Almanac Horseracing: Turnbull Stakes Day – Flemington, Saturday 4 October 2025

 

‘Moving day’, as it has been commonly referred to by the racing media this week. TAB Group 1 Turnbull Stakes Day at Flemington, coinciding with a huge Group 1 race day at Randwick in Sydney highlighted by the TAB Epsom Handicap. Two major race meetings that will help determine the paths to be taken for many runners for the remainder of the spring.

 

It’s a big day for Gil McLachlan’s TAB outfit as well.

 

 

TAB Turnbull Stakes, 2000m

 

Race 8, the TAB Turnbull Stakes is a Group 1 race over 2000m run under set weights with penalties conditions, not to be confused with the weight for age scale. Its considered a key race in the lead up to both Cups and the WS Cox Plate, and as such it’s been won by some greats over the years. Dulcify, Vo Rogue, Better Loosen Up, Let’s Elope, Sunline, Winx and most recently Via Sistina who is also the favourite for Saturday’s renewal are included amongst the previous winners. Only two horses have won the race in consecutive years in the last 50 years – Vo Rogue (1987 and 1988) and Winx (2017 and 2018).

 

It’s a great race again and I’m siding with the favourite’s stablemate, 7 Aeliana, this year. Aeliana beat Via Sistina home last start after going down narrowly to her first up the start before. Racing followers have all seen the last start for both horses in the Makybe Diva Stakes and how farcically run the race was so my only concern is whether Aeliana may still need a solid run to bring her to her peak, but this is a Group 1 race and so I’m sure trainer, Chris Waller, and connections are there to win. She’s drawn perfectly in barrier 5 and comes into this race well under the set weights and penalties conditions. She gets 2kg’s off Via Sistina here, as opposed to 0.5kg’s under the weight for age conditions at their last two meetings. Aeliana has a good record at Flemington and was beaten a lip by Broadsiding over 2000m third up last preparation before going on to win the AJC Derby against the colts and geldings at her next start that preparation over 2400m. I’m keen on her, she wins.

 

Hardest to beat will obviously be her stablemate and reigning Australian Racehorse of the Year, 4 Via Sistina. She won this race last year before going on to win the WS Cox Plate and then coming back to win three Group 1 races in the Autumn culminating with her win in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2000m at Randwick. Barrier 1 could make things a little tricky for champion jockey James McDonald, so the first 200m of the race will be very interesting. 3 Sir Delius who is on a WS Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup path can keep the Waller pair honest. His win last start in the Underwood Stakes at Caulfield over 1800m was terrific and he’ll only be better suited now with that run under his belt and the step up to 2000m. Whether he has the sprint to match it with Aeliana and Via Sistiina over 2000m is the question, and I’m putting 6 Half Yours in for fourth. His win last start, albeit in much weaker company, was enormous and Jamie Melham has elected to ride this horse in the Caulfield Cup rather than head to Sydney that day to ride in The Everest, so she obviously has a big opinion of the horse. He’ll no doubt be better suited back to handicap conditions next start in the Caulfield Cup and over 2400m, but he can show up here. I’ll also be keeping an eye on 12 Deakin, he was sneakily good last start, 11 Middle Earth and 2 Land Legend from a Cups point of view.

 

7 Aeliana – 4 Via Sistina – 3 Sir Delius – 6 Half Yours

 

 

Saturday is one of those days where not only connections have to make big decisions, but punters too – my blackbook has a number of runners, with some clashing and to be fair some racing in a grade above, or at a distance short, of where I’d like to be following them. For those on X (formerly Twitter) my blackbookers can be found by checking @DandyAndy_ but tomorrow’s runners include Arcora (r3), On Display (r5), Rosberg, McGaw and Inkaruna (r6), Mormona (r7) and Middle Earth (r8).

 

Arcora is a horse I’m keeping an eye on heading towards the Victoria Derby, but he’ll need to be running on and into the finish tomorrow.

 

A few I’ve tipped here previously in Gilded Water, twice, and Mormona, both in race 7, and Sir Delius in race 8 are going around again tomorrow and sure to give a good sight. My concern with Gilded Water tomorrow is barrier 14 from one of the tightest starts in racing, particularly as he likes to race on speed. He can certainly win again, and I won’t be leaving him out of my quaddie, but even with Revelare in the race I’m happy to stick with Mormona each way again tomorrow at the value. He’s drawn well, appreciates the big track at Flemington and to me is in well at the weights.

 

Best Bet:

 

Flemington, r5 #4 On Display – had no luck last start when looking for a rails run in the straight and was left with nowhere to go except backwards. She won very impressively with 60.5kg’s when first up the start prior. Staying at 1400m is my only query, but this race is no stronger than she met last start when she should have been in the finish and she only has to hold that form to win here.

 

Best Value:

 

Like two tomorrow, r9 #12 Payline and r10 #5 Is It Me.

 

Payline big runs at big odds in Group 1 company at his last two starts and was placed in Group 1 company over 1200m back in mid-May at Doomben. This is a solid Group 2 race, but I think he can get into the finish based on his recent form. My only concern is the Flemington straight and its ‘lanes’, but if being on the outside isn’t a complete disadvantage I’m happy to be on Payline each way.

 

Is It Me is a Flemington horse and 1400m is his sweet spot. He’s dropping back in class here and can bounce back hard. He’s drawn inside which is a slight concern, but Billy Egan rode him to victory at this track and distance from barrier 2 to finish off his last preparation. It’s a good race but I’m happy to be with him each way at the odds.

 

 

Gamble Responsibly. Chances are you’re about to lose.

 

 

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