Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life: Round 16 Review, Round 17 Preview

 

 

True Believers, g’day to all.

 

A starter: Who said: “How many times do you want to be in that position?” and, slightly expanded: “How many times do you want to put yourself in a position where you’re going to have to do this miraculous comeback?” Yep, our coach, McRae. Recorded by Michael Whiting on the AFL website. Now, if the coach stated his pride and frustration, what about us, the great Magpie Army. Where do your frustrations sit? I missed from HT to the last 5 minutes of the game (have watched the replay since) and didn’t particularly appreciate having to watch the last 5 minutes in public.

 

Go Pies.

 

 

Round 16

 

Collingwood 13.12.90 were defeated by the Gold Coast 14.17.101.

Scoring shots 25 (us) / 31 (them).

Possession percentage: 38% (us) / 46% (them).

Go Pies.

 

Match Report. www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/6024#match-report. Have a look at the Match Timeline here to understand just how the game evolved, particularly Q4.

 

Coach’s interview. www.afl.com.au/video/1160656/full-post-match-r16-magpies?videoId=1160656&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1719655650001&references=AFL_MATCH:6024. Worthwhile listening / watching – not too much of significance really. And if you’d like to see “professionalism writ large” go to www.afl.com.au/video/1160652/full-post-match-r16-suns?videoId=1160652&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1719655606001&references=AFL_MATCH:6024 and listen to Hardwick speak about Daicos and De Goey, and the Collingwood team, more generally.

 

Goals:

  • Q1      4 (us) / 4 (them) – up and down leading to a 1 Point lead;
  • Q2      1 / 4 – a slow rise in our deficit leading to a 20-Point deficit at Half Time;
  • Q3      3 / 4 – more of the same resulting in an expanded 26-Point deficit at the final change; and
  • Q4      5 / 2 – dominance by us until the 4-minutes to go mark; then two quick goals to the Gold Coast and it’s all over, totalling…
  • Total:   13 / 14; a Loss by 11 Points.

Numbers (some statistics taken, with comments). The numbers should be treated with some caution because they are a record across the whole game. In this game we dominated in Q1 and Q3; they certainly did Q2 and Q4. However, with some comments, they are interesting:

 

Statistic Numbers

Us / Them

Comments
Disposals 328 / 400 Normally not included, but here the difference was so substantial. Of note, something we pride ourselves on, the handball component – 132 / 187 was a huge part of this.
Hit Outs (HO) 37/ 35 This surprised me. I thought Witts was dominant, particularly in how he directed the ball to his Mids (HO to advantage).
Clearances 39 / 32 Includes: 11 / 12 Centre clearances and 28 / 20 stoppage clearances.

This is hugely significant.

‘Clearance to Inside 50 to Goal’ is the ideal progression. Here, our Midfield is dominating. See Next.

Inside 50s 50 / 68 This is significant because of the reversal of the Clearance dominance. Given the numbers are a comparison of the number of times the ball is in a position from where a score can result it usually flows from the Clearance numbers. The challenge? How effectively did each side use it? See below.
Disposal Efficiency (DE) 67.1% / 72.5% Not too different. Not particularly useful, anyway, across the whole game.
DE inside 50  56.0% / 48.5% This is the critical difference relating to Clearances and Inside 50s, identified above. This is where you see how effectively the teams use their entry into the 50 – and we recorded a substantial advantage over them. But, their advantage of Inside 50 numbers is seemingly matched by our DE inside 50 advantage. The result? Very similar goals scored; see next.
Goals scored 13 / 14 The fundamental result.
Players with DE of 80% 6 / 5 Not significant. I thought the standard of ball-handling skills by us, in particular, was comparatively poor – many errors. GC handling was very clean.
Contested Possessions (CP) 121 / 137 Minus 16. The measure of how hard each team is working – CP, Tackles and Turnovers combined. A significant difference between the sides – more than 10%.
Uncontested Possessions (UCP) 187 / 258 Minus 71. This was a huge measure of how they played the game passing the ball between uncontested players.
Time in Possession? 38% / 46% Ownership of the ball across the whole game.
Turnovers 72 / 59 Really important – see above.
Marks (M) 67 / 89 Across game.
M inside 50 11 /11 Impacts on DE inside 50 numbers.
Tackles (T) 72 / 51 Across game.

 

T inside 50 7 / 12 Also impacts on DE inside 50 numbers.

 

1 %’ers 39 / 52 Really important. This also something we pride ourselves on and were soundly beaten here.

 

Free kicks 18 / 17 This number comparison surprised me. I thought the umps did a poor job.

 

The Game

The GC played this game as they decided for the bulk of three Quarters, though you can argue Q1 was a Draw. Their pressure was simply magnificent. Their ball handling was outstanding. Over the period of Q2 and Q3, they scored eight goals to our total of four. This period set up their Winning margin, which just needed to be added to a little at the end. The Pies’ late attack from late in Q3 to the four-minutes to go time frame was superb. See Coach McRae’s comments at the start of this email.

Analysing the GC performance is a challenge – their possession numbers were superb, dominating the game, their Inside 50 numbers were outstanding, offset by poor DE inside the 50. On balance between the teams, either side could have Won. Certainly they (like NM the week before) do not play like a ‘bottom Ladder’ team.

The result: The Pies are now sitting 6th on the Ladder outside the Top 4 by one Win, plus percentage.

 

Best: The AFL website identifies the following as Best – NickD, De Goey, Howe, JoshD and Sidey. Don’t disagree their inclusions. I would probably have added Bobby Hill; he seemed always to be in the right place at the right time and always looking for a better placed goal-kicker.

Injuries: McCreery’s injury was acknowledged. Also heard that Noble and Maynard were hurt. Noble – concussion; Maynard – no detail yet.

Crowd – 23,029. A record for up there. I don’t understand the apparent refusal by the Pies to play in Canberra. The Manuka ground holds more than that.


 

 

 

 

Round 17

Friday, 5th July Collingwood versus Essendon at the MCG; bounce at 7.40pm.

Essendon are sitting above us on the Ladder in 4th place with 9 Wins, 5 Losses and 1 Draw totalling 38 Points compared with our 6thplace with 36 Points from 8 Wins, 5 Losses and 2 Draws for a 105.8% percentage.

Current betting is $1.49 / $2.64. We are favourites.

 

Them

Essendon have been amongst the favourites to make the Finals for some time. Last year they spent much of the year in the 8, dropping out in the last few Rounds. Indeed, their Loss to Collingwood in Round 24 by 70 Points was pretty debilitating (for them). This year their Wins are spread throughout the competition but don’t include any that you might have expected otherwise. Their last five matches include:

  • Win over Richmond by 12 Points at the MCG;
  • Loss to the GC by 11 at the GC;
  • Loss to Carlton by 26 at the MCG;
  • Win over WCE by 30 at Marvel, the location of 5 of their Wins; and
  • Loss to Geelong by 45 Points at the MCG. This game was broadly even to HT, then overtaken by a progressive Geelong dominance. This most recent game does not sit well with advocates of pressure to the very end.

Once again, we see a team focussed on their Midfield and the corridor, shown by the locations of the Players to watch, listed below.

Injuries. They have a short Injury List having had a number of players return for their last game.

 

Players to watch:

  • Merrett – Rover / RR;
  • Martin – HB;
  • Caldwell – Rover / Centre / RR;
  • Langford – CHF / FF; and
  • Durham – Centre / HF / Wing.

Also keep an eye on Goldstein, in the ruck; a most competent, traditional type ruck.

 

Us

Nothing needs to change from last week except some changes to replace any injuries:

  • Team? Replace McCreery with Richards, Sidey with De Mattia and Noble with Bytel. Who to replace? Your thoughts?
  • Application? Possession of the ball lets you win the match – lose possession and you are fighting backwards. No change.
  • Game Plan? No change to the current plan. Work on kick-in plan. Work on a Plan that runs for four Quarters. Work on coordination of the Forward line and the Backline. Avoid disrupting the Backline to ease the burden on the Forwards. Leave Frampton back and leave Howe there. Continue to better arrange and coordinate delivery into and across the 50 – plans. Speed up the movement out of the Backline – establish plans to execute this.
  • Be happy? Much improved.

Necessary Actions?

  • Close attention to their Midfield; Win the Midfield battle – use the measures of Clearances and Inside 50s to assess;
  • Close attention to their CHF (Langford) and CHB (Redman); and
  • Enjoy the Win.
  1. TV.     Free to air coverage on 7mate and Channel 7. Also on Kayo, depending on which commentators you prefer.

 

Weather.

 

My prediction.          Collingwood to Win by 23 Points.

BOG – De Goey with 31 Disposals @ 83.9% DE, 11 Clearances and 1 goal.

Richards scores 4 goals.

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The Future

  • Round 18. Friday, 12th July Collingwood versus Geelong at the MCG; bounce at 7.40pm. Broadcast on 7mate and Kayo.
  • Round 19. Saturday, 20th July Hawthorn versus Collingwood at the MCG; bounce at 4.35pm. No FTA TV coverage. Go Kayo.

 

Other

 

Ground Reports? Now I’m not sure who went to the last game. Is anyone going to the next? I’d like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar?  More please.

Always believe. Go Pies.

Cam

 

Read more of Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life HERE.

 

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