Almanac Horse Racing: Sal’s Preview – Final Day Preview: Need a Big Last Quarter

 

Greetings All,

 

Welcome to the final edition for 2024.  It’s been a big year with the heir taking a bride, the trip of a lifetime around Southern Europe and the Olympics plus the Brisbane premiership and finally a spring carnival blessed by fine weather but tough on the punt.  Certainly, hope everyone has enjoyed, considered, and even disagreed with the musings put forward every week and look forward to a return in 2025, Carlton’s next premiership year!

 

The Flemington Carnival has the punters reeling after three days with some reprieve given in The Oaks so looking for a big final quarter to close out.  Then again it might have been easy to be in front by simply following JMac who has once again lit up Flemington.  The Melbourne Cup might not have delivered to the punters, but the great race was a beauty and after lamenting the dominance of the mega stables, the winner pops up from one of the smaller operations represented.  They certainly had the experience to know what it takes, and Robbie Dolan was on song with one of the Rides of the Century on Knight’s Choice.

 

We move on to the finale with three top class events over 1200, 1600 and 2000m respectively.  Again, we expect fine weather and good track, with 28 races already gone expect some wear on the track so riders might look to get off the fence later in the program.  As we have seen on all three days as the track has dried out and got firmer it has been difficult to make ground from the back of the field, but if they have been good enough, they win.

 

 

Flemington

 

Rolling the dice in the opener with Anahita (R1, #7) has to improve from last start and a test out to the mile but trusting the CJW/JMac combination to get it done.  It should be beer and sandwich time for Race 2 for the babies, maybe the race experience for Bubion (R2, #5) gives it a good chance.

 

Race 3 – Queen Elizabeth Stakes (G3, 2600m, HCP)

 

Our Lizzie used to be the consolation cup for Melbourne Cuppers on the back up, even the great Might and Backed up in year he won the cup to win this race.  We have also seen it used as a trial for future cup horses, none more famous than Makybe Diva who won this race 2002 before going on to salute in the next three cups.  It is also a consolation for those that did make the cut in the cup and Kinesiology (7) fits the bill here.  Unraced in Australia of some concern but we have seen CJW produce a good one here to open their account in Soulcombe in 2022, who arguably should have won the cup last year.  The Bendigo cup delivered the winner of the Melbourne Cup, and the placegetters are engaged here in Berkeley Square (2) and Star Vega (8), hard to split but just favouring the latter.  Serpentine (1) gets the best rider on board, can control the tempo to scoot away and win?  Suspect the weight might the burden and always wary of the old boy Amade (3) in these races and gets the track to suit.

 

Selections – 7-8-2-1

 

The Griffith/de Kock stable had Verdad run his fifth consecutive second place on Oaks Day, their sprinter Rey Magnerio (R4, #4) is going for the hat trick of them.  On the back up from last week, gets the wide draw down the straight reckon he can go one better.

 

Race 5 – Matriarch Stakes (G2, 2000m, Mares SWP)

 

Diving into short odds for the favourite seems unhinged, Hinged (7) has been burning punters for over 2½ years.  In her defence she is usually running on good races this is a good race but not sure it is a vintage renewal.  JMac back on board.  Reckon the expanses of Flemington will suit another of Waller’s pack in Firestorm (14) gets D Lane aboard and had very little room or luck at the Valley.  Quickster (6) beat home Hinged (7) last start so must be in consideration but also in a winning drought as is Little Mix (9) noting though her last win was on Oaks Day last year over the same course.

 

Selections – 14-6-7-9

 

Race 6 – Champions Sprint (G1, 1200m, WFA)

 

It is a big step up for Bellatrix Star (12) but she is well worth the gamble here at double figure odds.  She beat home the 3^rd and 4^th placegetters in the Everest in last weeks Coolmore and they were not too far away from Bella Nipotina (5) and Giga Kick (1) in the Everest.  Great chance for both of those Bella just keeps on winning, has the outside draw but has not wone here.  Giga was aimed at this race straight after the Everest.  Overpass (2) wins big races so can’t be ignored while Sunshine in Paris (6) runs well in the best of company and has JMac aboard.  (Suspect she will be the bride’s omen bet!)

 

Selections – 12-1-5-6

 

Race 7 – Champions Mile (G1, 1600m, WFA)

 

With so many avoiding Via Sistina in the next this race is a cracker!  So many chances and how is it run with a new hoop for Pride of Jenni (9) in Ben Melham.  While she las lost her last two I don’t think the rides were at fault in either, she should never have run in the King Charles and reckon that flattened her in the Cox Plate.  Will Melham be able to get the tempo right first time up.  Great if he can but reckon there are at least 6 other winning chances!  Mr Brightside (1) gets back to the Flemington Mile, capable on dry but prefers a bit of give in the track.  Antino (4) ticked off the Group 1 in the Toorak, WFA is another step up but has been competitive at the level.  Another Wil (6) also steps up to WFA but has always looked like being capable at the level, runs on speed and undefeated at Flemington.  Fangirl (10) the drier the better, JMac riding, nice draw could run over the top of them.  Amelia’s Jewel (11) couldn’t hold off Atishu last week but likes the track and looks back in form.  Broadsiding (13) if he is as good as Anamoe he wins this, not sure he is quite to that level but still very competitive suspect he will be well suited to Flemington.  So tough to pick so going with the value.

 

Selections – 6-9-13-10

 

 

Race 8 – Champions Stakes (G1, 2000m, WFA)

 

As they have run away is this just a gimme for Via Sistina (10).  It is if she produces anything close to her Cox Plate run and she is a winner over this journey in the Turnbull.  It will be a dry surface to her liking.  The main question is whether we need any more in the quaddie?  The big unknown is last years cup winner returning from a break, good at the distance and a winner here.  Doubt Freedman’s would be running if they didn’t think he could win, there are no other targets for him this spring.  Atishu (11) blew them away in the in the Empire Rose and has a sniff here.  Elyass (6) was not far from the favourite in the Turnbull and looks better suited here than he was for the Caulfield Cup.

 

Selections – 10-1-11-6

 

Gee I love the programming of a charge down the straight as the last leg of the quaddie, NOT!  Reckon JMac can close out the carnival with a win on Pisanello (10), drawn inside but he was able to win the Red Roses on Oaks Day from there finding the right part of the track and can do it again.

 

Quaddie

 

It’ll be a two quaddie strategy with the majority stake on Via Sistina one out and then another with a couple more in case she is off her game.

Via, Via

 

Leg 1 – 1, 2, 5, 6, 12

Leg 2 – 1, 4, 6, 9, 10, 11, 13

Leg 3 – 10

Leg 4 – 10, 12, 14

 

105 Combinations, $30 investment returns, 28% of the dividend

 

Just in case – add 1, 6, 11 to the 3^rd leg – 420 combinations, $10 investment returns 4.8% of the dividend.

 

Signing off for 2024!  Wishing everyone a fabulous final day and holiday season and may your footy team perform in 2025, but just not as good as mine!

 

Viva la Via,

 

Cheers, Sal

 

 

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