Almanac Footy: Qualifying For Finals Success

 

Both Melbourne and Port Adelaide were ‘bundled out in straight sets’ in Week 2 of the finals this year, clogging the SEN/5AA airwaves with plenty of suggestions about what both of these clubs have ‘done wrong’. The only way to lose two finals in a row is to finish the home and away season in the top four, so it could be argued that you have to be a good side to do so, an argument that may not wash with the supporters of those clubs.

I thought I’d see how many times the Qualifying Final winners have not made the Grand Final since 2000 (i.e. since the introduction of the Final 8 in its current format). This situation represents a special sort of heartache as those clubs would have gone into the Prelim with very high expectations. In Richmond’s 2018 case, it can deliver supporters with a big dose of the ‘if-onlys’, given the Tiges’ wins in 2017, 2019 and 2020.

Of the 46 QF winners from 2000-2022, only 11 of them have missed out on a spot in the Grand Final, as highlighted in red below. Only Port Adelaide has the misfortune to do this twice.

There was a run from 2007-2014 where all winning QF clubs also won their respective Prelim Finals. Since the introduction of the pre-finals bye in 2016, half of the QF winners have bowed out in their next match. Rohan Connolly in this piece has cited this as a reason against the pre-finals bye.

I note also that during the period under examination, no club has won from 4th, 5th, 6th or 8th. Apart from the Bulldogs’ unprecedented 2016 success, the winners’ home and away placings were 1st – 8 times, 2nd – 7 times, 3rd – 7 times.

Will 2023’s Collingwood and/or Brisbane be added to this table in red ink? We will know on Saturday evening.

 

 

Year	QF Winners		Grand Finalists	Premier’s H&A Finish
2000	Essendon	Melbourne	Ess def Mel	1
2001	Essendon	Brisbane	Bris def Ess	2
2002	Collingwood	Brisbane	Bris def Coll	2
2003	Collingwood	Sydney	Bris def Coll	3
2004	Brisbane	Port Adelaide	Port def Bris	1
2005	West Coast	St Kilda	Syd def WC	3
2006	Adelaide	Sydney	WC def Syd	1
2007	Port Adelaide	Geelong	Geel def Port	1
2008	Hawthorn	Geelong	Haw def Geel	2
2009	Geelong	St Kilda	Geel def St K	2
2010	St Kilda	Collingwood	Coll def St K	1
2011	Geelong	Collingwood	Geel def Coll	2
2012	Hawthorn	Sydney	Syd def Haw	3
2013	Hawthorn	Fremantle	Haw def Fre	1
2014	Hawthorn	Sydney	Haw def Syd	2
2015	West Coast	Fremantle	Haw def WC	3
2016	Geelong	GWS	WB def Syd	7
2017	Adelaide	Richmond	Rich def Adel	3
2018	Richmond	West Coast	WC def Coll	2
2019	Collingwood	Richmond	Rich def GWS	3
2020	Port Adelaide	Brisbane	Rich def Geel	3
2021	Port Adelaide	Melbourne	Melb def WB	1
2022	Sydney	Geelong	Geel def Syd	1
2023	Collingwood	Brisbane	??????????	?

 

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