Ladies & gentlemen, True Believers all, greetings,
Firstly, some have been a little critical of my unbiassed optimism, especially in the face of Sydney in Sydney, for example, or Brisbane in Brisbane (less so now). I see this as my clear role, to be supportive, maybe to make some suggestions for improvement, but essentially to be there in support. Someone asked me once “When did you start supporting the Pies?” My reply: “I don’t remember. Probably when I was born”.
So, don’t be too depressed. Yet. We have six H&A games left in this Season. We are reasonably, if not terrifically, placed to make the Eight. And be in no doubt that if we beat Carlton (R21) and Sydney in Sydney (R22) we will head into the Finals full of confidence; and scare the hell out of every other team. The other games include Hawthorn (see below), Richmond, Brisbane at the MCG and Melbourne. Last weekend three teams in the top 5 places were beaten – Carlton by the Bulldogs, Freo by Hawthorn and Essendon by Melbourne. There are still a number of teams vying for Finals.
This week? A pretty appalling performance – more on this below. I had a view, up to the last few minutes, that we could turn the game around and win. Wasn’t to be. I don’t think Geelong played well; we, however, apart from instances, were pretty awful – more on that below.
Regardless,
Go Pies.
Round 18
Collingwood 10.11.71 were defeated by Geelong 13.13.91.
Scoring shots 21 (us) / 26 (them).
Possession percentage: 36% (us) / 46% (them).
Match Report: www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/6046
Coach’s interview: www.afl.com.au/video/1169481/full-post-match-r18-magpies?videoId=1169481&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1720792458001
Note his advice that he was not interested in offering excuses but, at times, felt that Collingwood had a dark cloud sitting over it.
Goals:
- Q1 4 (us) / 3 (them) – an awful start where Geelong kicked three goals in as many minutes, slowly recovered giving us a 6-Point lead at the first break;
- Q2 2 / 4 – slow domination by Geelong establishing a 4-Point deficit at Half Time;
- Q3 2 / 3 – more of the same by Geelong establishing an 11-Point deficit at the final change; and
- Q4 2 / 3 – some shared dominance but an inability to take control of the game. Final result – a deficit of 20-Points. We showed no ability to establish control of the game; and
- Total: 10 / 13; a Loss by 20 Points.
Numbers (some statistics taken, with comments): The numbers should be treated with some caution because they are a record across the whole game. In this diin Q1 and Q3; they certainly did Q2 and Q4. However, with some comments, they are interesting: I’m just going to mention a few critical statistics:
| Statistic | Numbers
Us / Them |
Comments |
| Disposals | 337 / 393 | Normally not included, but here the difference was so substantial. Of note, something we pride ourselves on, the handball component – 137 / 117 was a huge part of this and the kicking? 200 / 276,. |
| Hit Outs (HO) | 64 / 22 | I simply don’t believe this. And, of course, its relevance is highly suspect because it is not a measure of the effectiveness of the rucking – that would be HO to advantage. |
| Clearances | 35 / 42 | Very close. Includes: 6 / 16 Centre clearances and 29 / 26 stoppage clearances.
This is potentially, hugely significant, but given the closeness of the numbers, not too much. ‘Clearance to Inside 50 to Goal’ is the ideal progression. Here, our Midfield is marginally deficient. See Next. |
| Inside 50s | 41 / 62 | 21 deficit. This is significant because of the flow-through of the Clearance dominance. Given the numbers are a comparison of the number of times the ball is in a position from where a score can result it usually flows from these Clearance numbers. The challenge? How effectively did each side use it? See below. |
| Disposal Efficiency (DE) | 66.5% / 73.5% | Not too different. Not particularly useful, anyway, across the whole game. |
| DE inside 50 | 56,1% / 45.2% | This is the critical difference relating to Clearances and Inside 50s, identified above. This is where you see how effectively the teams use their entry into the 50 – and we recorded a huge advantage. And their advantage of Inside 50 numbers is cancelled by these numbers. |
| Goals scored | 10 / 13 | The fundamental result. Could have been much more. |
| Players with DE of 80% | 3 / 9 | Quite significant difference reflecting how they were playing the game, compared with us. And how many of our passes went directly to an opponent? |
| Contested Possessions (CP) | 120 / 117 | Not significantly different. The measure of how hard each team is working – CP, Tackles and Turnovers combined. |
| Uncontested Possessions (UCP) | 192 / 252 | This was a huge measure of how they played the game passing the ball between uncontested players – boring ‘keep’ens off footy’. |
| Time in Possession? | 36% / 46% | Ownership of the ball across the whole game. Possessions win games. |
| Turnovers | 54 / 61 | Really important – see above, though not materially different. |
| Marks (M) | 75 / 145 | Across game. See comments above re UCP. |
| M inside 50 | 13 / 14 | Impacts on DE inside 50 numbers. Substantial dominance by Essendon. |
| Tackles (T) | 58 / 53 | Across game.
|
| T inside 50 | 6 / 13 | Also impacts on DE inside 50 numbers. Same Essendon dominance.
|
| 1 %’ers | 47 / 33 | Really important. This also something we pride ourselves on.
|
| Free kicks | 14 / 15
|
This number comparison surprised me. I thought the umps did a poor job. |
The Game: Remembering the comment in previous weeks about how hard it is to watch some games, this one fell into that category. I actually did think, apart from the last few minutes, that we could and would turn it around and Win. Didn’t happen.
We looked both tired and a bit slow. I’d be tempted to ‘rest’ some players, selections based, firstly, on motivation. No names.
Our ball handling was awful, as was our decision-making regarding where and when to pass. And far too frequently people were spinning out of tackles. Note the difference in numbers with DE of 80% or higher. It wasn’t us.
The result: The Pies are now sitting 10th on the Ladder outside the Eight, one Win away from much higher on the Ladder plus percentage. See below for our next game.
Best: The AFL website identifies the following as Best – Cameron, NickD, Sidey, Noble and De Goey. Don’t disagree their inclusions.
Injuries: NickD and Schultz. I am not confident Cameron is not carrying an injury?
Crowd: 73,435.
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Round 19
Saturday, 20th July – Collingwood versus Hawthorn at the MCG; bounce at 4.35pm.
Hawthorn are sitting at 13th on the Ladder, one place behind us, with 9 Wins and 8 Losses giving a 95.4% percentage. The numbers are reasonably close to our 8 Wins, 7 Losses and 2 Draws and 102.9%. Hawthorn come into this game following a 13 Point Win over Freo (played in Tasmania) whereas we come into the game following three Losses.
Hawthorn had a shocker of a start to the Season with five Losses in a row, none of which would count as a surprise, including our Win in R4 by 5 Points. The Win wasn’t a surprise. The margin was. The balance of their year to their R15 Bye is pretty positive – Losses to Sydney (at the MCG) and Port at Adelaide Oval by a single Point, but Wins against WB, BL and GWS. And they really like playing in Tasmania.
More recently they’ve been up and down with Wins over WCE and Freo and a Loss to Geelong (by 51 Points).
Current betting is $1.94 / $1.90. They are favourites (just).
Them:
Tactics: Importantly, Hawthorn recovered from a 10-Point Q4 deficit last week scoring 5 goals to 1. Importantly, SiIcily, back after an injury was moved from his more usual CHB position to the Forward line. This was a success. The other key element was Hawthorn’s willingness to fight to the end, even when they’d established a comfortable lead. And a couple of weeks back, they held off a come-back playing against St Kilda.
Injuries: They have a short Injury List including a couple of key players in doubt – D’Ambrosia, Ginnivan and Wingard (the latter two were tested before the last game, obviously not making the grade – might be available this week).
Players to watch:
- Newcombe – Rover;
- Sicily – CHB / CHF;
- Nash – Wing / HF;
- Moore – also Rover;
- Amon – Wing; and
- Dear – FF / CHF.
Also keep an eye on Ginnivan – FP, if he is playing. Maybe tag him for a bit of fun?
Us:
Nothing needs to change from last week except some changes to replace the injuries; maybe a rest or two:
- Team? Replace NickD, Schultz and, potentially, Cameron. I also thought that Quaynor and Markov might benefit from a rest. Who to replace? Your thoughts?
- Application? Possession of the ball lets you win the match – lose possession and you are fighting backwards. No change.
- Game Plan? No change to the current plan. Work on kick-in plan. Work on a Plan that runs for four Quarters. Work on coordination of the Forward line and the Backline. Avoid disrupting the Backline to ease the burden on the Forwards. Leave Frampton back and leave Howe there. Continue to better arrange and coordinate delivery into and across the 50 – plans. Speed up the movement out of the Backline – establish plans to execute this.
- Practice tackling.
- Be happy? Much improved.
Necessary Actions?:
- Close attention to the Midfield noting the absence of key Geelong players (without Dangerfield; with him, tag him); Win the Midfield battle – use the measures of Clearances and Inside 50s to assess;
- Close attention to their CHF (Stengle) and CHB (Stewart); and
- Enjoy the Win.
TV: No free to air coverage on TV. But on Kayo, whose commentators I prefer.
Weather: Rain is forecast on the days leading to the game and on the day. Get the boots with ‘stops’ out. No slip sliding.
My prediction: Collingwood to Win by 33 Points.
BOG – De Goey with 31 Disposals @ 82.0% DE, 13 Cl and 3 GA.
Richards scores 4 goals; Elliot and Hill get two each.
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The Future
- Round 20. Sunday, 28th July Collingwood versus Richmond at the MCG; bounce at 1.10pm. Same – no FTA coverage. Go Kayo or head to the nearest pub / Club
- Round 21- Saturday, 3rd August Collingwood versus the olde enemy, Carlton, at the MCG; bounce at 7.30pm. FTA coverage on Channel 7; and
- Round 22 – Friday, 9th August Sydney versus Collingwood at the SCG; bounce at 7.40pm. FTA TV coverage on Channel 7
- VFL. Still a few to go, still. Last weekend Geelong beat us. Next weekend, Round 17, is versus Carlton at Ikon Park on Saturday, 21th July; bounce at 1.05pm. Anyone attending? Briefs please? Go Boys.
- VFLW. No more, ladies.
Games: Remember for those who can’t get to the VFL / VFLW games, you can watch them live at www.afl.com.au/stream-your-team?utm_source=aflcomau&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=state_league_streaming.
Ground Reports? Now I’m not sure who went to the last game. Is anyone going to the next? I’d like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar? More please.
Always believe. Go Pies.
Cam
Read more of Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life HERE.
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