Almanac Horseracing – Sal’s Preview: First week of the Morphettville Carnival

 

 

Greetings All,

 

So much consternation over the resumption of footy across all codes and all levels.  Plenty of news inches devoted to the logistics of hubs, concerns of family separation and whether that all is required.  The more existential question of how much we need footy?

 

As for the racing tips this piece is clearly more for the read than the inspiration after last week.  Observations from the Sage of the South and family are that tips from this pundit are akin to traffic signals in Vietnam – merely a suggestion.

 

This week we head to the workhorse track of Victorian racing at Sandown – not quite the epicentre but overall the fairest track we race on.  The arctic blast that will associate the meeting might not be so inviting.  The spotlight goes to Adelaide for the first week of their carnival.  Usually these meetings are hidden in the midst of footy furore where ordinary horses get themselves black type credentials with not many watching.  This weekend it is the biggest game in town.  We will take a look at the best suggestions at Sandown and a close look at the features in Adelaide.

 

Morphetttville

 

The frosty and wet conditions put up some challenges with selections especially in Adelaide where a Soft 7 is rarely seen, but the races are on and not much else so let’s dig in.  Could it be third time lucky or a hat trick of being the bridesmaid for Zoushine (R1, #7)?  Could not quite hold on last start but a quieter ride from The Baron might give her a better chance.  Wary of the Victorian raiders #5 and #6.  Happy to stick with The Baron in the next on La Croft (R2, #14) but not much conviction.  The soft ground and the 2kg claim will suit Marina (R3, #11) in a wide affair and always wary of GV Richards these days.  Sopressa (R4, #4) has taken the Adelaide option and looks well suited at a better price Franked (R4, #8) is 2 from 3 over this journey, might be a good each way suggestion.  If the swoopers can run on then Fidelia (R5, #2) could tease us again.  A risk at the price compared to Poysed to Rein (R5, #10) who seems to be over the odds because she is not a Victorian Raider.  Ripper race for the three year sprinters in the Euclase, Garner (R6, #1) is a safe suggestion but lots of chances including #2, #4, #8, #10, #13.

 

Race 6 – Australasian Oaks (G1, 2000m, Fillies SW)

 

My suggestions will need the track to suit the backmarkers and some pace on in a wide-open affair.  Top pick needs to get in the field for us in Realm of Flowers (19) excellent stats on the soft and closing hard last start.  If she doesn’t get a start then suggest Moonlight Maid (3) getting out a trip that will suit.  Vegas Jewel (5) was well fancied last start but didn’t deliver, maybe the money was a run too early?  Silent Sovereign (10) was her conqueror and must be in the mix. If the leaders have the edge Betcha Flying (7) was tough last week against the boys and will take some catching.

 

Suggestions – 19-3-5-10-7

 

Race 7 – Robert Sangster Stales (G1, 1200m, Fillies and Mares WFA)

 

What a ripping renewal!  Maher-Eustice bringing their star 2yo Away Game (16) to compete against the older girls.  When she wins she wins big and she has a victory on the heavy.  Sunlight (1) is the obvious danger has come back well chasing Gytrash, however I think the odds are too short with the quality of competition.  I am more excited about I Am Excited (2) and Savatiano (3) who have been competing at a high level and have good soft track form.  Bam’s on Fire (6) has been just that and good in wet conditions is yet another suggestion.

 

Suggestions – 16-2-3-1

 

We can close out with Jungle Edge (R9, #4), Mitch Bell has looked at the forecast and picked out Adelaide not many better mudders!

 

Quaddie

 

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 4, 8, 13

Leg 2 – 3, 5, 7, 10, 19 (14 if 19 doesn’t get a run)

Leg 3 – 1, 16 (could add 2, 3, 6 to spread it wider)

Leg 4 – 4, 5, 6

 

Sandown

 

A heavy track makes punting treacherous and suggesting more so.  We do see a couple of interesting runners on the card that will be worth following.  For the opener odds-on in a 2yo race on heavy is hard to take – prefer to be on Cornucopia (R1, #5) but would recommend to just finish your lunch.  Duke of Plumpton (R2, #6) is one of the interesting runners, impressive Aussie debut at Echuca and looks up to this, note that the scratched long shot suggestion from last week Pierrocity (R2, #12) is in the runners here.  Next interesting runner is Lunakorn (R3, #2) yet to finish out of the quinella not sure the price is right, Oasis Girl (R3, #4) just might be a better each-way suggestion.  We get another shorty in the next in Too Good Too Hard (R4, #1) gets a 3kg claim and has won twice on soft ground so happy with the suggestion, biggest danger #7.  Hoping to make a kill from The Mockingbird (R5, #7) in the next but a wide open affair with #3 and #6 among the main chances.

 

The Quaddie kicks off with a pretty open affair so it will be a wide leg, to suggest one it would be Salsamor (R6, #4) who is undefeated on heavy tracks.   Suggest that the undefeated Open Minded (R7, #5) is a good option in a race with plenty of other chances.   Mystery Love (R8, #5) heads the suggestions in the next, while Barthelona (R8, #9) gets weight relief and has a good heavy record is worthy of consideration.  The last is a ripper with a pair of progressive imports in Buffalo River (R9, #13) and Harbour Views (R9, #14), the former is a known commodity in the heavy and has a run under his belt so comes up shorter.  There is more for both of these.

 

Quaddie

 

Leg 1 – 3, 4, 11, 12, 14

Leg 2 – 1, 5, 11, 12, 13

Leg 3 – 5, 9, 14

Leg 4 – 13, 14

 

Good Luck,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

Our writers are independent contributors. The opinions expressed in their articles are their own. They are not the views, nor do they reflect the views, of Malarkey Publications.

 

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