Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life 2024: Round 21 Review / Round 22 Preview

August 5, 2024 by Almanac Admin Leave a Comment

Fellow True Believers, that was a strange weekend. I’m enjoying writing this.

Firstly, I’d reached a very strong belief that we were finally back in the game 4-minutes into Q4, then things changed, leading inexorably to another close finish. But, we Won. And it’s always terrific against the olde enemy.

Secondly, and this includes a confession, we are also Foundation Members of the Giants. Why? We were (are) trying to get the AFL more interested in a Canberra-based team. Hasn’t really worked (yet) though the Giants’ Canberra games are mostly (totally, this year) sold out. So, as a stalwart Giants fan (obviously), I was invited to receive a gift from that Club on the ground before the bounce; which I accepted – a team’ autographed football (plus a few drinks for later). And I watched their game; what a game – a great recovery against a particularly ferocious Hawthorn.

The lesson from both games: How do you implement a recovery like Carlton and GWS implemented? And, how do you stop it? More below.

But, as always,

Go Pies.

Round 21

Collingwood 12.12.84 defeated Carlton 11.15.81.

Scoring shots 24 (us) / 26 (them).

Possession percentage: 37% (us) / 43% (them).

Match Report. www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/6067

Coach’s interview. www.afl.com.au/video/1188268/full-post-match-r21-magpies?videoId=1188268&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1722692388001&references=AFL_MATCH:6067. With Pendles. Worth a listen as they each praise the different parts of the game. Each noted the emphasis on the high-pressure, turnover game and the improvement at the right end of the season. In particular, the number of Members warranted praise.

Goals:

Q1 2 (us) / 1 (them) – After a mediocre start by both sides, particularly fortunate for us in their inability to kick a goal to save themselves (8 Behinds) we were all fair and equal at the first break;
Q2 4 / 2 – A bit of dominance by us leading to a 13-Point lead at Half Time;
Q3 5 / 3 – Better by us leading to a 25-Point lead at the final change; and
Q4 1 / 5 – Okay, a significant shut-down (by us) – Q4 scores were 1.3.9 (us) / 5.1.31 (them). Final result? ; and
Total: 12 / 11; a Win by 3-Points.

Numbers (some statistics taken, with comments). The numbers should be treated with some caution because they are a record across the whole game. In this game both managed to be on par in Q1, Carlton dominated Q4; we were in charge in Q2 and Q3. However, with some comments, the statistics are interesting:

Statistic	Numbers Us / Them	Comments
Disposals	316 / 364	Previously not normally included (but I think I’ll include them from now on), but here the difference was minimal unlike many of our recent Losing games. We have been swamped by our opponents in the last few weeks – they have controlled the games. Of note, something we pride ourselves on, the handball component – 124 / 123 was virtually identical.
Hit Outs (HO)	52 / 26	Again, I simply don’t believe these numbers. Isn’t Cameron doing well, generally, but particularly around the ground? I still don’t think he isn’t carrying an injury. The relevance of the HO number is highly suspect because it is not a measure of the effectiveness of the rucking – that would be ‘HO to advantage’ or, more accurately, Clearances.
Clearances	35 / 42	Includes: 12 / 11 Centre clearances and 23 / 31 stoppage clearances. This is, potentially, hugely significant, but note the difference between the HO comparison numbers and the Clearance comparison numbers. Our Midfield was dominated to a degree unaligned with the HO comparison that the HO numbers would indicate. ‘Clearance to Inside 50 to Goal’ is the ideal progression.
Inside 50s	51 / 58	This is critical because of the flow-through of the Clearance dominance – we did okay. Given the numbers are a comparison of the number of times the ball is in a position from where a score can result, it usually flows from these Clearance numbers. The challenge? How effectively did each side then use it? See below.
Disposal Efficiency (DE)	67.4% / 73.6%	Not too different. Not particularly useful, anyway, across the whole game.
DE inside 50	52.9% / 44.8%	This is the critical difference relating to Clearances and Inside 50s, identified above. This is where you see how effectively the teams use their entry into the 50 – and we somehow recorded a significant dominance. Their advantage of Inside 50 numbers was offset by this.
Goals scored	12 / 11	The fundamental result.
Players with DE of 80%	5 / 7	Reflecting their marking and passing game, I suspect.
Contested Possessions (CP)	130 / 126	Okay, we Won this. The measure of how hard each team is working – CP, Tackles and Turnovers combined.
Uncontested Possessions (UCP)	163 / 237	This comparison highlights their game plan of using short passes with uncontested marks between their players – ‘Keep-ens off’, boring footy.
Turnovers	64 / 61	Really important, above.
Marks (M)	63 / 115	Across game. They used shorter passes to unmanned team mates to move the ball, keeping possession. Impacts on CP.
M inside 50	11 / 11	Impacts on DE inside 50 numbers. Does not follow the above.
Tackles (T)	62 / 51	Important – see above. Across game. Pies’ domination.
T inside 50	5 / 7	Also impacts on DE inside 50 numbers. Doesn’t reflect the above.
1 %’ers	67 / 40	Really important. This also something we pride ourselves on.
Free kicks	16 / 21	This number comparison didn’t surprised me. I thought the umps did a generally poor job, principally because of the lack of consistency. Interesting to see Razor Ray – one of our faves (not) – not presiding. He was at the GWS / Hawthorn game I watched.

The Game

This game was notable (and terrific from our perspective) for three Quarters. Not sure what to call Q4? We Lost Q4 but Won the game. So it was a Win, but a few things are identifiable as needing to be addressed. If I was the Hawthorn coach I’d be looking at their Q4 the same way – Losing by 2-Points from a last change lead of 28-Points.

If you want to do that to yourself, the last two minutes of the game are at www.afl.com.au/video/1188003/last-two-mins-pies-hang-on-after-blues-miss-after-the-siren?videoId=1188003&modal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1722687474001I don’t think so, though it does have a happy ending.

Statistically, Carlton had greater numbers of Inside 50s but used it far less effectively there. These numbers, sort of, balance out. For us, our substantial lead at the 4-minute mark of Q4 was, obviously, enough. But,I strongly believe, the coaching staff need to sit down and work out a plan on how to stop this sort of thing.

Our ball handling and our decision-making regarding where and when to pass was much better, particularly compared with two weeks ago. There are still passes that went directly to an opponent. We also need to be smarter getting the ball out of a melee, using hand-passes rather than attempted kicks which got us into serious trouble several times, particularly near the end. And people spinning out of tackles continues. An observation from the last few weeks – when our players received the ball particularly close-in, there was almost a total disregard to anyone following or coming in from the side, about to tackle.

The result: The Pies are now sitting 11^thj on the Ladder outside the Eight by a Win and percentage. Getting in is still a distinct possibility – we just need to keep Winning; some other teams need to Lose. We really need two Wins and better percentage. I note that betting on winning the Premiership by us is now $34; last week $81. Might be worth a flutter. See specifics below for our next games.

Best: The AFL website identifies the following as Best – NickD, Pendles, Cameron, Howe, Hoskin-Elliott and Hill. Great to see Pendles effectively amongst the Best, still. Don’t disagree their inclusions but I might have added Maynard (15D @ 66.7%, 4 M, 3 T, 390 mG, 3 SI, 5 IP and 2CP) and McCreery (10 D @ 60.0%, 4 T, 4 Cl, 5 SI, 1 IP, 1 Ti50 and 4 CP). Both were significant players, both on their fellow-team members and their opponents. McCreery’s numbers don’t really identify the ferocity he applied and the impact this had on the Carlton team. Welcome back! See the coach’s comments.

Injuries: While I know Cameron has performed exceptionally well (with a very occasional exception) I am not confident he is not carrying an injury? See below – a couple of weeks ago all three of our future Rucks’ options (Steene, Begg and Smits) were all out, injured, however Smits might have recovered from his concussion by now. And now we know De Goey is certainly out; not sure for how long.

Crowd – 86,187. Okay, but less than I’d expected (wanted 90,000+).

——————————————————————————————————————————

Round 22

Friday, 9^th August – Sydney versus Collingwood at the SCG; bounce at 7.40pm.

Bugger – Sydney at the SCG. I hate that little ground.

Sydney are at the top of the Ladder on 56 points based on their 14 Wins and 6 Losses with a 126.1% percentage. In comparison we are in 11^th place on the Ladder with 44 points based on our 10 Wins, 8 Losses and 2 Draws with a 100.2% percentage. Having said that Sydney have Lost four of their last five games. They go into this game following a 112-Point Loss to Port at Adelaide Oval last weekend. How they deal with that in the context of playing at home is likely to have massive consequences for us and them.

Current betting is $2.72 / $1.46. Just to clarify, Sydney at home are favourites but, interestingly, not by much.

Them

After their R20 Loss to the WB, the Sydney coach:

“It was obviously disappointing from go to woe really. As I said after the game, there wasn’t really any aspect of the game that was recognisable to the way we like to play.”

After their R21 Loss to Port, Matthew Lloyd from AAA was even more critical suggesting they’d lost their magic, particularly their movement of the ball forwards was ‘bombing’, both predictable and relatively easily defended against. This ball-delivery into the 50 is something criticised in this report from time to time. You would expect (maybe hope if you were a Sydney supporter) some changes to this approach. Maybe, it allows us to man their Forward line keys with close defenders.

The list of Players to Watch, below, indicates their reliance particularly on their Midfield. Both Grundy and Adams have been solid acquisitions by Sydney, who are very well known to us. As always, win the Midfield battle, win the war. Plus others elsewhere.

This will be our second clash with Sydney this season. The first was on Friday, 15^th March. Emails before and following were sent out on 12^th March and 17^th March respectively. If you can’t find the past emails the easiest location is the on-line ‘Footy Almanac’. Just type ‘Hooke’ into the search engine.

Injuries. They have a number of key players out because of injury – Papley, McInerny.

Players to watch:

Grundy – Ruck;
Adams – Midfield;
Gulden – Wing;
Rowbottom – Rover;
Heeney – RR;
McCartin – FB; and
Amartey – FF, if playing – listed as Managed in the last game list.

Keep an eye especially on Grundy, for old-times sake. Think we could get him back?

Not too much needs to change from last week except some changes to replace De Goey and to accept previous injuries to return; maybe a rest or two:

Team?
Replace De Goey and, potentially, Cameron. I also thought that both Quaynor, Lipinski and Frampton might benefit from a rest;
Get Krueger and Richards back;
Check availability of Smit from concussion protocols. He did well in the VFL previous game as Ruck; as did Allan, Macrae, Dean and DeMattia in different roles.
Who to replace?Your thoughts?
Application?Possession of the ball lets you win the match – lose possession and you are fighting backwards. No change.
Game Plan?No change to the current plan. Work on kick-in plan. Work on a Plan that runs for four Quarters. Work on coordination of the Forward line and the Backline. Avoid disrupting the Backline to ease the burden on the Forwards – leave Frampton back and leave Howe there. Continue to better arrange and coordinate delivery into and across the 50 – plans. Speed up the movement out of the Backline – establish plans to execute this.
Practice?
talking to each other?
tackling?
Be happy?Much improved.

Necessary Actions?

Close attention to their Midfield, particularly countering any tagging by them. Win the Midfield battle – use the measures of Clearances and Inside 50s to assess;
Close attention to their Forwards; and
Enjoy the Win.

TV. Free to air coverage on TV. Also on Kayo, whose commentators I prefer.

Weather. Very slight rain is forecast on the days leading to the game, but nothing significant before or on the day. It will be dry. Moulded-sole boots okay.

My prediction. Collingwood to Win by 37 Points.

BOG – NickD with 39 Disposals @ 87.6% DE, 12 Cl and 4 GA.

Richards scores 4 goals; Elliot and Hill get two each.

The Future

Round 23 – Saturday, 17th August – Collingwood versus Brisbane Lions at the MCG; bounce at 4.35pm. No Free to air TV coverage; and
Round 24 – Date / time TBA – Melbourne versus Collingwood at the MCG.

Other

VFL. Still a couple to go, still. Last weekend was a welcome Bye. Next game, Round 20 on 9 August is versus Sydney; bounce at 2.05pm at Tramway Oval in Sydney.Anyone attending? Briefs please? Go Boys.
Their last game – R21 is versus Brisbane at the AIA Centre on 17 August; bounce at 12.05pm.
The importance of the VFL team cannot be over-emphasised – it provides the ability for returning AFL team players to gain some work-up experience before returning to the AFL side. Accordingly, it is disappointing that they will not make the Finals.
VFLW. No more, ladies.
Games. Remember for those who can’t get to the VFL / VFLW games, you can watch them live atwww.afl.com.au/stream-your-team?utm_source=aflcomau&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=state_league_streaming.

Ground Reports? Now I know several of you went to the Carlton game. Reports please? I’m not sure who else went. Is anyone going to the next? I’d like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar? More please.

Always believe. Never give up. Go Pies.

Cam

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