Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life 2024: Round 3 Review / Round 4 Preview

 

True Believers, all. G’day.

 

A happier task today compared with the last couple (three, actually) of messages.

 

A confession first. I’m not sure why but I never expected we’d Lose the GF against Brisbane last year. I thought we were a substantially better team, particularly playing in Melbourne. Even during the game I thought we were the better team and would eventually Win, deservedly so. My personal view was that if Brisbane Won, it would have been an accident. The end-result by 4 Points, in my view did not accurately reflect the teams or the game. The difference, in our favour, should have been much higher. More like Round 3 on Thursday. The margin then, in our favour, fairly accurately reflected our dominance, in spite of the game being played at their home ground with that ridiculous and highly irritating ‘pop music’ played after each of their goals (and I don’t much like John Denver songs anyway). What is a bit confusing are the numbers. More on that below.

 

Another confession – In my last email I got the betting wrong – numbers in the wrong place. Brisbane were favourites.

 

Round 3

 

Collingwood 14.8.92 defeated Brisbane 10.12.72.

 

Match Report. Go to www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/5919#match-report.

 

Coach’s comments. Go to www.afl.com.au/video/1096212/full-post-match-r3-magpies?videoId=1096212&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1711629302001&references=AFL_MATCH:5916. A ‘happy’ coach, once again.  What do you think?

 

Scoring:

 

• Q1       5 goals (us) / 1 goal (them). A great start;
• Q2       0 / 4. Quite extraordinary Brisbane performance establishing a HT deficit of 5 Points for us;
• Q3       5 / 1. Another reversal, in our favour, establishing a final change lead of 20 Points;
• Q4       4 / 4. Broadly equivalent Quarter; totalling:
• Total:   14 / 10. A dominant Win. I would hope the Club is having a very close look at how and why the Q1 and Q3 performance was so different to Q2. I don’t have the Quarter by Quarter numbers. Your views?

 

Umpiring

 

A big improvement. But, even here where we benefitted 30 / 20 Frees, the questions on ‘missed’ Frees remains. Many of the Frees were for ‘caught with the ball’ / ‘incorrect disposal’ which is frequently assessed and decided somewhat randomly. This specific offence needs to be tightened up. What are your views?

 

Numbers:

 

Category	Statistics (us / them)	Comments
Disposals (D)	319 / 356	I usually don’t include this. In this case, however, there is a pretty substantial difference here indicating that the majority of the game was led by Brisbane; the question of course relates to their (and our) effectiveness. When you look at the Marks, below, you see this distinction further exaggerated.
Hit Outs (HO)	44 / 49	As I’ve said previously, this is not a particularly useful comparison. ‘Hit Out to advantage’ would be better. But it does set a starting point in the link between HO / Clearance / Inside 50 / Goal. The comparison starting with a small deficiency is further emphasised by their dominance reflected in Clearance, Inside 50s and should have given them an advantage in scoring.
Clearances (Cl)	34 / 42	Centre – 13 / 10 – Win for us. Stoppages – 21 / 32 – Substantial Loss for us. The further reduction from the HO starting point deficiency for us. According to this, their Midfield seemed to dominate. Clearance numbers identify an advantage here to give a start on winning the Inside 50 numbers, and scoring.
Inside 50s (I50)	43 / 56	Key. This reflects their dominance, however look at the DEi50, below.
Disposal Efficiency (DE)	72.7% / 73.0%	For the whole game. A marginal difference.
Player numbers with DE equal / over 80%	6 / 8
Disposal Efficiency inside 50 (DEi50)	51.2% / 37.5%	This is absolutely critical. The difference is huge. So, they got the ball i50 far more often than us, but used it far less effectively. Combined together, their Inside 50 numbers advantage is significantly outweighed by our Inside 50 advantage.
Contested Possessions (CP)	133 / 134	A fair reflection of effort. Not dissimilar.
Turnovers	63 / 72	I haven’t used this statistic too often. What it shows is that, over the whole game, Brisbane won control of the ball against us more frequently than we did the reverse.
Marks (M)	77 / 89	Significant relating to how they played the game – multiple kicks and multiple marks.
Marks inside 50 (Mi50)	9 / 6	An important part of the basis of our effectiveness inside 50.
Tackles (T)	85 / 53	Huge. Yes, it did look like our coach got what he’d asked for – multiple-player tackles. The difference to previous weeks was marked.
Tackles inside 50 (Ti50)	16 / 9	As above re Marks.
Goals scored	14 / 10	The result. Scoring shots – 22 / 22.
1%’ers	51 / 51	This figure identifies the level of effort going into the team’s defence – no difference. Our backline (the strength of our team last year) had a much improved day, Nick D and Noble really brought the counter-attack back to the HB line.
Free Kicks	30 / 20	Where and when rather, than simple numbers, with a focus on not missing decisions.

 

The Game

 

An interesting game controlled by us in Q1 and Q3 and by Brisbane in Q2. The difference between it and our previous games this season? Pressure. ‘Suffocating’ pressure. Pressure imposed by every player with multiple tacklers pursuing their “defensive intent”

 

The statistics, above, show just how important it is to use the ball effectively once you’ve got it inside the 50; more so than even the number of entries into the 50.

 

The Backline was significantly improved with Nick D and Noble significantly augmenting the counter-attack role out of the HB line pursuing the “run & gun game” (no, I’d never heard the phrase before either). Multiple Forward targets were used to score.

 

A solid Win, even without some of the stars performing to their best. It’s going to be interesting to watch them when that happens.

 

Enjoyable moments for me:

 

• The tackles by everyone;
• Goals by everyone;
• Contributions by Noble, McCreery, Hill and Frampton; and
• Crisp’s goal immediately after his substitution;

 

And a few I didn’t like:

 

• Brisbane’s Q2 – quite extraordinary; and
• Pendles’ slap. Silly.

 

Any favourites moments from you?

 

Lessons

 

Enjoyment. The team need to keep their smiles there;

 

Motivation. The enthusiasm for the contest needs to continue. Selection needs to be based on this enthusiasm, above all other things;

 

Manning selections. None specifically identified, but Crisp as the sub is a wasted resource, but a replacement is preferably without losing Noble, Macrae or McInnes from the run-on side. Places for Richards and Sullivan, following their VFL performances up Forward and in the Midfield at stoppages, respectively, warrant consideration. Begg also did well in the ruck. Maybe rest (aka “manage”) some – pick two or three older players?;

 

Game Plan. There was nothing wrong with a Game Plan based on getting and keeping possession through to scoring goals. Brisbane achieved this occasionally (Q2)  when we appeared unable to block their transition and their delivery, and they stopped us. But then, we turned things around; and

 

Magpie Army. We’ve been there before; in the hard times. We’re there in the good times and the bad times. Maintain that support. And for the team (and coaches), maybe some recognition of the stress you put us under with the close games.

 

Views?

 

The Best

 

The AFL website records our Best as Nick D, Noble, Elliott, Frampton, Josh D and Mitchell. I don’t have too many problems with any of these. I’m really pleased to see Nick D, Noble and Frampton doing well.

 

Your views?

 

Crowd:

 

The 34,022 crowd filled the Gabba. Their substantial advantage of the predominant Brisbane supporters kept them reasonably quiet

 

  ?

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Round 4

 

Sunday, 7^th April, bounce at 5.10pm, Collingwood versus Hawthorn at Adelaide Oval as part of the Gather Round.

 

We are 12^th on the Ladder on 84.3% percentage against their 17^th on 60.5% but they still have to play Geelong as part of Round 3. Even though this game is at the MCG rather than Kardinia Park do you expect this to result in a Hawthorn Win? So, their place may drop further and their percentage reduce; not that that matters much yet.

 

Current Betting. The current “Sportsbet” betting is $1.33 (us) / $3.34 (them). Potential for a bit of a killing backing them if they Win? Remember last year – Round 21? Anyone interested? Did anyone follow my advice supporting the Pies against Brisbane last week? Your views?

 

Them:

 

Hawthorn have been on a bit of a rebuild program since the heady threepeat period in 2013 – 15. Since then they made the Finals in 2018 from 4^th place on the Ladder, leaving after their Semi-Final defeat.

 

Our clash last year is worth having a look at. Firstly, Maginness’ tag shut down Nick D. Secondly, when you look at the team numbers, they won the Inside 50 numbers (43 (us) / 59 (them)), and the DE inside 50 (46.5% / 49.2%). They scored the first five goals and we were left playing catch-up  football. So they got the ball there more often and used it better – of course they Won. Their Best are incorporated below. Our Best was limited to Crisp, Pendles & Elliott.

 

This Season they have Lost to Essendon by 24 Points and Lost badly to Melbourne by 55. In both games, however, Hawthorn stayed level with their opponent for most of Q2 and Q3. What it says is they have the ability to match their opponent, but not for the whole game. Today they play Geelong. I might even watch to see what they are like.

 

Injuries. They have a few. Importantly, Wingard is unavailable.

 

Players to watch (based on our game last year and their games, so far, this year):

 

• Sicily – FB;
• Day – Wing;
• Maginness – HB / tagging role;
• Newcombe – RR;
• Moore – Centre;
• Breust – FP;
• Hardwick – CHB; and
• Nash – FF

 

And, of course, keep an eye on our boy, Jack, because of his Collingwood family connection. One of our number, rather ungraciously but with total fairness, said “nobody looks good in brown and yellow”. Not too much more to say, actually.

 

Us:

 

Not too much needs to change (very nearly the same as previous weeks):

 

• Team? A couple of changes are suggested above? And a couple of taskings? Your choices?

 

• Application? Let’s crank up the motivation a bit? No change to this general requirement – Application for four full Quarters. Hold the tackles. Establish and maintain control of the game (possessions). Look to where the ball is going before passing it. This was well-implemented last week. Keep it up and make it even better.

 

• Game Plan? No change to the current plan. Use varied entry to the 50 and be willing to move the ball to a better-placed goal scorer than setting packs. Crumb around packs, particularly defensively. Fix the kick-in plan – We need to keep possession so it’s not immediately turned around. So, avoid the long kicks to packs; look to passing the ball between teammates, particularly in the kick-in.

 

• Be happy? Let’s see some chatter. Better last week, but there’s still room for improvement.

 

Necessary Actions?

 

• Close attention to their Midfield – Newcombe, Moore & Day;
• Close attention to selected Forwards – Nash, Sicily & Ginnivan. Maybe tag Jack for a while to put him off his game (and for a bit of fun);
• Respond to tag on Nick D; and
• Note the Hawthorn strength in the corridor. Consider greater use of the Wings / boundary.

 

Weather. Cloudy, but dry following five days of sunshine.

 

TV:      Kayo or FOXTEL – Best for every game.

 

      No Free to Air TV.

 

My assessment?

 

• Collingwood to Win by 34 Points. BOG De Goey – 37 Disposals, 14 Clearances, 9 Goal Assists and 1 Goal.
• Mihocek gets 5 goals.
• Bobby, tagging Jack, has 19 Disposals, including 2 goals. Jack has 13 touches and no goals. Adjust for whoever gets the job.

 

Ground Reports? Guys, Reports please? I’d like to hear from other armchair warriors watching from afar?

 

The Future?

 

R5      Bye.

 

Other?

 

VFL. After a great Win in R1 against Sandringham recovering from their scoring the first 5 goals, a Loss this weekend against Brisbane in Brisbane by 2 Points. Go to www.afl.com.au/vfl/matches/6310. A few stand-outs worth watching. Next R3 – Sunday, 14 April, bounce – 2.05pm against Carlton at Ikon Park. We are always interested in how individuals are going? If you can get to a match, send us a Report please.

 

Always believe. Go Pies.

 

Cam

 

 

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