Almanac Racing – Guineas Day Preview: Is it good for you?

Greetings All,

 

What a farce the first week of trade week is.  Four days and one trade completed, surely all they need is a week to posture and 3 days at most to get the deals done.  Then again what fills the headlines?  Racing would like to but probably not with the dominant headlines this week with Darren Weir now facing charges from the police and the grandstanding from V’Landys with respect to the Melbourne Cup.

 

With respect to the Weir issues, the optics are not great for the sport especially for those that don’t follow it.  For those that do it is important that these matters are identified, investigated and exposed.  As for the concerns of Peter V’Landys and the Melbourne Cup, he is a fine spruiker for the NSW Racing and is doing a very good job promoting it.  His commentary that moving the Melbourne Cup would in the best interests of Australian racing though is bollocks, good for Sydney maybe but no-one else.  He will have bigger issues next year as he takes on the role of head honcho for the NRL.  The biggest issue for Sydney racing is that their major carnival collides with the opening of all the major football codes including NRL.  How those hats get juggled will be interesting.

 

A quick look back at last week before diving into another couple of huge meetings this weekend.  Fidelia could not win with the state of the Flemington track early in the day, but the alternative Haut Brion Her used the inside advantage to lead all the way.  Sunlight did hold out Santa Ana Lane with great showing from the other two horses mentioned in Zoutori and Vital Silver filling out the first four.  Kings Will Dream got the choccies in the Turnbull, not giving up on Mystic Journey for the Cox Plate yet.  Then Surprise Baby surprised no-one to book a place in the Melbourne Cup, not sure about favouritism though.  Then a blow out in the last.  In Sydney, Funstar was pretty simple, turns out Brutal was more than a danger, Kolding got us home in the Epsom but could not find the winner in the Metropolitan.

 

The Guineas, My Goodness!

 

A huge day at the Heath with four group one races plus tickets to the Caulfield Cup and The Everest up for grabs, then at Randwick the Spring Champion Stakes will give us another look at the Derby favourite.  The group races open at Caulfield with the Thoroughbred Club Stakes (R3, G3, 1200m, Fillies SWP) with Loving Gaby (2) a deserved favourite after a resounding win last start, Sandsation (10) is racing well and might be worth a place ticket.  The Bass Strait Beef Steaks (R4, G3, 1200m, Mares SWP) follows and is an open affair Platinum Angel (11) rarely runs a bad race and could give this a shake.  We then get to the Herbert Power Handicap (R5, G2, 2400m, HCP) which provide the winner a ticket into next week’s Caulfield Cup.  Steel Prince (3) is favourite here and could win, however he doesn’t have to.  Got his Melbourne Cup ticket and winning handicaps now would risk getting a penalty.  Prince of Arran (1) ran third in this race last year before finishing 3^rd in the Melbourne Cup, reckon he a is god chance here.

 

Race 6 – Thousand Guineas (G1, 1600m, Fillies SW)

 

We may have seen the best filly win the Flight last week, but there is still plenty on show here.  Flit (3) is still trying to get out of the jam from her last start, not sure she would have caught Acting (6) but there would not have been much between them.  Lyre (1) is the main threat, Blue Diamond winner and ready for her Grand Final.  No reasonSouthbank (8) can’t continue to improve and Missile Mantra (7) was the fastest closer in the prelude.  Tenley (2)not without a chance.

 

Selections – 1-3-8-7

 

Race 7 – Caulfield Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)

 

Four internationals on the scene adds complexity, however Avilius (5) has proven himself against all the locals and is undefeated at Caulfield so makes picking the winner easy I hope.  Homesman (7) is very consistent at this level and poses the obvious threat.  We got Kings Will Dream on the comeback trail last week, Humidor (3) and Gailo Chop (2) are on similar journeys, with Chop-Chop doing the better.  Rating Dream Castle (9) as the main threat from the raiders with a 2 from 3 first up record.

 

Selections – 5-7-2-9

 

Race 8 – Caulfield Guineas (G1, 1600m, 3YO SW)

 

The Stallion Maker which is unfortunate as we do not see the winner on the track often after this race.  The barrier draw has thrown this wide open with the three favoured horses all drawn to the outside.  Going for M Zahra and Anthony Freedman to double up the Guineas with Super Seth (5) was impeded by a riderless horse in the prelude but still finished off well and is nicely drawn here.  Dalasan (2) is drawn wide but just might be better than them all as is potentially the undefeated Alligator Blood (3).  Roccabascerana (10) will lead for a while and could hang on while will also be watching for Sudebar (7) and Skiddaw (8) to finishing hard with longer journeys to target.

 

Selections – 5-2-3-10

 

Race 9 – Toorak Handicap (G1, 1600m, HCP)

 

Find the winner and the price will be good in a wide open affair.  Looking for one that might have escaped the handicapper sees my top pick not in the field yet in Waging War (20) So we look on.  Amphritite (10) gets another chance for me, won the Thousand Guineas over this journey last year, Princess Jenni (14) is not as nicely drawn but might be something special a win here would confirm it.  Night’s Watch (5) gets JMac and should be ready to peak 3^rd up and will be looking for Widgee Turf (4) to be flying from the back, if it is a closer’s track he could win it. Age of Chivalry (11) is going well just not sure about the mile.

 

Selections – 10-14-5-4

 

The day closes with the Schillaci Stakes (G2, 1100m, WFA) with the winner having the option to run the Everest next week.  Trekking (2) looks well placed to complete a big day for Godolphin with main threats from The Bostonian (3) and Bons Away (8)

 

Back to Randwick

 

The Stan Fox Stakes (R4, G2, 1500m, 3yo SW) opens up the big events, Maher-Eustice have a great strike rate when they head north and have chosen this race for Kooweerup (9) instead of the Thousand Guineas, that’ll do me.  The Roman Consul Stakes (R5,G2, 1200m, 3yo SW) sees a lot of the Coolmore hopefuls stepout, if Microphone (1) runs to his Autumn form he wins.  The Angst Stakes (R6, G3, 1600m, Mares SWP) is always a good race we see Amangiri (8) scratched from another race on the card for this.

 

Race 7 – Spring Champion Stakes (G1. 2000m, 3YO SW)

 

Shadow Hero (2) was breathtaking in the Gloaming and I reckon he has all the vanquished covered here, he will be a very short quote and deservedly so, is already a clear favourite for the Victoria Derby.  Castelvecchio (1) gets out to the journey I have been keen to see him at and might just cause the upset.  Just Thinkin’ (3) and Quick Thinker (4) were genuine in the Gloaming and can fill the holes.

 

Selections – 1-2-3-4

 

The Silver Eagle is not a group status but does lead into the Golden Eagle, it has a great field will be watching to see how well The Inevitable (3) can perform

 

Quaddie Time

 

The middle legs at Caulfield are tough and with Avilius short in the opener we will take him one out.  Could consider adding Homesman also,  The Guineas would be skinny if not for the barrier draw, while the Toorak has many chances.  Coming home skinny on Trekking, The Bostonian  and Bons Away

 

Leg 1 – 5

Leg 2 – 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 10, 18

Leg 3 – 4, 5, 10, 11, 14. 19, 20

Leg 4 – 2, 3, 8

 

168 Combinations a $30 investment will return 18% of the dividend.

 

Go Avilius,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

Our writers are independent contributors. The opinions expressed in their articles are their own. They are not the views, nor do they reflect the views, of Malarkey Publications.

 

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