Oz Footy List Manager now takes a look at conclusions based on its previews.
There are some factors that are outside the parameters of list management. I won’t include injuries because good list management accounts and compensates for injuries.
Two of these factors are as follows:
1. Culture – the underlying feelings, emotions and confidence in a club. (“Fish rots from the head down.”)
2. Fixture biases – A team’s previous season finish can affect its next season draw, eg. Melbourne has an easier draw in 2025 than in 2023 & 2024. Hawthorn will have a harder draw given its finals position last season. Brisbane should and does have the hardest draw, but they’ve dealt with that already over the last few seasons. Exception: Richmond should have an easier draw but doesn’t.
With that in mind, my expected ladder is as follows.
Summary:
Gold finishers (1st to 4th): Brisbane, Port, Geelong & Sydney
Silver finishers (5th to 7th): Fremantle, Hawthorn, Western B.
Bronze finishers (8th to 10th): Collingwood, Carlton, GWS
Improvers (11th): Adelaide
Also-rans (12th to 15th): Essendon, Gold Coast, St Kilda & Melbourne
Rebuilding (16th to 17th): North Melbourne, West Coast
Nadir / Very-rebuilding (18th): Richmond (We’ve been there before and risen…)
You can follow all the 2025 list updates here – https://www.ozfootylistmanager.com/2025-lists-new.html
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It was 25 years ago that I began developing a model for analysing footy squad lists for the purpose of improving those lists into a premiership window. Since then, the model has been used to successfully predict premiership clubs and to improve either lop-sided or underdeveloped lists into premiership lists. Indeed, the model was used for an article that I had published as a double page spread in The Age 2005 Pre-Season magazine.
Over the 25 years, I have analysed the annual lists of one particular club but have used it for other clubs upon request. It has always been on my bucket list to display the lists of all the clubs, using the model, which I’ve done since 2021 on my website – OzFootyListManager.com
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