NRL Finals Week 2: The Road to the Finals – Part 2

 

The Road to the Finals – Part 2

 

WARNING

Read the warning from last week- nothing has changed – Ed

 

Week 1

Grand Final Winner Market (as of Wednesday 13/8)

 

 

The market provides some change for us. Penrith and Brisbane have both shortened (understandably) in the market while everyone else is blowing. Melbourne out from 6.5, Warriors from 11s, Newcastle and Roosters 21s which means in the bookies’ eyes the punters are queuing up for the top two. And rightly so. This week’s games have the Warriors at home at $1.52 to beat Newcastle and Melbourne at an incredible $1.27 to beat the Chooks at AAMI Park

 

FORM GUIDE

 

Pos		Diff.	Home	Form	Next
1	Panthers	26		1-0	Bye
2	Broncos	26		1-0	Bye
3	Storm	-26	Yes	0 – 1	Roosters
4	Warriors	-26	Yes	0 – 1	Knights
5	Knights	2	No	1 – 0	Warriors
7	Roosters	1	No	1 – 0	Storm

 

Barrier

Remembering the key piece of information from last week – only twice in over 100 years has a team from outside the Top 4 barriers won the race – I’m not sure where to look for an outsider. The Top 2 were clinical in their disposal of their opponents last week. The best evidence the Broncos provided was at the start of the second half when the game was still live, they actually belted Melbourne out of it. A long time coming. At the same time Melbourne were as poor as their weather. Grant was disappointing, Munster seemed lost, Hughes had little impact and Meaney looked like he was waiting for Pap to come on. Add to that gnome-like displays by their centre three-quarters and surely Melbourne can’t play that badly again. And with Olam back additional rib protection will be required for the Roosters. They have injury concerns but they are nothing compared to the Roosters who were good in patches beating Cronulla but in my view will be in the Thai Restaurant stockpot come Saturday lunchtime. Either way the dark cloud of Penrith awaits the winner.

Speaking of the Panthers I read a magazine article on the Florida Panther in National Geographic the other day. Their advice when dealing with Panthers was “don’t run, make eye contact and fight back if attacked, preferably using rocks, sticks or your bare hands if need be.”  One of these clubs is going to have to fight back with more than sticks and stones if they want to progress.

Newcastle may still be the surprise packet. While they didn’t play well on Sunday they are still in the comp after beating a brave Canberra who had chances to win the game but didn’t. While the game was highly entertaining (with a good old-fashioned biting with no real harm done compared to Bumper taking a chomp of MacRitchies ear) it is not possible to beat the Top 2 teams when you turn possession over as often as they did. The Warriors learnt a lesson about finals last week and if Ponga is on song, I think they will get a second lesson this weekend. Clearly Johnson returning gives the fifth team a strong chance of beating the fourth team.

 Trainers

Walters and Cleary get the opportunity to sit back and watch. A genuine bonus at this time of the year. Bellamy is the most experienced coach left. His teams rarely put in two poor performances. At his press conference after the Bronco’s match, he was philosophical and recognised he had been completely out played by his former pupil. Robinson, also highly experienced has massaged his team into the finals and they are held together by band aids. They are not sure who will play where but short of a Walker/Keary miracle Bellamy will have an eye on getting the rocks, sticks and bare hands out next week if necessary.

Webster and O’Brien are two of the most inexperienced coaches in the comp and one is headed to a preliminary final. O’Brien has the hottest player in this game and possibly the game. If these sides play like they did last week the Kevolution will roll through them in seven days’ time. The Warriors have had a good season and the challenge for Webster is to progress into Season 2024.

Tracks

AAMI park has been a burial ground for stronger sides than this patched-up Roosters outfit so I hope they have a stayover as they could enjoy a night at the Crown and a lovely day on the punt at Flemington on Saturday. Go Media Stadium (formerly Mt Smart) in Auckland won’t be enough to get the Warriors over the line. Newcastle is used to a full house of rabid supporters for them so this won’t feel that much different. Auckland’s weather is going to be fine and 18 degrees which at 4pm is perfect for open rugby league and that suits one player- Ponga. He just needs his piano movers to give him a stage.

Jockey

Newcastle’s fortunes definitely ride on their shining Knight. If their forward pack get over the Warriors which I think they can, they will pave the path for a backline that includes Best, Gagai, the exciting Young and much improved Marzhew.  Having Clunes at half also benefits as Hastings was not fit last week. The Warriors on the other hand welcome back Johnson and must be relieved Harris rightfully avoided suspension. Fonua-Blake will have to be dominant in the early exchanges.

I rang my mate Robbie late in the Roosters match last week and said “Well Wobbie, what about your Woosters, Walker, Wadley and Wong! Wobinson is a wonder!” and I think they are the keys if the Chooks are not going to end up at the Steggles outlet in Laverton. Wong definitely announced himself and you have to wonder why Walker was dropped. Melbourne on the other hand need their three key players Munster, Hughes and Grant to show the way. Surely, they all will produce more than last week.

Logo Battle

Knight beats Warrior due to the advance in technology made in armaments.

Chooks are no good in a storm. They get blown away if left in the open!

 

Best Queensland Schoolboys (everything in between)

Warriors              Nil

Newcastle           Gagai -Sarina, Mann -Winton, Bradman Best’s Dad Roger- Ipswich

Melbourne          Grant -Yeppoon, Munster- Rockhampton, MacDonald -Ormeau

Roosters              Allan-South Brisbane, Walker-Ipswich, Collins – North Brisbane.

 

Conclusion

My analysis leads me to Newcastle and the Storm to most probably meet their executioners in the preliminary final the following week. If I was a gambling man (which I am) I would be taking Newcastle 1-12 and the Storm 13+, currently paying $7.60. I’m also tempted to have a little on Ponga to win the Churchill Medal at $41. If Newcastle make the GF, and that’s a BIG if, win lose or draw he is a chance of being the star. So once again it’s that easy Almanac readers! Hopefully you’ll now be eagerly awaiting Part 3.

 

Read more from Matt O’Hanlon, including his Week 1 Preview where he sets it all up HERE

 

 

To return to the www.footyalmanac.com.au  home page click HERE

Our writers are independent contributors. The opinions expressed in their articles are their own. They are not the views, nor do they reflect the views, of Malarkey Publications.

Do you enjoy the Almanac concept?
And want to ensure it continues in its current form, and better? To help keep things ticking over please consider making your own contribution.

Become an Almanac (annual) member – CLICK HERE