True Believers, greetings to all.
Well, I went close with my game result prediction. And they did shut the AO crowd up, for a while.
So why am I not overly concerned? Well, in the last 6 weeks we’ve Lost five games, but only one of those is noteworthy. We didn’t turn up ready to play against Hawthorn. The coach apologised; I would have liked the players to apologise, but was satisfied with how they turned up to play yesterday. Each of the other games (excepting that with Brisbane at the G by 27 Points as significant) was for under a kick. These results really don’t matter, particularly given our successes set up earlier in the Season. So, forget them. Let the coaching staff identify where we can improve. Let the supporters understand that in the face of a very hostile crowd we Lost by a whole 3 Points against the current Premiership favourite.
Print off the current Ladder. Completing this Round, you’d expect Geelong to beat Sydney, even given the game is in Sydney, and the WB to add to their already impressive percentage against the Eagles. So go down the Top 9 and identify the Winners and Losers of R24 games – I think only two games jump out: Brisbane versus Hawthorn at the Gabba and the WB versus Freo at Marvel. Who do I think will pick up the Points? Hawthorn and WB. So, add the four Points; the only question, of course, relates to the percentages. My guess is that Brisbane may drop to 6th place on the Ladder, the WB up to 8th spot and Freo out. Don’t forget the GC have that extra game to be played. We are likely to move to 3rd or stay 4th depending on Hawthorn’s performance.
Who do you reckon as Premiership favourites? The teams that scare me most on our passage to the Premiership are WB and Hawthorn.
Another brief note just to focus on some statistics that don’t make a whole lot of sense.
Go Pies.
Round 23
Collingwood 8.8.56 were defeated by Adelaide 9.5.59. Scoring shots 16 / 14, a relatively minor difference.
- Match Report – www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/7161. Check then Timeline here.
- Coach’s Report – www.afl.com.au/video/1393126/we-didnt-quite-get-the-four-points-but-we-leave-here-not-with-our-tail-between-our-legs-mcrae?videoId=1393126&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1755350379001. Really worth watching / listening. Without seeking to make excuses, he noted the tight schedule of games – 3 games in 12 days and identified the impact of the conditions on team connectivity but seeing it certainly as a game that was there to be won. He reinforced that the team is heading in the right direction.
Goals:
Q1 5 (us) / 1 (them). A fabulous, domineering start. Margin at the first break + (positive) 25 Points;
Q2 0 / 5. A total reversal we appeared unable to check. Margin at HT – (negative) 5 Points;
Q3 1 / 1. Very even. Margin at final break -2 Points;
Q4 2 / 2. More of same shoot-out. In fact we Won the 2H by 2 Points, so technically we Won three Quarters (all by Q2); and
Total 8 / 9. Losing margin 3 Points.
Statistics. I’m only going to talk about a couple of key statistics:
- Disposals – 339 (us) / 341 (them). Broadly equivalent performance across the game; no comment;
- Clearances – 52 / 38. Reflects positively on the Midfield. It goes on to be reflected in the Inside 50 numbers;
- Inside 50s – 71 / 37. This domination should have then been reflected in scoring shots and scores;
- Disposal Efficiency (DE) inside 50s – 31.0% / 40.5%. The clear linkage between Inside 50 numbers and Disposal Efficiency, inside the 50, should be the basis of scoring differential. Clearly it wasn’t. Game-winning cause statistics;
- Marks – 76 / 83. Not too different overall though Marks inside 50 were 10 / 5 should have aided our scoring;
- Tackles – 85 / 63 generally, also noting tackles inside 50 – 32 / 6. Reflects our team’s application. Well done; and
- Free Kicks – 18 / 25. Once again it is the offences ‘missed’ that impacts on fairness. I happened to record some numbers by the Quarter – Q1 – 6 / 2; Q2 – 5 / 7; Q3 – 3 / 7 and Q4 – 4 / 9. They obviously got looked after pretty well in the 2H. Poor umpiring, particularly right at the end, where contrary to some commentators’ views it actually was significant. Some teams, including Collingwood, have shown the ability to Win a game in the last 60 seconds, or even after the siren. Most don’t, but some can.
It was a much better performance, especially give the challenging conditions – we were smiling. With a little good fortune, and ball bounce, we could have Won this by a substantial margin. Right now, that doesn’t matter; some aspects for future games are worth pursuing.
Best:
The AFL website identifies Collingwood’s Best as:
- NickD;
- Cameron;
- Pendles;
- Crisp; and
- Elliott.
Both Long and Sidey had good days, particularly recording well in Disposals, Clearances, Inside 50s and Metres Gained. And both Schultz and De Goey were notable in their Score Involvements.
The Coaches’ Votes not yet out.
Your thoughts?
Crowd: 54,283 in a ground with the stated capacity of 53,500. You work it out – they were certainly loud.
Result: This was a big improvement, but …
- I think we coordinated between players better however there were periods (like the whole of Q2 and periods in Q4) when we appeared unable to wrest control back. For these periods they were able to take control, establish how the game was to be applied, and then get on with doing that.
- Ball-handling, given the conditions, was pretty good by both teams.
- Their scoring is reflected in their massive advantage represented in Disposal Effectiveness in Inside 50s counteracted (obviously to a degree) by our massive dominance in Inside 50 numbers.
- We still badly need to put together a ‘Kick-in’ plan, both as a negative to stop their kick-ins and as a positive to facilitate ours.
- High kicks into the 50 to packs, that we seemed to revert to, is not the best avenue to the Forwards (or out of our Backline) even with Cox (if playing) or Cameron as targets. Much better avenues are lower, harder kicks to specific targets, moving in different directions. The speed of high kicks also allowed defenders to intercept or, at the least disrupt, the passage of the ball.
In summary, we Lost, but not comprehensively. I have little doubt that if (when) we meet again, particularly in better conditions, we can prevail.
Round 24
Friday, 22nd August Collingwood versus Melbourne at the MCG; bounce: 7.10pm.
This game is between us, placed 4th on the Ladder based on 15 Wins, 7 Losses and a percentage of 123.1%, against them, placed 14th based on 7 Wins, 15 Losses and a 93.4% percentage. Should be a doddle, right? Not necessarily
Betting? Nothing identified yet.
Them
Melbourne finished last season in 14th place on the Ladder based on 11 Wins, 12 Losses and a percentage of 98.5%. They have not improved this year.
But, once again, Ladder position is not an entirely accurate or useful means of assessing competition. We beat Melbourne in R13 in the annual King’s Birthday match by a single Point though well separated on the Ladder. We Won with 17 scoring shots against their 21. Importantly at that match our Best were JoshD, Howe, Sidey, Pendles and NickD; age plus Daicoses. I have included their Best at that game in my assessment of Players to Watch, below. Of relevance in their last five games they’ve Won massively against the Eagles, losing all the others. With the exception of their Loss to Hawthorn by 36 Points, the others against WB, St Kilda and Carlton were relatively close. So, they are not ‘easy-beats’ – treat with caution.
Players to watch:
- Gawn – Ruck;
- Oliver – RR;
- Pickett – FP;
- Petracca – Centre;
- May – FB;
- Viney – Rover / RR / HF;
- Rivers – BP / RR / Rover; and
- Fritsch – CHF.
Note the preponderance of Midfield positions. So, as always, win the Midfield battle, take control of the corridor and dominate the Inside 50 and Disposal Efficiency numbers.
Us:
Context? We have dropped to 4th place on the Ladder. As identified elsewhere, with Adelaide likely to stay in the top position it would be preferable to avoid the AO crowd (again) but honestly, facing Adelaide in a Qualifying Final, having been virtually dead-even, two weeks beforehand, would seem workable. Your thoughts?
Changes? We need our best team for this game again:
- Outs: Your suggestions?
- Ins: Cox, Hill and Howe. De Mattia (if there’s a Midfield need);
Your thoughts?
Game Plan – No changes of substance from past. A couple of points, as usual:
- Application. Nothing is more important. Totally demonstrated in our last game. And Attitude is King.
- Taggers. Tagging roles might be useful, including an occasional hard lock-down role on their Forwards / Midfield? And protecting our players? That should also be key.
- Midfield Management. Pendles guidance / on-field coaching to the collective Midfield remains critical.
- Passing. Accuracy of passes by foot and hand critical – critical.
- Drive. Drive out of the Backline is usually a key part of our game plan– much better in Adelaide. Kick-ins are a continuing issue – we need to have a plan that everyone knows.
- Kicking for Goal. This was much improved against Adelaide with a demonstrated willingness to pass the ball inside the 50. Elliott’s ability for the hard goal is laudable but note he wasted a couple of shots earlier. Their movement of the ball inside the 50 to give goal-kickers an easier shot is highlighted. Ball delivery needs to be to the best goal-kicking position. Importantly, scoring a Behind is a waste – for 1 Point you hand over ball-possession to the opposition. It’s not worth it – get the ball into a better posit
- Tackles. Still a failing with opponents spinning out of tackles or brushing off the tackler. This has been one of our strengths this season; we need to get it back. Love the multiple tacklers.
Our Aim? Be happy. Worth reinforcing – our team, yes, we are part of it, were incredibly dour during the OR game against GWS in Sydney; same against Hawthorn a week or so ago. Everyone, players and supporters, need to get the smile back.
Summary? We should Win this. The danger is our frequent approach to playing our opponent at their strength. This has to stop. We have to pursue the game to our standard regardless of who we are playing. So? Go for the Jugular. Seek to Win well (and take the stress pressure of we, long-suffering, Pies’ supporters).
Winning Selection. Collingwood to Win by 43 Points. BOG – NickD, again) with 41 touches, including 17 Clearances. Goal kickers include Mihocek, Elliott and Hill – 3 goals each.
TV: FTA coverage not yet out. Go to www.afl.com.au/broadcast-guide-premiership to monitor. Or go to Kayo or Fox Footy.
Weather: There is a chance of light rain on the day in Melbourne but dry in the week leading to the game. But, of course, it is Melbourne. Plastic boots okay.
Ground Reports? I hope some of you are going? Reports please (after or before)? I’d especially like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar?
Other:
- AFLW – OK, not a great start – R1 Loss to Carlton by 24 Points. Next – R2 – Saturday, 23 August Collingwood versus GWS at Victoria Park; bounce at 1.05pm. Good luck, ladies.
- VFL – We Lost our final H&A game against Port Melbourne by 8 Points. That means our Ladder position dropped to 7thmeaning we’ll have a play-off game to decide which team joins the Top 6 in the Final 8. Watch the AFL website for details.
- VFLW team – Terrific start, ladies. First two Finals’ games from 2ndplace on the Ladder – FW1: beating North by 13 Points (North placed on the top of the Ladder) and SF: beating BH Hawks by 25 Points (BH placed 3rd on the Ladder). Next – probably a Prelim Final. Watch the AFL website for details. Good luck.
- Anything else, everyone?
Next:
- Finals. Note there is a week off following the completion of R24. Finals Week 1 (FW1) starts
This is our year; still believe! Always believe; never, ever give up! Go Pies.
Cam
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