV? No FTA coverage; Go to Kayo or head down to the nearest pub / club.
Prediction? Collingwood to Win by 39 Points. NickD BOG with 39 Disposals @ 93.7% DE, 7 Tackles and 413 metres Gained. Goal kickers – Cameron – 4 goals.
Next:
We’ve got a few serious challenges coming up:
- R20 Thursday, 23 July versus Adelaide at AO;
- R21 Thursday, 30 July versus Geelong at the G; and
R22 Sunday, 9 August versus the WCE in Perth.
Attendance. We’ll be at the Carlton game. Others going? Give me a call?
Reporting. Now are any of you going to this game? Look forward to your reporting? Please? And Reports from TV-watchers are equally welcome? I find it useful to listen to the commentators (prefer Kayo to FTA) who (mostly) know more about the game than we, ‘mortals’ do.
Other:
- Any feedback? Anything else?
- I would be interested in hearing how our other Mid-Season draftees are going at training noting their recognised performances at VFL level? Any comments?
Never Lose confidence. This is our year. Go Pies.
To return to the www.footyalmanac.com.au home page click HERE.
Our writers are independent contributors. The opinions expressed in their articles are their own. They are not the views, nor do they reflect the views, of Malarkey Publications.
Do you enjoy the Almanac concept?
And want to ensure it continues in its current form, and better? To help keep things ticking over please consider making your own contribution.
Become an Almanac (annual) member – CLICK HERE
Leave a Comment