Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life 2025: Round 16 Review / Round 17 Preview

G’day all. True Believers, everyone (well, with a couple of exceptions amongst the addressees, mostly for family connection reasons).

 

This one’s a bit late because of travel commitments. Happy Birthday, Neil, again.

 

Once again, like last week, I didn’t enjoy that. Well, to be honest, I enjoyed the 2^nd Half, but for a 1^st versus 18^th place on the Ladder the 1^st Half was not convincing. I think we need to consider our play against other Top Eight teams rather than the rest. Next week, against the Blues, will, as always, be telling.

 

Go Pies.

 

Round 16

Collingwood 13.10.88 defeated West Coast 8.11.59

 

Scoring shots: 23 (us) / 19 (them). Given I tend to rate the same number of Goals scored to Behinds scored, that reflects pretty good kicking by us, but fairly poor by them.

 

Match Report – www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/7090.

 

Coach’s comments – www.afl.com.au/video/1353029/mcrae-post-match-r16-we-came-here-for-four-points-we-didnt-come-here-for-style-points?videoId=1353029&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1751116414001. Interesting focus, particularly praise for the effectiveness of the Eagles especially in the 1^st Half and his acknowledgement that the team had a job to do, which they did, and work to do for the future. He clearly addressed, concerning next week, his transition from being ‘best mate of a fellow team member’ to ‘arch-rival’ in coaching in the Carlton Collingwood game. Worth watching.

 

Goals scored:

Q1       1 (us) / 2 (them). Up and down throughout the Quarter. Margin at QT – (negative) 9Points;

Q2       4 / 4. Added four goals early in the Quarter; they responded with four mid-Quarter.Margin at HT – 8 Points;

Q3       5 / 2. Again added four goals early in the Quarter; they responded with two. Margin at the Final break + (positive) 10 Points;

Q4       3 / 0. With dominance, spread three goals across the Quarter without response; and

Total    13 / 8. Winning with a margin of 29 Points. It could have been much greater.

 

Statistics

Some numbers to seek to identify where there was a substantial difference and how this impacted on the game:

 

Statistic	Numbers (us / them)	Comment
Hit Outs (HO)	43 / 43	A particularly not-useful number decided by whichever ruck touches the ball first. A better assessment is ‘HO to advantage’, which I don’t have. And a much, much better measure is under Clearances, below. This number surprised me – close to even.
Clearances	44 / 32	Our domination here should have been a reflection of the HO equivalence. It wasn’t. You’d credit our Midfield as winning the Midfield Battle, both in the Centre and at stoppages around the ground: Centre clearance – 14 / 8; and Stoppage clearance – 30 / 24. This is a much better measure than the HO and should have indicated an advantage to us in the next steps – Inside 50s and, ultimately, our scoring. Broadly speaking, this is what happened.
Inside 50s	55 / 50	Next? Well; Clearance advantage reflecting an Inside 50 advantage, which it was, then a reflection of a scoring advantage.
DE Inside 50	50.9% / 42.0%	This is a really extraordinary result – here the numbers reflect a significant team advantage by us getting the ball into a scoring position. This reflects hugely on both our Forwards using the ball effectively and our Backs denying the Eagles the same. This represents the game-Winning achievement.
Free Kicks	17 / 18	The numbers here confirmed my observation – pretty even throughout, though, as always I thought we missed multiple unawarded Frees. Standard comment (same each week): What I saw that was critical was the failure to penalise, what I thought were obvious, incidents. I reinforce my suggestion that the umpires be invited to watch their decisions and answer “why?”? Inconsistencies are still widespread – incorrect disposal, caught with the ball, in the back, etc.
Contested Possession (CP)	136 / 119	Both teams were successful for periods. I like it when the ball is locked in our attacking half.
Uncontested Possession (UCP)	210 / 244
Marks	97 / 86	Marks inside 50 – 13 / 7; and Contested marks – 16 / 8. Our domination of the Marks, particularly inside 50, is the most important of these comparisons and contributed positively to our scoring.
Tackles	74 / 63	Tackles inside 50 – 11 / 14. The numbers of Tackles inside 50 surprised me. While I have no compunction in recognising that both sides worked hard this overall statistic gives this emphasis pretty clearly to our boys. It reflected my view of the game, even though for much of the game it was pretty even. The multiple tacklers were impressive, again.
1%’ers	44 / 32	Spoils and defensive actions. I haven’t gone back to add up the numbers but the general equivalence supports the contention that both sides were working hard.

 

Best:

The AFL website identifies Collingwood’s Best as:

 

• Pendles,
• JoshD,
• NickD,
• Cameron,
• Mihocek, and
• Howe.

 

It’s interesting that the Coaches’ Votes gave the following:

 

• NickD – 6 points;
• Perryman – 5;
• Pendles – 5;
• Cameron – 2; and
• Howe – 2.

 

I’d support the combination of the two selections, not necessarily either order as listed.

 

Your thoughts?

 

Crowd:      38, 126. This is where the home game use of Marvel financial argument breaks down. I would not be surprised to see attendance at this game at the MCG over 65,000, the majority, of course, Pies fanatics.

 

Result: A great game that reflected really well on the Eagles for the first Half, then we progressively took control. By the last Quarter we dominated. Even when under a deficit, the game never got away from us, the game reflected our ability to stabilise a situation and then reestablish our dominance. The Eagles are an improving side but won’t make the Finals. They can be expected to defeat a number of teams placed higher than them on the Ladder. Other noticeable aspects relating to the game include:

 

• The team-performance, mentioned above. Everyone was involved, again;

• Our advantage in Clearance numbers and Inside 50s, fairly easily reflecting the scoring differential based on our Disposal Effectiveness advantage. We had a greater presence Inside 50 and used the ball more effectively once we had it there;

• We broadly Won the Battle of the Midfield both in the Centre and more broadly at stoppages around the ground. More importantly, relating to this, the performance by our Backline and our Forwards contributing to this was quite extraordinary; and

• I thought the umpiring was again average, though the umpire protection to players, particularly tagged players, was improved.

 

In summary, the Pies Won because we ultimately established control of the game, that we ultimately exploited, Won by our dominant Forwards and Backs. The Margin could have been much larger.

 

Round 17

Friday, 4^th July – Carlton versus Collingwood at the MCG; bounce at 7.20pm.

 

This game is between 1^st place, us, on the Ladder and them in 11^th place. It would also ordinarily be seen as an ‘easy-Win’ but, the balance of teams across the competition this year means no game can be taken for granted and every Carlton / Collingwood game rises beyond expectations. Expect nothing different.

 

Betting? Needless to say, again we are favourites: $1.22 (Win by us) / $4.25 (Win by them). A touch better than last week’s numbers involving the WCE, however did you note the wager numbers change during that game. By HT there had been significant changes made.

 

Them

The Blues, under Voss, finished 2024 in 8^th place on the Ladder. This was in spite of Losing four of their last five games in the competition, including to us in Round 21, by 3 Points. Their season finished smartly after FW1 with a Loss to Brisbane at the Gabba. It was expected that they would improve this year. They clearly haven’t.

 

The comparison is between us in 1^st place on the Ladder with 13 Wins and 2 Losses with a 135.8% percentage is against 11^th place with 6 Wins and 9 Losses with a 100.4% percentage. Their Wins have bee spread through the season:

 

• A pretty awful start with four Losses from four (remember any other team doing that?) including their last game in Round 4, Won by us by 17 Points;
• Three successive Wins against WCE, NM and, surprisingly, Geelong;
• One Win against St Kilda out of then next four games. Unsurprising Losses to Adelaide, Sydney (in Sydney) and GWS fill in before their Bye; and
• Since their Bye they’ve Won against Essendon and the WCE, but in their most recent games they’ve Lost to North by 11 Points and been demolished by Port by 50 Points. The major outcome from that last game was continued pressure to “sack the coach” and / or “sack the President of the Club and the Board”. Some interesting graffiti on the Club buildings. Interesting comments in the multi-media highlighted the fact that the graffiti words were spelt correctly.

 

The ‘auld enemy’? I don’t need to say anything more?

 

Players to watch for:

 

• Cripps – Centre;
• Weitering – FB;
• De Koning – Ruck;
• Walsh – Wing / HF;
• Cerra – RR;
• Hewett – Rover / FP;
• Curnow – FF; and
• McGovern – CHB

 

Note that McKay, their other key goal-kicker is out, injured. There was some talk of Weitering also being injured but I haven’t seen any evidence of that, yet.

 

This collection from their Best listings is indicative of a focus on their Midfield plus a number of key positions in the corridor. Their best may encourage us to man some individuals with a ‘hard tag’ (Curnow and Weitering?) and seek to move the ball around the flanks.

 

Us:

 

Context?    We are now two-games clear at the top of the Ladder. Given the coach’s oft stated objective to make the Finals, I think he’s going to be successful. Our objective should be to seek to stay Top 4 and go on and Win the Premiership. We clearly have the List and the game-plan to achieve that. Who do you think are the threats?

 

Changes? I’ve bowed to public opinion and continue to leave De Goey out of the team. The logic? Consider getting him super-fit and releasing him into the Finals. I have removed the ‘managed’ option – for the next month or so, we need our best team on the field, then, we’re into the Finals. Both McCreery and Frampton are likely to remain Out for a while. Ins – I consider Maynard’s inclusion has a hugely positive effect on the team’s aggression. And Mitchell is a Brownlow winner. The following suggestions are made:

 

• Out:

• Not sure. Your ideas?; and

• In:

• Maynard; and

 

• Your views?

 

Game Plan –No changes of substance from last week. A couple of points, as usual:

 

• Application. Nothing is more important. Well demonstrated in our last few games. And Attitude is King.

• Taggers. Tagging roles might be useful, including an occasional hard lock-down role on their Forwards and / or our Midfield winning the ball early? And protecting our players? That should also be key.

• Midfield Management. Pendles guidance / on-field coaching to the collective Midfield.

• Passing. Accuracy of passes by foot and hand much better. Critical – watch the individual DE figures.

• Drive. Drive out of the Backline is a key part of our game plan. Be prepared to cross the field, even to kick backwards to change the direction. Kick-ins are an issue – we need to have a plan that everyone knows.

• Kicking for Goal. This is critical. Ball delivery needs to be to the best goal-kicking position. Be prepared to acknowledge difficult shots on goal and be willing to pass the ball inside the 50 to a better placed teammate. I value GA (goal assists) more highly than actual goals  scored. This continues to need improvement – the question should be “Why didn’t you pass it rather than seeking to score the ‘impossible goal’?”.And, to get the best from your Forward ‘talls’, get them to lead to different parts of the 50; don’t compress into packs; and
• Tackles. A major success but still some opponents are spinning out of tackles. Love the multiple tacklers. The perennial complaint: “Hold your tackles!”, “never stop chasing” and be aware of who’s behind you before you ‘play-on’.

 

Our Aim?

• Be happy. Our team has been noticeably happier than most other teams(excluding our Opening Round game). They usually smile and laugh when things work and, importantly, when they don’t. They actually look like they’re enjoying the game, that they are Winners, regardless of the actual score on the scoreboard (thank you, Coach McRae). We should follow their lead and enjoy the game from our perspective, even when things don’t work.

 

Summary? Again, this is our game to Win when we decide that and implement our Game plan throughout the four Quarters. Note, we’ve been producing Wins but not by the margins we should have. We need to Win, throughout the game, not letting up, particularly as we start heading to the Finals.

 

Winning Selection. Collingwood to Win by 17 Points. BOG – JoshD with 32 touches, including 9 Clearances. Goal kickers include two’s from Mihocek, Hill, Elliott, McStay and Perryman. Other notable action (suggested previously, too): Maynard tags NickD’s tagger – some very solid tackling but no Reports. Well done.

 

TV: There’s a surprise – no FTA coverage. Who makes these decisions? Go to Kayo and Fox Footy or head out to your Club or pub.

 

Weather: Slight chance of light rain, but, hey, it’s Melbourne. Get out the boots with ‘stops’.

 

Ground Reports? Reports please (after or before)? I’d especially like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar?

 

Other:

 

• AFLW – Pencil the start date in – Thursday, 14 August, including getting to the competition’s first game: Carlton versus Collingwood at Ikon Park; bounce at 7.15pm. The draw? Go to www.afl.com.au/fixture?Competition=3&Season=84&Round=1301.
• VFL – Last game we Won against the Southport Sharks by 9 Points. Next, on Saturday 5 July is against Carlton at Ikon Park; bounce at 7.10pm. This game is between us placed 7^thand them placed 13^th, on the Ladder. Critically, the Top 10 places go through to the Finals.
• VFLW team – Another great Win by the girls against the Box Hill Hawks by 11 Points. Well done, Ladies. Next on 5^thJuly at Victoria Park is between us and Carlton; bounce at 10.05am. This game is between us, placed 5^th on the Ladder, and them, placed 10^th. In this competition, the Top 6 go into the Finals.
• US AFL Combine – 20 – 22 June at Dallas, USA. Apparently the principal qualification is to be at least 206 cm tall. Geelong, Hawthorn, GC and St Kilda are joining us at the event. Cox, reflecting his selection at the 2014 Combine at Los Angeles, has very big boots to fill –  211 cm, 135 games, 125 goals, 2023 Premiership and, perhaps most importantly, Australian citizenship. Any outcomes seen?None yet?
• Do you favour the return of a State of Origin series? Why?
• Anything else, everyone else?

 

Next:

 

• Round 17. Friday, 11^th July – Gold Coast versus Collingwood in the Gold Coast; bounce at 7.40pm. Do we have anyone up there?

 

• For an assessment of the next month, go to www.afl.com.au/news/1335766/fixture-analysis-carlton-blues-fail-to-capitalise-on-easiest-run-geelong-cats-dream-finish. The assessment positions us 2^nd Hardest month along with identifying Geelong, GC and WB with the Easiest games, noting likely Top 4 listings. Worth a browse.

 

This is our year. Always believe; never, ever give up! Go Pies.

 

Cam

 

 

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