Almanac Horseracing – Cup Day Preview: can Valiant King drive us home?

Greetings All,

 

What a fantastic Derby Day, the weather delivered and the Racing Santa delivered! Hope a few of the readers were ‘on’! The group ones delivered.  Tentyris was incredible in the Coolmore, hope he runs in the sprint on Saturday and we can see more of him before he heads to the breeding barn. A perfect ride from Zahra in the Derby on Observer but poor rides from the rest not taking him on. Then the crowd going off when Jenni went for home at her brilliant best. A masterclass from Mark Zahra winning four on the trot each of them in a different manner.  Performs on the big days and rides the toppy in the cup. He did that a couple of years ago on Gold Trip. 

 

Cup Day looks a completely different proposition, with the weather gods showing their nasty streak, a wide open Cup field and a typically difficult undercard. The greatest challenge on the day will be how to stay dry. We will take an indepth look at the cup first followed by the rest of the card. 

 

Flemington

Who knows when the rain will stop or how much we will have? If it stops before the meeting Flemington drains so well we might even be running on a Good 4 by the time the main event runs. However if the rain continues through the program it will continue to deteriorate and the cup will be a last man standing affair.

 

We have few races beforehand to have a look at. We open with a 2YO with mostly first starters and at Group 3 level which is ridiculous, partake if you choose but best to enjoy a coffee or the first beer or bubbles for the day.

 

 

Race 7 – The Melbourne Cup (G1, 3,200m, HCP)

This is a great renewal of the great race.  To some there are limited chances in the race, however remembering Knight’s Choice there has to be plenty. Going through the form looking to knock out the dry trackers there are only two that can be discounted in Chevalier Rose (5) and Onesmoothoperator (16). Onto who can win, Valiant King (24) has been in superb form coming off the Bart and Caulfield Cup. They have been on dry tracks but has won and placed on slow and lightweight gives him a great winning chance. If the king’s horse won the Geelong Cup he would have been in single figures here, Torranzino (23) beat him fair and square on soft ground and is a great chance to do what Surprise Baby couldn’t for Paul Preusker. Prestige Nocturne (6) is a great winning chance but it will be Stefane Pasquier’s first ride at Flemington – would be the pick with a local hoop. The Caulfield Cup form is the best form race and the winner Half Yours (14) is a big chance. Not sure the penalty helps and some question on getting the journey, if it gets the journey can win. The German horse Flatten the Curve (10) is undefeated on turf since moving to the current trainer, they have had specific plan to get here and some chance. Not discounting the toppie Al Riffa (1), gets Zahra and might be the best that has come over. River of Stars (21) has that Caulfield Cup form as does Royal Supremacy (22). C Williams will give Buckaroo (2) a better steer and Furthur (17) might have got one over the handicapper.

 

Selections – 24-23-6-14-10-1-21-22-2-17

 

 

Here is a look at the field

 

#	Runner	Wgt	Br	Age Sex	Jockey	Trainer	Comments
1	Al Riffa	59	19	6H	M Zahra	J O’Brien	Won his last two in Ireland in convincing fashion and might be one of the better credentialled runners to come here. Joseph O’Brien knows what it takes to win the race and loathe to say he can’t. Except history says he can’t, no winner has carried 59kg and even adjusting for the rise in weights this year only Makybe Diva and Think Big have lumped 58kg or more to victory in the metric era. Then again M Zahra piloted Gold Trip to win with 57.5kg and Derby Day proved there is no better pilot. A winning chance on form but would not be diving in to short odds. Has won twice on soft ground, never tested on heavy no reason to discount his chances on rain affected going.
2	Buckaroo	57	12	7G	C Williams	C Waller	Lead up this year as good as last year almost taking out the Cox Plate. Ninth in the race last year from a tough barrier and not the greatest steer from the Magic Man. Gets Craig Williams a cup winning hoop and chased this ride. Goes up a couple of kgs relative to last year. Has the class to win here but concerned that it is an afterthought, then again if he wasn’t ready CJW wouldn’t run him. Wins on soft and heavy tracks, would be suited by precipitation.
3	Arapaho	56.5	15	9G	R King	B Baker	Sydney Cup winners do not have a great record in this race and nine year olds even worse. Eighth in a Bendigo Cup is not really up to this, although last year the winner was sixth in that race. Some chance with a rain affected track.
4	Vauban	56.5	2	8G	B Shinn	Waterhouse/Bott	Eight year olds are not much better and this will be his third crack at the race. Gai and Adrian have put some pep into him anf even won a race in March. Not many first time winners of this race having their third crack, he started favourite in the last two. Reckon the punters have it right this time, capable of running well but doubt he is a winner. He is 6 from 12 on soft so rain certainly brings him into the picture, all of those wins were prior to coming to Australia.
5	Chevalier Rose	55.5	5	8H	D Lane	H Shimizu	Form this year does not look up to this, however a win over 3,600m last November sparks some interest. The Japanese run on hard, dry tracks the rain will dampen his chances.
6	Presage Nocturne	55.5	9	6H	S Pasquier	A Botti	An outstanding run in the Caulfield Cup and has a 2.5kg swing on the winner. Distance should not be an issue and would love a bit of give in the track. Would be on top but would prefer a local jockey on board which drops him down to my third selection. Great record on soft and heavy tracks.
7	Middle Earth	54.5	13	6G	E Brown	C Maher	Won his first race in Australia but has not performed when put up at the top level. M Zahra abandoned him quickly after the Caulfield Cup flop, third last start in the JRA Cup was a better result but a much lower level. Would need a massive improvement to feature here. Has a victory on soft ground but reckon others will be better suited
8	Meydaan	54	22	5G	J McDonald	S & E Crisford	The Crisfords have bought the right horse here before, just had to wait a year and let the Freedmans get Without a Fight to win both cups. If they say this bloke is up to it, then it has to be respected. Not really sure his form before arriving was good enough and the Caulfield Cup run not inspiring. Might need an extended stay and switch of stables for 2026, barrier is not help but then maybe JMac does the trick Wet track form is inconclusive, stable comments don’t inspire confidence.
9	Absurde	53.5	4	8G	K McEvoy	W Mullins	Is it third time lucky? Ran slashing races to finish seventh and then fifth over the last two renewals so must command respect. Was OK in the Caulfield Cup so a good performance would not be absurd, doubt it would be a winning performance. Has a win on heavy over the jumps, rain would not destroy his chances.
10	Flatten the Curve	53.5	17	7G	T Hammer Hansen	H Grewe	Winning form is good form so four from five over the last 12 months can’t be ignored. Wins have not been in big fields but you can only beat the opposition provided. Proven at the trip and capable on any surface except dirt. Could run a big race and my fifth selection. is it Hammer Time? Wins on soft and heavy tracks.
11	Land Legend	53.5	16	6G	J Morieira	C Waller	Capable at his best but current form would make it a similar shock to last year’s winner. Form on wet tracks is moderate.
12	Smokin’ Romans	53.5	11	9G	B Melham	C Maher	Has been a grand performer for Ciaran Maher and will take some catching but age is not on his side and not quite up to this level. Loves getting his toe in so chances increase on a rain affected track
13	Changingoftheguard	53	24	7G	T Clark	K Lees	This is the Williams entrant and they do know how to produce winners of this race. Not far off in the Geelong Cup with a big weight and will appreciate the relief. Form does not quite look good enough for this, but then again netiher did Knight’s Choice last year. Reasonable form in the wet but suspect others are better.
14	Half Yours	53	8	5G	J Melham	T & C McEvoy	No better form race than the Caulfield Cup and his win was full of merit. Gets a 2kg penalty for the win but still looks well in here. Has been up for a long time and continues to perform. Some question about getting the distance but has met every challenge so far. My fourth place selection. Rain would only improve the stable’s confidence
15	More Felons	53	23	7G	T Berry	C Waller	Ran well in the Metropolitan and St Leger in Sydney but has plenty of other convictions. Has not won a race for a long time. Does have a couple of wins on soft tracks but they were also long ago.
16	Onesmoothoperator	53	6	8G	H Coffey	B Ellison	Came off average European form to win the MV Gold Cup in similar fashion to his Geelong Cup win in 2024. Finshed midfield in last year’s race and suspect a similar result this year. One smooth dry tracker.
17	Furthur	52	7	4H	M Dee	A Balding	Has this one beaten the handicapper? Has pretty good form while sixth of seven in the St Leger he was still going well at the end. One of the chances. While placed on a heavy, recent failure was on soft. Better chance if dry.
18	Parchment Party	52	3	5H	J Velazquez	W Mott	Got the golden ticket by winning the Belmont Gold Cup. The race was to be a Group 1 on turf over two miles, an hour before race was scheduled a deluge hit. It was downgraded to a group 3, reduced to 14 furlongs and moved to the dirt track! He is a specialist on dirt and would be shocked if he won here. The dirt he won on was more akin to mud!
19	Athabascan	51.5	1	7G	D Bates	J O’Shea T Charlton	Ran well in the MV Gold Cup and gets plenty of weight relief. A consistent performer in those second level staying events but doubt he has the class to win here. Any moisture in the track would be to his benefit
20	Goody Two Shoes	51.5	20	7M	W Lordan	J O’Brien	Is this mare in the class required? Would not have thought so but the trainer does know what he is doing. Has a couple of wins on soft, but record much better on top of the ground
21	River of Stars	51.5	14	7M	B Mertens	C Waller	Slashing second in the Caulfield Cup and third in the Sydney Cup, the further the better for this girl. Takes a very good mare to win this race not sure she is up to Verry Elleegant, Makybe Diva, or Ethereal standard but could run a very good race. Placed 50% in rain affected going, but yet to win
22	Royal Supremacy	51	21	5G	R Dolan	C Maher	Macdougal was the last Metropolitan winner to go on and win the Melbourne Cup in 1959. This bloke has some chance after a great fifth in the Caulfield Cup and on the minimum weight. Has the polish of C Maher and last year’s winning jockey on board. Has a good record in wet conditions.
23	Torranzino	51	18	6G	C Gaudray	P Preusker	The Western Districts will be cheering him on, got his ticket in with a great win in the Geelong Cup. That was after a slashing second in the Bart! In form, a lightweight chance and my second Selection. Has solid form on wet ground
24	Valiant King	51	10	6G	J McNeil	C Waller	Has exploded this spring winning the Bart and placing in the Caulfield Cup, that is great form for this. Got a ticket in with no penalty and can win this provided there is plenty of pace on. My Top Selection. Form on rain affected ground is sound

 

 

Quaddie

Always tough on Cup Day, we will take a wide Cup quaddie and skinny late.  The another with the best cup hopes plus a bit wider late.

 

Quaddie 1 – Fat Cup

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 14. 15, 17, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24

Leg 2 – 2, 5, 8

Leg 3 – 15

Leg 4 – 7. 8

 

96 Combinations, a $20 winning investment will return 22.9% of the dividend.

 

Quaddie 2 – Skinny Cup

 

Leg 1 – 1, 6, 10, 14. 23, 24

Leg 2 – 2, 5, 8, 15

Leg 3 – 11, 14, 15

Leg 4 – 3, 7. 8

 

216 Combinations, a $30 winning investment will return 13.5% of the dividend.

 

 

Race 2 – Grand Handicap (BM80, 2,000m, HCP)

The favourite Makdane (3) looks well placed here and handy in the wet. It looks wide open otherwise, so rating Navy King (4), Nearing Liberty (9) and Hot Too Go (12) to also run well.

 

Selections – 3-9-12-4

 

 

Race 3 – The TAB Trophy (Listed, 1,800m, 3YO SWP)

Interesting runner here in Luna Bay (9) scratched from the Wakeful for this might be worth the gamble. Different Gravy (4) gets the M Zahra polish and B Shinn will be keen to get on the scoreboard too on Champagne Hero (3). Obvious (2) might not seem so but has good wet form.

 

Selections – 14-4-3-2

 

 

Race 4 – The Schweppervescence Plate (1,000m, 3YO SWP)

JMac’s first ride for the carnival can he open with a bang?  Pallaton (2) has a good Sydney record and looks well placed here. Main dangers are the Zahra and Shinn mounts in Street Artist (4) and Aleppo Pine (1). The other Hayes runner That’smoneybrother (8) might be assisted with the wide draw.

 

Selections – 2-4-1-8

 

 

Race 5 – Australian Heritage Cup (BM96, 2,800m, HCP)

Not much between the top two in the market but favouring Golden Century (10) over Litzdeel (9) purely on its better form on wet ground.  Don Diego De Vega (3) was hoping to get a run in the cup and gets a chance here and Haaland (17) being ridden by Lucinda Boyd who also trains him is very consistent.

 

Selections – 10-9-3-17

 

 

Race 6 – Kirin Ichiban Plate (Listed, 1,800m, HCP)

Recent form does not inspire confidence but the wet weather brings Major Beel (4) right into this. No better front running pilot than T Clark, he presents great value. Not much between the next three in Apulia (2), Kingswood (3) and Saint George (5).

 

Selections – 4-5-3-2

 

 

Race 8 – The Amanda Elliott (Listed, 1,400m, 3YO HCP)

Not sure the previous chair is worthy of having a race in the carnival named after her. But it is a race and there will be a winner; finding it will be tough. Safe to go with the Maher/McDonald combination on Navy Pilot (2) who ran well in the Guineas.  Burma Star (8) looks well weighted and will relish the wet as does Vega for Luck (5) only one win but on a heavy track. Can’t ignore Ludlum (15), a relative newcomer and good record so far.

 

Selections – 2-8-5-15

 

 

Race 9 – Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (G3, 1,400m, 4YO+ Mares SWP)

Hard to go past Surfin’ Bird (15) here a great record and will be tough to beat. Keep Your Cool (11) will keep her honest and proven on wet ground and if they over do it then Pondalowie (14) will be steaming home. The best of She’s Got Pizzazz (2) is good enough but needs to elevate from recent performances.

 

Selections – 15-11-14-2

 

 

Race 10 – Channel 9 Trophy (BM 90, 1,400m, HCP)

Sabaj (8) looks better placed than last start, gets Zahra and should go well but untried on wet. Main threat has a similar question in Sunshine in My Pocket (7). N’dola (3) was scratched on Saturday for this and He’ll Rip (14) might get conditions in his favour.

 

Selections – 8-7-3-14

 

 

Thursday

 

Race 8 – VRC Oaks (G1, 2,500m, 3YO Fillies SW)

Reckon we might see the same exacta from the Wakeful with Getta a Good Feeling (1) to give M Zahra another Group 1 win and Danny O’Brien another Oaks. If she doesn’t get the distance then there is not much doubt that Strictly Business (7) will. The Pearls (2) was terrific against the boys in the Spring Champion. Waller/McDonald is a handy combination so will be right in this. Spicy Lu (3) got Nash on last start and delivered, he stays aboard and should be competitive.

 

Selections – 1-7-2-3

 

 

An omen running double for the motor enthusiasts on Cup Day MR6-3 Kingswood into MR7-24 Valiant King

 

Be Valiant!  Have a great cup day.

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

 

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