So I stuffed up again last weekend. Wednesday night I was convinced that with ongoing rain and earlier races around the circle, punting the outside rail was the go for the first of the sprints. Then it stopped raining and they ran the Friday jumpouts “under the roses”. Doh! Don’t bet early.
But I’m not discouraged because a look at this week’s offerings at Caulfield puts a spring in the step. Quite rightly, since P.D.Lawrence appropriated the name for the J.J.Liston, the race has lost some lustre – but this year’s edition (MR7, 1400, WFA, G2) is fascinating. What we can be pretty sure of is that there’ll be pace. The safe bet appears to be Suavito (12) which simply ticks all the boxes.
Other possible bets on an early look are Khutulun in the first and maybe Winta Chiller in the second – nice running double to build a bank (or set a target!). Reckon Hardham is posted overs in early 5th markets.
Good meeting. Worth studying and then reviewing.
Sydney has its trademark dilemma of a time-honoured/odds-on/small field/feature race not managing Quaddy status. Capitalist is in the red for the San Domenico (1100m, 3yo, G3) but no moral. Avoid.
Time to get busy on the formguide.
Good luck!
I think there is a rough chance that Budge will be tipping Suavito so I’ll let him make the case for – I think its a deadset quinella with Mahuta and I’ll play with Trifectas.I’m also very keen on Girl Guide in the 8th.
Adelaide is again an average meeting and hard to find anything I really like outside of Redeem Bounty in the 7th who has a great record on the inner track although appears better with 2 runs under the belt. I thought first up he raced very fresh and strangely wobbled wide on the home turn in a race where the leader was backed off the map and won.
I’ll be at Glenelg oval for the day, hoping they can salvage something from the season by beating Port.
Not a pie fan but would expect massive improvement tonight and have laid dogs at $1.40. Also reckon Crows are unders at $1.09 in Perth. Will be doing some business there.
As expected, I’ll be on Suavito. Think she should be about $3.50 not $5 so happy to go again as she owes me nothing. Olly’s mount and Mahuta the only real dangers but both badly weighted compared to Suavito in this.
Also keen on Conscious in Race 6. The beautiful looking and well named So You Think filly was ultra impressive in her only start last Spring and will win good races. This could be the first of them but she looks a 1000 Guineas type later in her campaign.
Happy to have something each way on Nautical in the Regal Roller. They’ve finally got the key to her in that she needs to have her races spaced and goes great fresh. Overs at the $26 mark.
Actually thought tonight’s game was at MCG which was part of my thinking dogs were a risk. Oh well, let it ride.
There is plenty of upside in losing this bet anyway…
Upside in losing?
Please explain!
Same as if you had something on Port to beat the bays.
The Phil Crowe method does do it for me.
Thought Suavito looked the goods today, risking Mahuta again, also thought Awesome Rock and The Cleaner genuine chances at odds. With very few chances in the race, happy to have multi’s around those 3 and risking Mahuta. Also risking Capitalist at the price today….too short giving some of these 4kg’s and did miss a run.
On the footy front I thought the $1.3 Syd was a bit short at Etihad. NM also some hope against an over rated Hawthorn.
Good luck to all.
Jock, is that the Phil Crowe method gloriously exploited in 1973? Go Bays today.
I am on Ollie in the Vain.
correct.
Roughie- Adelaide race 6 Ixcatan, hard run from a wide alley last time, should hold up behind Classy Jack here and have something to give over the last 50.
Higgo, initially thought the same as you re Swans at Etihad but have since heard they’ve won something like their last 9 games there. Can’t see Hawks losing 2 in a row and North have even more injuries.
Winter Chilla off the map in the 2nd but no good.
Looks like most jockeys want to get on pace today
Click on “replay” to see Conscious first start
https://www.racing.com/form/2016-08-13/caulfield/race/6/#/conscious
Yes Budge, I see Brown is out for North as well…was hoping he’d be passed fit to run.