True Believers, g’day.
Back on the ‘winners’ list’; a good move. Actually, a pretty good game by both sides. Don’t let anyone tell you it was an ‘easy’ win; nothing is further from the truth. If Melbourne had been able to kick straight, they could have been 5 goals up at Q Time; not saying they would have won. Just that life could have been more stressful. It was a hard-fought match between two good teams. More on this below. Our immediate future includes North and a Bye; then check the team picks before the Round 16 game – could be a few back. More on that next week (or so).
Go Pies.
Round 13
Collingwood 14.5.89 defeated Melbourne 6.15.51.
Scoring shots 19 (us) / 21 (them).
Go Pies.
Match Report. www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/6008. Have a look at the Match Timeline here to understand just how the game evolved.
Coach’s interview. www.afl.com.au/video/1149709/full-post-match-r13-magpies?videoId=1149709&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1718009371001&references=AFL_MATCH:6008. Worthwhile listening – a bit on planning for the upcoming game – how do you deal with Gawn / Oliver / Viney? Where does the Method evolve into a System to get a Result flow from? But he did acknowledge that he didn’t know whether Melbourne would be on the “rebound” from their week before.
Goals:
- Q1 3 (us) / 0 (them) – we established an early lead that was largely untroubled for the rest of the Quarter – 15 Point lead – it was a myriad of lost opportunities by Melbourne. They could have had the lead;
- Q2 4 / 2 – We got the first and then 3 towards the end resulting in a 27-Point lead at Half Time;
- Q3 4 / 2 – not dissimilar across the Quarter. We took a 34-Point lead at the final change; and
- Q4 3 / 2 – again, up and down a bit, totalling…
- Total: 14 / 6; a Win by 38 Points.
Numbers (some statistics taken, with comments). The numbers should be treated with some caution because they are a record across the whole game. In this game we dominated in Q1 and Q3; they certainly did Q2 and Q4. However, with some comments, they are interesting:
| Statistic | Numbers
Us / Them |
Comments |
| Hit Outs (HO) | 23 / 48 | This surprised me. I thought Cameron did a pretty fair job against an opponent seen as the best in the competition. Not overly significant anyway, as usual. For significance see next. |
| Clearances | 39 / 29 | Includes: 14 / 6 Centre clearances and 25 / 23 stoppage clearances.
This is hugely significant. ‘Clearance to Inside 50 to Goal’ is the ideal progression. Here, our Midfield is dominating. See Next. |
| Inside 50s | 50 / 47 | This is also significant but only insofar as how close it was. Given the numbers are a comparison of the number of times the ball is in a position from where a score can result it usually flows from the Clearance numbers. The challenge? How effectively did each side use it? See below. |
| Disposal Efficiency (DE) | 71.8% / 69.1% | Not too different. Not particularly useful, anyway, across the whole game. |
| DE inside 50 | 44.0% / 51.1% | This is a critical difference identified above. This is where you see how effectively the teams use their entry into the 50 – and we recorded a deficit compared with them. With very similar Inside 50 numbers, their advantage here should have constituted a match-winning statistic. In essence both sides got the ball into the 50 with similar frequency but they used it far more effectively. |
| Players with DE of 80% | 7 / 7 | Not significant, compared to the week before. I thought the standard of ball-handling skills by both sides was very clean. |
| Contested Possessions (CP) | 105 / 128 | The measure of how hard each team is working – CP, Tackles and Turnovers combined. Not hugely different between the sides. |
| Turnovers | 65 / 57 | Really important – see above. |
| Marks (M) | 114 / 106 | Across game. |
| M inside 50 | 12 /13 | Impacts on DE inside 50 numbers. |
| Tackles (T) | 69 / 49 | Across game.
|
| T inside 50 | 15 / 9 | Also impacts on DE inside 50 numbers.
|
| 1 %’ers | 47 / 47 | Really important.
|
| Goals scored | 14 / 6 | All that matters.
|
| Free kicks | 15 / 13 | I thought the umps did a better job. The faster decisions for ‘caught with the ball’ were most welcome. |
The Game
The outcome of this game should not be seen as a simple comparison between the two final scores. When you look at the game statistics, some aspects become more confusing. Both teams, broadly, had the same Inside 50 numbers and Melbourne had a significant advantage over us in their DE Inside 50, the product of the two should have led them to achieve to a higher score than us. But Melbourne were seriously unlucky in their shots at goal. Melbourne, I have no doubt, will see the game as a collection of lost opportunities.
We, on the other hand, produced some outstanding shots on goal; we maximised the use of our opportunities. The attack out of the Backline forward, particularly through the centre, was breathtaking. We even moved the ball inside the 50 to a better shooting position. Well done.
Notable was the contribution, or lack thereof, by NickD. I think we’ve seen the reestablishment of close-tagging as a defensive measure on an individual. This has two outcomes. Firstly, we can use the same measure against our opponents, as required. And the second, we need to establish processes to defend our tagged player. Neither were evident at this game – scope for consideration.
From a Pies’ supporter’s perspective this was an enjoyable game to watch – we avoided having to cope with the massive stress of a close game. Many thanks, all.
The result: The Pies are now sitting 6th on the Ladder outside the Top 4 by one Win, plus percentage. In fact my suggested outcome of both the R12 outstanding games last week were absolutely wrong – Freo beat Melbourne and the GC beat Essendon. We need to improve our percentage, which with a Win could push us past Geelong and Carlton into 3rd place. Keep an eye on both Hawthorn and WB in the second half of the season. Both teams are playing good football.
Best: The AFL website identifies the following as Best – Crisp, Josh D, Maynard, Howe, Noble and Krueger. Don’t disagree their inclusions but would have supported the inclusion of Cameron, who was tireless, and maybe Sidebottom – what a great mark, but it’d be better to stop laughing when you kick it out of bounds on the full, though all of the TV repeats show the mark; not the kick that followed.
Injuries: Nick D went off “as a precaution” late in the game, but it is not considered critical though an extra week off might be useful. I would not be too surprised to see a few extra get, basically, three weeks off between games. See below. See comments on Petracca’s injury below.
Crowd – 84,659. A bit disappointing given it was between two of the oldest established and largest supported Clubs.
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Round 14
Sunday, 16 June 2024 North Melbourne versus Collingwood at Marvel Stadium; bounce at 1.00pm.
North Melbourne are sitting on the bottom of the ladder based on their 1 Win and 11 Losses, giving them 4 Points, and a percentage of 58.6%. We are sitting 6th, with 32 Points from 7 Wins, 4 Losses and 2 Draws for a 108.0% percentage.
Current betting is $1.10 to $7.00; we are favourites.
Them
Well, North are coming into our game off their first Win of the season. Historically, as a Pies’ supporter, my memory takes me back to the drawn Grand Final in 1977, subsequently lost by the Pies a week later. They were pretty competitive winning the Flag in 1975 before that. Then there’s a bit of a gap in North’s performance until their Premiership Win against Sydney in 1996, followed by their loss to Adelaide a couple of years later.
More recently, it’s a long way back to their participation in the Finals: 2012 – Lost to WCE by 96 Points in FW1, 2014 – Lost to Sydney in Preliminary Final by 71 Points, 2014 finished 6th, 2015 finished 8th beaten by WCE by 25 Points in the Preliminary Final, 2016 finished 8th beaten by Adelaide by 21 Points in the FW1 game. Last year, after five Rounds, they were sitting 5th on the Ladder, but their Round 1 and 2 games against the WCE and Freo, respectively, were by 5 Points and 1 Point and, clearly, could have gone either way. Their only additional Win that year was in Round 24 against the GC. They finished last year above the WCE purely on percentage.
There was a fair amount of discussion in the past focussed on North moving to Tasmania, now somewhat irrelevant, but (and it’s always hard to keep a good man down) Mr McGuire has tabled an idea based on North moving to Broadmeadows with a serious focus on the north of Melbourne. We’ll see what happens.
So, they then changed the coach, several times – Brad Scott to Noble to Adams to Clarkson to Ratten and back to Clarkson, following his mental health break. And if you thought Collingwood’s coach changeover was less than ideal, North’s was just awful. We took a bit of an interest because our Noble’s dad was in the mix. So how has their potential changed? Not much. Their recent Win was hardly comprehensive. The Eagles scored six unanswered goals in Q4 that took them to the lead with only minutes left. North put on two goals to get their Win, but it was a close result, though it’d be only fair to acknowledge North established the substantial advantage over the first three Quarters. Both teams tried hard but their skills and teamwork, when compared to ours, let them down.
Once again, we see a team focussed on their Midfield, shown by the locations of the Players to watch, listed below. It’s notable that Monkhorst is North’s part-time ruck coach.
Injuries. They are also suffering a number of injuries but, apart from McKercher, not hugely significant.
Players to watch:
- Davies-Uniacke – Centre;
- Xerri – Ruck;
- Powell – Rover;
- Simpkin – Co-Captain, also Rover, acknowledged as instrumental in North’s performance last week;
- Larkey – CHF; and
- McKercher – also roving But probably missing due to a foot injury.
Also keep an eye on Stephenson, sitting at HF, moved on from the Pies three seasons ago. He won the Rising Star award for 2018, selected also in the 22Under22 team that year, and in 2021.
Us
Nothing needs to change from last week except some further changes to give some individuals a more significant break:
- Team? Replace a few players who could use a rest, unfortunately for the VFL side: Jiath to replace Quaynor, Bytel to replace Hill, Eyre to replace Moore, Allan (or DeMattia) to replace NickD and Smit, potentially to replace another (not to replace Cameron, but to share the load and let Cameron be a forward target). That is a large number of replacements, but it is the coach who emphasised the broadest understanding of how the team plays. Who to replace? Your thoughts?
- Application? Possession of the ball lets you win the match – lose possession and you are fighting backwards. No change.
- Game Plan? No change to the current plan. Work on kick-in plan. Work on a Plan that runs for four Quarters. Work on coordination of the Forward line and the Backline. Avoid disrupting the Backline to ease the burden on the Forwards. Put Frampton back and leave Howe there. Continue to better arrange and coordinate delivery into and across the 50 – plans. Speed up the movement out of the Backline – establish plans to execute this.
- Be happy? Much improved. But remember, if a teammate is lying on the ground after an incident, he should be your first priority; not the executor. Then, after you’ve checked, you can get into the guilty bastard who did the deed.
Necessary Actions?
- Close attention to their Midfield; Win the Midfield battle – use the measures of Clearances and Inside 50s to assess; and
- Enjoy the Win.
TV. No free to air coverage; but otherwise on Kayo.
Weather. Shut the roof, if required.
My prediction. Collingwood to Win by 47 Points.
BOG – J. Daicos with 36 Disposals, 13 Clearances and 2 goals.
Harrison scores 5 goals.
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The Future
- Round 15. Bye.
- Round 16. Saturday, 29 June versus the Gold Coast Suns at the GC; bounce at 4.35pm. Broadcast TBA.
Other
- VFL. Remember the VFL side making the Finals is important because it maintains the ability to have AFL players returning from injury, etc, to get some game time after the VFL H&A season ends (Round 21, 18 August) flowing into the Finals. After a pretty disappointing 52 Point Loss to the Casey Demons last weekend, the VFL side, with still 10 games to go, is reasonably placed to make the Top10 into the Finals. They are sitting three games outside the Top 10 but have a couple of games they could expect to be highly competitive. Next in Round 13 is Sunday, 16 June at the AIA Centre against North (19th on the Ladder versus their 13th); bounce at 11.05am. Round 14 on Saturday, 29 June is versus Essendon (our 19th versus their 17th) at Windy Hill; bounce at 1.05pm. Anyone attending? Briefs please? Go Boys.
- VFLW. The ladies are actually better placed to move up from their current 9th place into the Top 6 Finals. They demolished the Casey Demons last weekend, and are sitting one Win outside the Six. Their next two games are critical – Next: Sunday, 16 June versus Darebin Falcons (12th on Ladder) at the Genis Steel Oval in Preston ; bounce at 11.05am. Their final H&A game is against Williamstown (sitting at the top of the Ladder and should provide a fantastic opportunity to bolt into the Finals) at Victoria Park on Saturday, 22 June; bounce at 11.00am. Go Girls.
- Games. Remember for those who can’t get to the VFL / VFLW games, you can watch them live at www.afl.com.au/stream-your-team?utm_source=aflcomau&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=state_league_streaming.
- Is there a Doctor handy? Now I know at least one of our addressees is a Medical Doctor, so I have a question (or two). With Petracca suffering four broken ribs, a punctured lung and a lacerated spleen, should the Melbourne Club Doctor have stepped in even if all he could see were “bruised ribs”? I am reminded of the different approaches of different sports – Did you know you can be disqualified 100 metres from the marathon finish at the Olympics if the match official sees you are virtually exhausted? Did Sam Burgess play virtually a whole game, and be awarded Best on Ground, with a fractured eye socket in South’s Rugby League GF a few years back, with the Club Doctor’s sanction? Whose decision is it? Not the player, I hope? See Damo’s comments at www.afl.com.au/news/1149900/barrett-melbourne-demons-needed-to-save-battered-superstar-christian-petracca-from-himself. I don’t disagree.
Ground Reports? Now I’m not sure who went to the last game. Is anyone going to the NM game? I’d like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar? More please.
Always believe. Go Pies.
Cam
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I must say that there is an extraordinary level of arrogance and hubris here regarding resting players for this week’s game vs North Melbourne. Why not rest the entire team and just play your VFL squad?