Analysis on St Kilda Records: Victoria versus Interstate

As I have mentioned to you in the previous statistics article Fremantle’s Records in Melbourne, my curiosity of Fremantle’s records when playing in Melbourne, brought on by reading a match report of Brisbane Lions versus St Kilda in 2011 in the Footy Almanac 2011, continues analysing St Kilda’s playing records in Victoria and Interstate.

Once again, I have spent days to do researches for the subject. Thanks to the Footywire website, I was able to collect match details. And then I used Microsoft Excel to calculate numbers.

At first, here is the club’s win-loss-draw records between 2009 and 2014 (Home and Away Season). The six-year span is used to make analysis fair between St Kilda and Fremantle.

First column: win-loss-draw for all venues

Second column: win-loss-draw for interstate venues including matches hosted by St Kilda and other Victorian clubs and Westpac Stadium in Wellington, New Zealand

2009                            20-2-0                         6-0-0

2010                            15-6-1                         4-2-0

2011                            12-9-1                         4-2-0

2012                            12-10-0                      2-4-0

2013                            5-17-0                         1-6-0

2014                            4-18-0                         0-7-0

Table 1. St Kilda’s win-loss-draw records (2009 to 2014)

While Ross Lyon was the senior coach (between 2009 and 2011), the club played well outside Victoria with 14 wins and four losses, especially in 2009 when the Saints won all six interstate matches. It shows great era of the Saints as well as does the record of entire home and away season. But the 2012 season’s record could be the sign of going down.

For these three years, St Kilda played eight final series matches including three Grand Finals (including the draw one in 2010). These games were played only in Melbourne (seven at MCG and one at Docklands Stadium) with total four wins, three losses and one draw.

On the other hand, St Kilda has been struggling with winning interstate games since Lyon had got on a ship and docked himself at Fremantle after the 2011 season.

In 2012, as the first year for Scott Watters, St Kilda just missed the top eight with 12 wins and 10 losses. However the Saints only won two interstate matches, two games fewer than 2011.

Then the next year, we were at 16th with only five wins and managed to win just one interstate game against GWS.

Last season in 2014 was a tough one for Sainters. Sadly we won the 27th wooden spoon with only four wins. We were not able to go marching in outside Victoria. Even we let underdogs, Brisbane Lions, win in Wellington, New Zealand on Anzac Day.

For the last three seasons, St Kilda won only three matches and lost 17 matches outside Victoria. However Scott Watters or Alan Richardson was not to be blamed because we have got many young players who are developing skills in playing AFL footy.

Now, let’s take another analysis of margins to see the subject from different angles.

First column: Average Margins at all Venues

Second column: Average Margins at Victorian Venues

Third column: Average Margins at Interstate Venues

[Note] Average margin is calculated with total margin divided into number of matches.

2009                            35.7          37.8          30.2

2010                            7.5             7.9             6.2

2011                            9.7             7.1             16.8

2012                            20.2          25.2          6.8

2013                            -16.8         -16.8         -16.7

2014                            -43.5         -39.7         -51.4

Table 2. St Kilda’s Margin Records (Home and Away Seasons; 2009 to 2014)

From data shown in Table 2, St Kilda has better records in Victorian venues than interstate ones. However a) Saints lost matches at Kardinia Park in Geelong in 2013 and 2014, b) average margin at interstate venues was bigger in 2011 than at Victorian venues, and c) average margins in three categories were in similar numbers in 2013.

Saints get used to playing at Docklands Stadium and MCG, I can conclude. But the story is different for Final Series in September where top eight are playing to strive for the flag. St Kilda’s average margins in final series between 2009 and 2011 are in the first column on Table 3 below. Second column shows average margins for all venues in the entire AFL seasons while the third column shows average margins for Victorian venues in the entire footy seasons.

2009                            7.7             32.4          33.1

2010                            -7.0           5.2             5.0

2011                            -25.0         8.2             5.2

Table 3. St Kilda’s Margin Records (Final Seasons and Entire AFL Seasons; 2009 to 2011)

Numbers of average margins in all venues and Victoria venues went down after adding data of Final Seasons. Indeed all involving clubs expect fewer margins in September. I cannot find any advantage of playing footy at MCG or Docklands in September for the Saints comparing with Home and Away Season.

What I hope now is that St Kilda is getting stronger week by week and free of pressure playing away games. Then we will be better than the club in 2009.

I’m sorry that I placed so many numbers, my beloved Saints. But I believe the Saints will win the flag by 2020. Go the Saints!

About Yoshihiro Imagawa

Love, passion and pride are seen on the footy that is the biggest part of my life. 1. St Kilda Club member: I am a passionate and crazy Sainter. Just hope we will win the second flag soon, especially after Dogs and Tigers having ended long premiership draughts. 2. The Osaka Dingoes Player and Public Relations Officer: Player number 44 that I chose to honour Stephen Milne with my wish being like a small forward like him. Lenny Hayes' hardworking attitudes are adopted on my trainings and practices. Nick Riewoldt's great plays are in my player audiobook too. 3. Writing: Here on the Almanac and also on the World Footy News. My skills utilise on great footy websites.

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