Cam Hooke’s Collingwood Life 2024: Round 16 Preview

 

True Believers, all. Did you enjoy the week off? Who did you barrack for in the Geelong / Carlton game? Did anyone watch North’s final Quarter against Melbourne?

 

I looked at the Ladder before the weekend with reference to the GC / Freo game and had worked out that if the GC won, they would step up to 6^th place, whereas if Freo won, as they did, they’d move to 5^th, as they have. What it shows is that the competition is extraordinarily tight – there are eight teams currently sitting with 28 or 32 points, sitting between 6^th and 13^th on the Ladder. And which team went? Melbourne.

 

Any other observations? Nothing from Bali? How about: Isn’t it lucky North are starting their run from such a low position? They were pretty good against us for most of our match. They were magnificent against Melbourne, unfortunately not for the whole match and they didn’t start early enough.

 

Round 15

 

Bye.

 

Hopefully, some serious recovery time.

 

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Round 16

 

Saturday, 29^th June – Gold Coast versus Collingwood at the GC; bounce at 4.35pm.

 

The GC are sitting in 12^th place on the Ladder based on 7 Wins and 7 Losses, but, as described above, they could have been 6^th and are still only a couple of Wins outside the Eight, but they’d need some Losses by teams above them to progress. Their percentage is 105.5% – this becomes particularly important when you start looking more closely at the Ladder. Our 4^th place based on 8 Wins, 4 Losses and 2 Draws, with a percentage of 107.3% is a fairly positive comparison. But this game is a GC ‘home game’ – see below.

 

Betting? A day or two before last weekend they were Favourites for this game with the betting $1.94 (us) / $1.90 (them). Current betting reflects their most recent result and has changed. We are now Favourites with the betting $1.80 / $2.05. Still not a lot in it.

 

Them

 

The Gold Coast’s performance this season has been simply extraordinary. At home (and, as it turned out, in Darwin) they’ve produced good performances and Wins. In fact, they have Won every one of their five home games (plus two in Darwin making up the seven Wins total) and they’ve Lost each of the other ‘away’ games (except Darwin). So, at least you could say they are consistent. There was the expectation that this year they would make the Finals. And so they might, still. I watched some of their most recent game against Freo last night. While the margin, at the end was only 20 points, the scoring shots difference (25 (Freo) / 15 (GC) ) gives a better perspective. That said, the GC team was applauded by the commentators for their will, their pressing, particularly through the corridor with direct ball movement and particularly for periods – technically (well mathematically anyway) the GC won the 2^nd Half of the Freo game.

 

GC should not be seen as ‘easy-beats’, anytime, but particularly when playing at home.

 

Once again, we see a team focussed on their Midfield – Witts (remember his Collingwood experience), Miller, Anderson and Rowell are key to their Midfield. Also check the numbers of players to watch, listed below. Last night they were at their best being aggressive and offensive, through the corridor. Maybe skirt around their Midfield, if necessary. Or, maybe, it was Freo’s occasionally questionable defence – hold those tackles.

 

Injuries. They have a very short Injury List.

 

Players to watch:

 

 

• Rowell – Rover;
• Powell – HB;
• Flanders – CHB / HB;
• Anderson – RR;
• Miller – Centre; and
• Witts – Ruck.

 

Actions. No suggestion of a tag, or shut-down, more generally, is offered. And, interestingly, no Forwards are listed either.

 

Us

 

Nothing needs to change from last week except getting some people back:

 

 

• Team? Key returns – Pendles, De Goey and Richards. Keep Frampton and Howe in the Backline. Your thoughts? 
• Game Plan? No change. Maybe use of Wings rather than the corridor? Start early and finish the same way.
• Win the Midfield battle – use the measures of Clearances and Inside 50s to assess; and
• Enjoy the Win.

 

1. TV.      No Free to air coverage.

            Go to Kayo or Fox Footy.

 

Weather. Dry and cloudy; showers are forecast a couple of days earlier in the week. Significance? Not a lot. Moulded-sole boots okay.

 

My prediction.          Collingwood to Win by 57 Points.

                                    BOG – Bobby Hill – no goals, but 8 Goal Assists. He ran the Forward Line like a traffic cop at peak hour.

                                    Harrison and Richards each score 5 goals.

 

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Other

 

• VFL. After the VFL side’s Bye last week, their next game is on Saturday, 29 June against Essendon (18th on the Ladder compared with our 19th place) at Windy Hill; bounce at 1.05pm. Reports please?

 

• VFLW. Thank you, Ladies, for your efforts. We finished the season in 7th place on the Ladder outside the Top 6 by points as well as percentage. Notable was our final game against the Ladder-leader Williamstown. They Won 2.5.17 to our 1.1.7; 3 goals scored in the whole game.

 

• Games.Remember for those who can’t get to the VFL / VFLW games, you can watch them live atwww.afl.com.au/stream-your-team?utm_source=aflcmau&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=state_league_streaming.

 

Ground Reports? Now I’m not sure who went to our last game. Do we have any GC-based members? I’d like to hear from the armchair warriors watching from afar?  More please.

 

Always believe. Go Pies.

 

Cam

 

 

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