Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life: Round 17 Review, Round 18 Preview

 

True Believers, warmest greetings to all, quite literally.  A reminder the ambient temperature in Phuket is around 27 degrees which, of course, compares well with the cold-snap in SE Australia with Canberra at 8 degrees and Melbourne at 7. The challenge for us is to find somewhere to watch the games. We have a favourite spot at a local pub for the Geelong game. The one after? Not so good – we’ll be travelling.

 

Okay, we are now out of the Eight. Is that important? Not really. We have a few weeks to get back and, as the coach says, making the Finals is the sole objective. Noting the Ladder, with the closeness of the teams, we could very easily be in the Top Half, eventually.

 

Go Pies

 

 

Round 17

Collingwood 12.8.80 were defeated by Essendon 13.14.92.

Scoring shots 20 (us) / 27 (them).

Possession percentage: 37% (us) / 48% (them).

 

Match Report. www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/6031#match-report. Have a look at the Match Timeline here to understand just how the game evolved.

 

Coach’s interview. www.afl.com.au/video/1163973/full-post-match-r17-magpies?videoId=1163973&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1720187464001&references=AFL_MATCH:6031. Worth listening to. His statements “hard to watch at times” and “we do / what we want to be” focus on the team aspects – process rather than individuals.

 

Goals:

  • Q1      5 (us) / 2 (them) – a good start but wasted lead allowing them to score late. Result – 15-Point lead at the first break;
  • Q2      3 / 4 – a slow but progressive reduction of our lead resulting in an 8-Point lead at Half Time;
  • Q3      0 / 4 – they dominated with four goals to none establishing a 17-Point deficit at the final change; and
  • Q4      4 / 3 – some shared dominance by us without the ability to shut down the game; and
  • Total:   12 / 13; a Loss by 12 Points.

 

Numbers (some statistics taken, with comments). The numbers should be treated with some caution because they are a record across the whole game. In this game we dominated in Q1 and Q3; they certainly did Q2 and Q4. However, with some comments, they are interesting:

 

Statistic Numbers

Us / Them

Comments
Disposals 340 / 404 Normally not included, but here the difference was so substantial. Of note, something we pride ourselves on, the handball component – 131 / 152 was a huge part of this.
Hit Outs (HO) 33/ 40 This surprised me. I thought Cameron did all right.
Clearances 33 / 36 Includes: 11 / 12 Centre clearances and 22 / 24 stoppage clearances.

This is hugely significant.

‘Clearance to Inside 50 to Goal’ is the ideal progression. Here, our Midfield is deficient. See Next.

Inside 50s 45 / 48 This is significant because of the flow-through of the Clearance dominance. Given the numbers are a comparison of the number of times the ball is in a position from where a score can result it usually flows from these Clearance numbers. The challenge? How effectively did each side use it? See below.
Disposal Efficiency (DE) 72.6% / 79.2% Not too different. Not particularly useful, anyway, across the whole game.
DE inside 50  46.7% / 58.3% This is the critical difference relating to Clearances and Inside 50s, identified above. This is where you see how effectively the teams use their entry into the 50 – and we recorded a huge disadvantage. And their  advantage of Inside 50 numbers is further enhanced by this measure. The result? Statistically they deserved to Win.
Goals scored 12 / 13 The fundamental result. Could have been much more.
Players with DE of 80% 6 / 12 Quite significant difference reflecting how they were playing the game, compared with us.
Contested Possessions (CP) 105 / 115 Minus 10. The measure of how hard each team is working – CP, Tackles and Turnovers combined. A significant difference between the sides – more than 10%.
Uncontested Possessions (UCP) 218 / 279 Minus 61. This was a huge measure of how they played the game passing the ball between uncontested players – boring ‘keep’ens off footy’.
Time in Possession? 37% / 48% Ownership of the ball across the whole game. Possessions win games.
Turnovers 61 / 56 Really important – see above, though not materially different.
Marks (M) 89 / 139 Across game.
M inside 50 10 / 18 Impacts on DE inside 50 numbers. Substantial dominance by Essendon.
Tackles (T) 43 / 56 Across game.

 

T inside 50 4 / 12 Also impacts on DE inside 50 numbers. Same Essendon dominance.

 

1 %’ers 41 / 35 Really important. This also something we pride ourselves on.

 

Free kicks 12 / 15 This number comparison surprised me. I thought the umps did a poor job.

 

The Game

As McRae said, this game was hard to watch. It seemed that frequently the ball’s bounce worked against us or the umpires failed to see those offences, so clearly evident to we, supporters.

 

The game reflected Essendon’s commitment, compared with periods when it appeared we might prefer to be somewhere else. “Not happy, Jan”.

 

And the serious injuries continue.

 

The result: The Pies are now sitting 9th on the Ladder outside the Eight, one Win away from much higher on the Ladder plus percentage. See below for our next game.

 

Best: The AFL website identifies the following as Best – NickD, Crisp, Sidey and Pendles. Don’t disagree their inclusions.

 

Injuries: Mihocek and Quaynor. Cameron looked very dodgy late in the game?

 

Crowd – 81, 711, as you might expect given the status of the two opponents..

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Round 18

 

Friday, 12th July  – Collingwood versus Geelong at the MCG; bounce at 7.40pm.

 

We’ve had a number of great games against Geelong in the last couple of seasons. They are sitting (quietly) at 5th on the Ladder with 10 Wins and 6 Losses, with a 109.7% percentage, against our 8 Wins, 6 Losses and 2 Draws with a 104.5% percentage. But, they are sitting only one Win, plus percentage, above us

 

Geelong had a fantastic start to the Season with 7 Wins; followed by 4 Losses and, subsequent to those, up and down. They come into this game with a solid destruction

 

Current betting is $1.90 / $1.94. We are favourites (just).

 

A personal view? After 8-years of boarding school in Geelong, where Kardinia Park was one of only a few locations you could attend without parents, plus siblings who are all Geelong supporters, is it any wonder I rate beating Geelong more highly than, even, Carlton? Any comments from my brothers?

 

Them

Geelong have been in a process of renewal over the last couple of years but they still have an experienced core of senior players

 

Injuries. They have a short Injury List including a couple of key players in doubt – Hawkins (unlikely), Henry (likely), Dangerfield (don’t know)

 

Players to watch:

  • Holmes – Wing;
  • Stewart – BP / CHB;
  • Cameron – FP / FF;
  • Miers – FF;
  • Stengle – CHF

 

Also keep an eye on Dangerfield – Centre / RR, if he is playing.

 

Us

Nothing needs to change from last week except some changes to replace any injuries; rest no change:

  • Team? Replace Mihocek, Quaynor and, potentially, Cameron. Who to replace? Your thoughts?
  • Application? Possession of the ball lets you win the match – lose possession and you are fighting backwards. No change.
  • Game Plan? No change to the current plan. Work on kick-in plan. Work on a Plan that runs for four Quarters. Work on coordination of the Forward line and the Backline. Avoid disrupting the Backline to ease the burden on the Forwards. Leave Frampton back and leave Howe there. Continue to better arrange and coordinate delivery into and across the 50 – plans. Speed up the movement out of the Backline – establish plans to execute this.
  • Be happy? Much improved.

Necessary Actions?

  • Close attention to the Midfield noting the absence of key Geelong players (without Dangerfield; with him, tag him); Win the Midfield battle – use the measures of Clearances and Inside 50s to assess;
  • Close attention to their CHF (Stengle) and CHB (Stewart); and
  • Enjoy the Win.

TV.     No free to air coverage on TV. But on Kayo, whose commentators I prefer.

 

Weather. Rain is forecast on the days leading to the game and on the day. Get the boots with ‘stops’ out

 

My prediction.          Collingwood to Win by 19 Points.

BOG – De Goey with 34 Disposals @ 71.5% DE, 12 Clearances and 1 goal.

Richards scores 4 goals.

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The Future

  • Round 19. Saturday, 20thJuly Hawthorn versus Collingwood at the MCG; bounce at 4.35pm. No FTA TV coverage. Go Kayo.
  • Round 20. Sunday, 28thJuly Collingwood versus Richmond at the MCG; bounce at 1.10pm. Same – no FTA coverage. Go Kayo or head to the nearest pub / Club.

 

Other

 

Ground Reports? Now I’m not sure who went to the last game. Is anyone going to the next? I’d like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar?  More please.

 

Always believe. Go Pies.

Cam

 

 

Read more of Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life HERE.

 

 

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