Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life: Preliminary Final Review / Grand Final Preview

 

G’day True Believers. Greetings to all.

 

I have to admit during the Q2 to considering how I would word my ‘final’ email along the lines of “It’s been fun. See you next year.” But, we fought back and turned around the substantial deficit 17 Points by early Q3). Well done. And following that, my pessimism was equally unfounded in the expectation that it was going to be a Collingwood / Carlton GF. How did Brisbane turn around a five-goal deficit late in Q1? Of course, none of that matters, now.

 

We will participate in the biggest game of the year – the 2023 Grannie.

 

Go Pies.

 

1^st Preliminary Final

 

Collingwood 8.10.58 defeated GWS 8.9.57

 

Goals scored by Q:

 

• Q1       2 (us) / 0 (them). We took a 10 Point lead into the first change, though scored our 2 goals inside the first 6 minutes. Thereafter we dominated on the field, not on the scoreboard;
• Q2       0 / 4. GWS’s domination without being a total destruction leading to a HT deficit of 7 Points. You always felt, in spite of the absence of goals scored, that we were absorbing their attack and that we were not ‘out of the game’;
• Q3       5 / 2. By mid Q3, we had gone 62 minutes without a Goal scored. GWS had established a 17 Point lead by early Q3. Then, the come back leading to a final change lead of 4 Points;
• Q4       1 / 2. We played it out – interesting in greater detail – 10 of the first 12 Inside 50s in Q4 were won by us; our Defence conceded one score from the 5 GWS Inside 50s. Again we were absorbing their attack – holding onto the 1 Point margin for the final 6 minutes and 18 seconds; and
• Total    8 / 8. The stoppage contest was ultimately the difference between the two sides, with the Magpies winning 18 more clearances than the Giants (ABC website). And, we Won by the smallest of margins.

 

Match Report www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/5881#match-report.

 

Coach’s Interview – www.afl.com.au/video/1038257/full-post-match-pf-magpies?videoId=1038257&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1695390228001&references=AFL_MATCH:5881. Worth watching / listening. The emphasis on the fans, “bringing them along” and the love for the Magpie Army (that’s all of us, if you were in any doubt) is worth hearing. And what a crowd – 97, 665. Anyone want to guess the divide in support? Importantly, in responding to questions, he admitted the team trained for the final two-minutes of close games. The message at HT? “Greater chaos and speed. Be brave.”

 

A few comments from inside the rooms – www.collingwoodfc.com.au/video/1437324/from-the-rooms-preliminary-final?videoId=1437324&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1695388938001.  Input from Elliott, Murphy, Mitchell, McCreery, Hoskin-Elliott, Josh Daicos, Crisp and Ginnivan. Worth watching – get a feel from the players, particularly confronting the future.

 

The Prelim Final numbers?

 

Measure	Statistics	Remarks
Disposals	356 / 377	As I’ve said previously, I usually don’t usually rate this number. What it can show, even with similar numbers, is the difference in the style of play. For example they dominated Handballs (133 / 154) whereas we normally do and we tended to kick and mark (see below).
Hit Outs	45 / 28	This number surprised me though I did think Cox did well. Briggs was pretty clearly not up to the task.
Clearances	44 / 26	This statistic was also a bit of a surprise. It shows that our Midfield substantially Won the Midfield battle. Well done. De Goey was magnificent. That said, Pies’ Clearance numbers dominated – De Gory – 13, Sidebottom – 7, N.Daicos – 6, then GWS’s first – Green – 6.
from Centre	11 / 8
from Stoppages	33 / 18
Inside 50s	52 / 48	Absolutely critical. This, usually, reflects a match-winning comparison but here was substantially different to the Clearance comparison. Perhaps, our use of drive out of the Backline, rather than a reliance on drive out of the Centre was an influence.
Goals scored	8 / 8	Usually follows on from Inside 50s and DE Inside 50.
Scoring Shots	18 / 17	The ratio of Scoring Shots matches the Goals scored broad equivalence.
Disposal Efficiency	69.9% / 66.8%	Not significant. Next is critical.
DE Inside 50	38.5% / 43.8%	This is a significant difference – 5.3% difference over 40’ish% is a 12% overall margin. The result? We got the ball into the 50 more frequently than them, but they used it more effectively when they did. The combination of the two statistics leads to our near equivalence and match-winning score result.
Marks	98 / 89	Relates to “keep’ens off” attitude of domination through small kicks (UCP) and marks at various times trying to slow the game down. Not a huge difference.
Marks Inside 50	8 / 11	Significant to them.
Tackles Inside 50	8 / 7	Marginally significant to us.
Players with DE > 80 %	4 / 8	A surprise, but I’m not sure why.
Tackles	68 / 60	Important. Combined, this would indicate the pressure inflicted by each team was pretty similar across the game. However, as you watched it, it became clear that domination was for specific periods – we dominated for part of Q1 and most of Q3, they dominated for periods in Q2 and some of Q3. Most of the balance was a clear even competition.
Contested Possessions	140 / 154
1 %’ers	57 / 55
Uncontested Possessions	208 / 211	Relates to “keep’ens off” attitude to game.
Free Kicks	12 / 12	Whatever. I think we suffered three 50 metre penalties, each of which was a certain goal. In general, others are also critical. Go to www.msn.com/en-au/sport/other/afl-great-unloads-on-pathetic-prelim-umpiring/ar-AA1h8LJt?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=f6f052b0d90545b2ba8571cf816fa529&ei=8
·

 

Best: The AFL website identifies our Best as De Goey, Crisp, Pendles, Quaynor, N.Daicos and Cox. Don’t disagree with any of the inclusions but would have added Sidebottom (24 Disposals, albeit @ 58.3% DE, 4 Tackles, 7 Clearances and 537 metres Gained) and Maynard (18 D @ 100% DE, 5 T, 0 Cl and 405 mG). See also a comparison between Greene and Maynard, next below.

 

Injury? McStay – expect to miss GF.

 

Specials. A comparison, though not, of course, an unrestricted ‘hard tag’ (with others coming and going) but illustrative only:

 

• Greene: 2 goals, 17 D @ 58.8% DE, 2 Marks, 1 T, 2 Clearances, 1 Goal Assist and 380 mG; and
• Maynard: 0 goals, 18 D @ 100% DE, 5 M, 5 T, 0 Cl, 0 GA and 405 mG.

 

Greene made the GWS Best list. In my view Maynard should have made ours.

 

As a mark of the true professional, somewhat maligned in the media (including me over the umpire shoulder-charge incident) a look at their behaviour is worthwhile. They bumped fists before the opening bounce and in an incident (see game replay with 17.21 time to go in Q1) after a competition on the ground blown up by the umpire, Maynard simply helped Greene to his feet. Outstanding sportsmanship. Remember Ginnivan’s expectation of the same a while back?

 

But I did like the particular cheers for Maynard and Ginnivan when each first touched the ball.

 

Lessons?

 

• Our thanks to the Magpie Army there or away – supporters as well as Members. Their influence is quite extraordinary and is fairly acknowledged by the team.
• Great application throughout by all, particularly the final 6-minutes of the game. Well done by some of the more experienced players setting that up.
• Fabulous Midfield and Backline performance. I would still like to see Noble back in the Backline. Maybe if Howe moves Forward in place of McStay this makes some sense.
• Forwards were okay given the attention of competition-leading defenders. Still emphasise concurrent leading and passage of the ball inside the 50.
• Kick-ins still need work. Time is the issue here. We need to have worked out how/where the kick-in is going to go. It is, currently, too slow.
• Ginnivan makes things happen when he arrives. He attracts the ball. Consider his inclusion in the run-on side in place of Lipinski or, maybe, with Markov sub.
• What a performance by Pendlebury, hardly matching his age at all – rock solid in the Centre.

 

Your views on the game?

 

Next:

 

The 2023 Grand Final

 

Saturday, 30^th September at the MCG – Collingwood Magpies play  Brisbane; bounce at 2.30pm.

 

From the Ladder at the conclusion of R24, this game pits 1^st place (us) – with 18 Wins / 5 Losses and a percentage of 127.0% against 2^nd place (them) – with 17 Wins / 6 Losses and a percentage of 123.1%.

 

Current betting (Sportsbet @ 24 September 2023) – $1.75 (us to win) / $2.10 (them). Interesting numbers. We are favourites. Not sure that is actually warranted given our varied results towards the end of our season but Brisbane’s success focussed very much on the Gabba is a factor when considering their move to the G. More below.

 

Them:

 

Brisbane went through a dominant period, that many of us will very clearly remember because we were directly involved in it. Grand Final participation by Brisbane occurred in the following period, with the opposition and results identified:

 

• 2001 – Won against Essendon;
• 2002 – Won against Pies;
• 2003 – Won against Pies establishing the threepeat that seems to have spawned a number of AFL coaches, including our own. Which year did Bucks Win the BOG medal in the Losing side and stuffed it into his shorts pocket? and
• 2004 – Lost to PA.

Since then, they have been a bit quiet, though not uncompetitive. This season they have Won 17 and Lost 6. They have Won every home game this season. Their Losses have occurred at Marvel Stadium, Adelaide Oval, the Gold Coast and the MCG, their only game on the G this season and it was by 1 Point to Melbourne in R18. Their supporters at the G may include aged Fitzroy supporters who haven’t moved to the GC and Pies-haters, which are less than you might imagine. Everyone is coming to enjoy the style of footy our boys have been playing. And, of course, the allocation of seats to normal footy-supporting Club members is extraordinarily stupidly organised. It’s also why I consider the Prelims the best games for supporters.

 

Their Preliminary Final Win over Carlton was noteworthy. Carlton scored the first five goals establishing a Q1 lead of 5 goals to one, but Brisbane reversed the outcome. This is quite extraordinary from the perspective of both teams – Carlton letting it happen and Brisbane achieving it. I watched the game and consider neither team was particularly committed after Q1 (and in Q1 only Carlton). Brisbane looked pretty disinterested during the whole game. The standard, particularly the speed, of the passage of the ball was poor, as was its direction. ‘Kicking and hoping’ seemed to be the go. If we play to the standard we can, we should Win.

 

Game plan.

 

Watch their Midfield and the movement of the ball via the Wings.

 

Injuries. They have a pretty clear List. Questions exist over Gunston and Smith.

 

Players to watch:

 

(based on the three most recent games between Collingwood and Brisbane and their 2023 Finals performances):

 

• Neale – RR / Rover;
• Cameron – Wing / HF / FP;
• McInerney – Ruck;
• Dunkley – Centre / RR;
• Rayner – FP / BP;
• Zorko – Wing;
• Daniher – FF; and
• Hipwood – CHF / FP.

 

Also watch Coleman – Midfield who has performed well, more recently.

 

And, of course, keep an eye on Starcevich because of his Collingwood family connection.

 

Necessary Actions?

 

• Close attention to their Midfield – Neale, McInerney, Dunkley & Zorko. Potentially tag Neale – Maynard;
• Close attention to selected Forwards – Daniher, Hipwood & Charlie Cameron;
• Play down the corridor, avoiding the Wings;
• Kick to targets; and
• Spread our attack widely providing diverse opportunities.

 

Us:

 

Importance: Our objective is here.

 

Structure? To play the opposition team and their key players. So?

 

Out:     McStay – injury

            Lipinski

            Ginnivan (Sub)

            Markov

 

In:        Adams

Noble

Ginnvan

Markov (Sub)

 

Application? No change – Application for four full Quarters – never reduce the pressure. Hold the tackles. Establish and maintain control of the game (Contested Possessions/Tackles/1%’ers).

 

Game Plan? No change to the current plan:

 

• Continue to drive out of the Backline, as well as the Midfield;
• Dominate the Centre Clearances;
• Use varied entry to the 50 and be willing to move the ball to a better-placed goal scorer than delivering to packs;
• Crumb around packs, particularly in our defence; and
• Importantly, I’d like to see the kick-in progress routinely more smoothly out of the Backline – I think speed, planning and preparedness have a lot to do in achieving this. Sit down away from the field and work it out; then try it.

 

In particular:

 

• Nick D alternating with Crisp in the Midfield;
• Mitchell and Pendles alternating in the Centre role;
• Maynard to tag Neale (for a while, just for a bit of fun);
• Howe moves Forward to replace McStay, freeing up a place for Noble to return; and
• Emphasise Cox in Ruck; Cameron as a Forward target, alternating.

 

Injuries? McStay.

 

My Picks:

 

• Collingwood to Win by 17 Points. BOG De Goey – 33 Disposals, 6 Marks, 11 Clearances, 12 Goal Assists and 1 Goal.
• Ginnivan and Hill each get three; Mihocek gets 5 Goal Assists – very close to BOG.

 

Reporting? Reports please? From those who watch it on TV as well as those lucky enough to attend. C’mon, there’s a couple of Reports outstanding that I know of. If you were there, report pls?

 

Weather.  Clear and sunny, temperature between 22 (7.00pm) and 20 (10.00pm) deg C; no rain forecast in the week leading to the game. Plastic-soled boots OK.

 

TV: Channel 7.

 

Then? Next year. What about it? Which teams do you consider will be competitive?

 

Your thoughts?

 

Believe always. Go Pies.

 

Cam

 

 

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