Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life: Round 12 Review / Round 13 Preview

True Believers, g’day to all.

 

A reminder to us all. The Season is not even half over, and there is a long way to go. Putting together a period of no Losses for 8 weeks was quite extraordinary given our 3/0 start, but was always going to end eventually; which has just happened. As our coach is fond of saying, our objective is to gather sufficient Wins to get into the Finals. We are well on the way to achieving that. The team’s performance, missing the number of key team-members, against a very credible Finals’ competitor, was outstanding. More on this below. Don’t be depressed.

 

My thanks for those other views, particularly relating to the umpiring. Obviously, our displeasure with the “holding the ball / disposal” offence was hardly unique, and we have seen the AFL take action, already, with speedier umpire action relating to this. Our coach highlighted the need that the reward for a tackle needed to be there for the tackler. This appears to have changed.

 

Go Pies.

 

 

Round 12

 

Collingwood 12.10.82 were defeated by Western Bulldogs 15.10.100.

 

Scoring shots 22 (us) / 25 (them).

 

Go Pies.

 

Match Report. www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/5995. Have a look at the Match Timeline here to understand just how the game evolved, particularly their (and our) Q1 and Q4.

 

Coach’s interview. www.afl.com.au/video/1141734/full-post-match-r12-magpies?videoId=1141734&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1717163059001&references=AFL_MATCH:5995. This is worth watching / listening to. He identified the failure to exploit the play advantage we held in Q1, but also acknowledged “the game got away from us” in Q4, noting the Clearance and Inside 50 numbers. He sought to identify a 15-minute period in Q4 as critical. My view is that it went a bit longer – close to the whole Q. He did, however, very clearly note the need to be able to dominate a game for four full Quarters. And he did state, on questioning, that Bontempelli would look good in a Collingwood jumper. I love his optimism.

 

Goals:

 

• Q1      5 (us) / 3 (them) – we established a pretty solid lead (4 goals to 1) by the mid-point of the Quarter, but we let them in resulting in only a 17 Point lead – it was a lost opportunity and could have been much more;
• Q2      3 / 5 – they reciprocated scoring the first four goals of the Quarter. We then scored the next three resulting in a 3 Point lead at Half Time;
• Q3      4 / 2 – more work by us resulted in two pairs of goals surrounding a pair of theirs mid-Quarter. We took a 12-Point lead at the final change; and
• Q4      0 / 5 – they played “possessed” resulting in the extraordinary scoring mis-match, totalling…
• Total:   12 / 15.

 

Numbers (some statistics taken, with comments). The numbers should be treated with some caution because they are a record across the whole game. In this game we dominated in Q1 and Q3; they certainly did Q2 and Q4. However, with some comments, they are interesting:

 

Statistic	Numbers Us / Them	Comments
Disposals	327 / 369	They dominated Disposals and Marks, below, indicating a preparedness to play a “keep’ens off” style of game.
Hit Outs (HO)	59 / 53	Not significant, as usual.
Clearances	38 / 55	Includes: 13 / 14 Centre clearances and 25 / 41 stoppage clearances. This is significant. In Q4, we could hardly get our hands on the ball, meaning that the flow-on of Inside 50 and goals scored were meaningless. ‘Clearance to Inside 50 to Goal’ is the ideal progression. Here, the Midfield is dominating. See Next.
Inside 50s	41 / 64	This is even more disproportional than the Clearances. Given the numbers are a comparison of the number of times the ball is in a position from where a score can result it tends to flow from the Clearance numbers. The challenge? How effectively did each side use it? See below.
Disposal Efficiency (DE)	61.5% / 72.4%	Not too different. Not particularly useful, anyway, across the whole game.
DE inside 50	56.1% / 46.9%	This is the critical difference identified above. This is where you see how effectively the teams use their entry into the 50 – and we recorded a near 20% advantage over them. This was, potentially, a match-winning statistic. If each side got the ball into the 50 with similar frequency this would have been telling. but we used it far more effectively. From a statistical perspective, this advantage offsets the Inside 50 discrepancy, above.
Players with DE of 80%	1 / 10	Hugely significant. This was evident in watching the game. It seemed that WB players could do no wrong though the number of times we passed the ball directly to an opponent was huge.
Contested Possessions (CP)	145 / 139	The measure of how hard each team is working – CP, UCP, Tackles and Turnovers combined. Not hugely different between the sides.
Uncontested Possessions (UCP)	174 / 221	See above.
Turnovers	56 / 66	Really important – see above.
Marks (M)	84 / 95	Across game.
M inside 50	13 / 8	Impacts on DE inside 50 numbers.
Tackles (T)	78 / 54	Across game.
T inside 50	7 / 11	Also impacts on DE inside 50 numbers.
1 %’ers	39 / 41	Really important.
Goals scored	12 / 15	All that matters.
Free kicks	21 / 22	It was the multitude and locations of the 50m penalties frequently giving ‘automatic’ goals that were of such consequence. If anyone can explain to me the ‘double 50m penalty’ I would appreciate it? The Frees’ numbers do not address this adequately.

 

 

The Game

 

The two teams played well for periods; neither took control for the whole game. Collingwood were dominant in Q1 except for the failure to record the score advantage on the scoreboard. Nick D and Crisp lead the way from the Centre with Nick establishing a Clearance record for the Club. The WB responded in Q2 with Bontempelli and Treloar instrumental in reducing the lead to near zero. Collingwood responded in kind reestablishing a healthy, 12 Point lead at the final change. In Q4, Collingwood could barely get hold of the ball, leading simply to a failure to score (except for 1 Behind). For the WB, the Bont continued his fantastic leadership with a rejuvenated Darcy dominating every aspect of the game in that Quarter (I hope Darcy enjoys his couple of weeks off given his very ordinary tackle on Maynard). Watching, you kept hoping that the Pies would turn it around and score the next goal (or couple of goals) but it didn’t happen. We were beaten by a better side at that stage though if we’d taken advantage of the opportunities in Q1 things might have been different. An interesting observation relating to momentum might apply – the turnover free imposed by the umpire for a failure to return the ball directly to him was at a critical time in the period of WB dominance, their momentum, which was because of that not challenged.

 

The Disposal Efficiency numbers, particularly the number team players with a DE rating of 80% or higher is significant. For periods, particularly Q4, it seemed we were kicking the ball out of the Backline without any particular targets. It seemed to me that the DE across the game favoured the WB – we seemed way too often to give possession away through poorly directed kicks or handpasses. Bontempelli was magnificent throughout the game. WB individuals had extraordinarily high DE. Treloar was pretty useful during those periods when the WB dominated. And Darcy was incredible during Q4.

 

In broad terms when Collingwood ran the ball through the Centre using short handpasses, the passages of play were breathtaking; all we have always hoped to see in our great game. They also used the boundary more than I’ve seen for a while.

 

The result: The Pies are now sitting 8^th on the Ladder though this might change as this weekend’s games evolve but still outside the Top 4 by one Win, plus percentage. I think that Freo might jump over us if they beat Melbourne and/or the GC could also push us down if they beat Essendon. Both results are unlikely, though the Freo game is in Alice Springs and the Essendon game is far north (Current – Freo – 4.1.25 are leading Melbourne 2.1.13 in Q1. Let me correct that, while I’ve been having lunch Q3 – Freo 14.6.90 are leading Melbourne 4.3.27 – expect a Freo Win and our move to 9^th place.)). Both teams have better percentages than do we.

 

Best: The AFL website identifies the following as Best – Nick D, Crisp, Josh D, Schultz and Sullivan. Don’t disagreetheir inclusions but would have supported the inclusion of three others noting that ‘the numbers’ don’t always give the full story, so selectively – Sidebottom – 21 Disposals@ 66.7%DE, 566 metres gained and 1 1%’er; Maynard – 19 d @ 68.4%DE, 562 mG, 6 Intercept Possessions, 4 Score Involvements and 3 1%’ers; and Moore – 14 d @ 78.6%DE, 274 mG, 8 IP, 4 SI and 13 1%’ers. A pretty good day at the office for each of them? Watching the game, it was eye-opening how frequently Moore was in the right place at the right time. It is, as the coach frequently states, about ‘moments’. Just about everyone had their moment.

 

Injuries: No further injuries have been identified. My view: I was surprised Maynard passed his concussion test; wouldn’t be at all surprised if this changes.

 

Crowd – 43,298. A bit disappointing although remember it was at Marvel.

 

 

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Round 13

 

Monday, 10^th June – Collingwood versus Melbourne at the MCG on the King’s Birthday holiday; bounce at 3.20pm.

 

Melbourne are sitting 9^th on the Ladder based on their 7 Wins and 5 Losses, giving them 28 Points, and a percentage of 104.3%. They are immediately below us on the Ladder where we are sitting 8^th, also with 28 Points from 6 Wins, 4 Losses and 2 Draws for a 104.6% percentage.

 

Current betting is not yet displayed.

 

 

Them

 

Well, if you take their performance against Freo, happening right now, they should represent no challenge to us at all. But, of course, we know that will not be the case, ever.

 

Melbourne’s performance this season has been pretty random. Of their five Losses, only one could have been a Win – Round 9 – Loss to Carlton by one Point at the MCG. A change there would not have made a substantial difference regarding the credibility of the team. More significant are some more substantial Losses – Round 10 Loss to WCE by 35 Points and todays (inevitable) Loss to Freo. But they have on occasion produced substantial Wins – Round 7 Win over Richmond by 43 Points, Round 11 Win over Geelong by 8 and Round 11 Win over St Kilda by 38 Points. Their performance against Freo is now complete – they Lost by 92 Points. Not sure what that does to the confidence next week, but it will mean something.

 

So, Melbourne’s performance is hardly a certain thing, but they cannot be seen as ‘easy-beats’. And, of course, they are sitting one position below us on the Ladder.

 

Once again, we see a team focussed on their Midfield shown by the numbers of players to watch, listed below.

 

Injuries. They are also suffering a number of injuries. There is some talk that Gawn is not 100%. I’ve not seen this from any reputable source, but it may be significant.

 

Players to watch:

 

• Petracca – Centre;
• Gawn – Ruck;
• Oliver – Rover;
• May – FB; and
• Viney – HF.

 

Us

 

Nothing needs to change from last week except further changes to account for the losses:

 

• Team? Replace a couple of players who didn’t perform last week – I’d like to see Noble back in, Steene given an opportunity and De Mattia and Carmichael added to the playing list – Who to replace?Your thoughts?
• Application? Possession of the ball lets you win the match – lose possession and you are fighting backwards. No change.
• Game Plan? No change to the current plan. Work on kick-in plan. Work on a Plan that runs for four Quarters. Work on coordination of the Forward line and the Backline. Avoid disrupting the Backline to ease the burden on the Forwards. What do I mean? Leave Howe and Frampton in the Backline. Better arrange and coordinate delivery into and across the 50 – plans. Speed up the movement out of the Backline – establish plans to execute this.
• Be happy? Much improved. But remember, if a teammate is lying on the ground after an incident, he should be your first priority. Then, after you’ve checked, you can get into the guilty bastard who did the deed.

 

Necessary Actions?

 

• Close attention to their Midfield; Win the Midfield battle – use the measures of Clearances and Inside 50s to assess; and
• Enjoy the Win.

 

1. TV.      Free to air coverage on 7mate; and

            Other on Kayo.

 

Weather. Clear and sunny after days of the same. Plastic soled boots OK.

 

My prediction.          Collingwood to Win by 19 Points.

 

                                    BOG – J. Daicos with 32 Disposals and 13 Clearances.

                                    Harrison scores 5 goals.

—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————

 

Other

 

• VFL. The importance of the VFL side making the Finals is the ability to have AFL players returning from injury, etc to get some game time. Following a pretty substantial trouncing by Footscray Bulldogs the VFL side onSunday, 9^th June is versus Casey Demons at Casey Fields; bounce at 2.05pm. This game is between 16^th and 17^th places on the Ladder so could be a good game. Remember the need to get into the Top 10, though there is time. Note that this game will follow the VFLW game. Catch both. Reports please?

 

• VFLW. Also not a great result this week with a close Loss to Southern Saints. We are now sitting 10^th needing to be Top 6 to play Finals, but we are running out of time (three more H&A games). Next is R12. Sunday, 9^th June – Casey Demons versus Collingwood at Casey Fields; bounce 11.05am. 8^th versus 10^th – should be a good game. Note that this game immediately precedes the VFL game. Catch both.

 

• Games. Remember for those who can’t get to the VFL / VFLW games, you can watch them live atwww.afl.com.au/stream-your-team?utm_source=aflcomau&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=state_league_streaming.

 

Ground Reports? Now I’m not sure who went to the last game. Is anyone going to the KB game? I’d like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar?  More please.

 

Always believe. Go Pies.

 

Cam

 

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