After a shock loss to the Tigers in Round 3, the Swans went on a ten-game winning streak and looked virtually unbeatable at times. Many experts said they had the flag in the bag.
But a worrying sign emerged in Round 9. Their big win over the Dockers pushed their percentage to 151.9. The next week it was up to 154.7 and alarm bells were ringing in my head. Fortunately a percentage-dropping win of 14-points over the Dogs began to ease the pressure and, at the time of writing, (after Round 17 and back-to-back losses) it has settled at a healthy 140.8. Phew.
Why the worry (for those who want to see a Swans flag in 2024)? Well, recent history (I’m going back as far as 1995 when the final 8 system began) tells us that having a percentage over 160 at the end of the regular season prevents a team from winning the premiership. I call it the Icarus Effect. The Bombers narrowly avoided this fate in 2000 with a season ending 159.1 and the Cats finished 2007 with 152.8. Both teams went on to win the flag but Essendon needed that late season loss to the Dogs to keep their percentage under 160. The Hawks won in 2015 with a percentage of 158.4 despite finishing only third on the ladder.
The obvious ones which need to be highlighted are Geelong in 2008 (161.8) and Collingwood in 2011 (167.7). Both teams made the Grand Final but were overrun. The Magpies lost in 2011 to the Cats whose percentage was 157.4 that year.
One other case needs to be mentioned: Adelaide in 2006. Their end of season percentage was 142.1 but it did rise as high as 172.4 after Round 16. Then they got smashed by the Eagles the next week and ended up losing a Preliminary Final to the same team.
With a top two spot virtually sewn up, John Longmire can rest easy knowing that his team’s percentage won’t exceed the Icarus limit.
Now, what about the Blues? It was tough going for those of us who endured Carlton fans in the 1968 through to 1995 years. We’ve had some respite since then, but a Carlton flag could bring back all those painful memories.
Carlton CEO Brian Cook stated in 2022 that the Blues wanted to win games but needed to do it with respect and humility. If Cook is true to his word, I suspect he won’t let the Blues win a flag until the ‘respect and humility’ part has been ticked off. This should keep us Blues-a-phobic people safe for another 100 years or so.
Warning: fiction appears from now on.
I have been asked about the best eating places to go to when travelling interstate to watch the footy. For those coming to Melbourne, Luigis on Lygon is the go. Mario and Giuseppe will look after you well.
In Adelaide, it’s Rembrandts on Rundle. Hans and Fritz will give you that dining experience that is the essence of Adelaide.
As for Perth, I haven’t been to any restaurants there. So I’ll have to go on what the locals keep raving about. They can’t stop talking about it: Shooting on Goal. It must be good. Check it out!
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About Doug Long
Doug Long landed the best job ever in the late 1960s - doing the footy scoreboard at Nyah. Six hours glorious work for $1.50 in his pocket. Now he writes for the Northern Football Netball League for free.
Doug,
We are entrusting your lot with the most important job in football. Do not let us down. The most arrogant mob this side of the Young Liberals are poised, poised I say, to snatch the flag away from your folks.
Does anyone remember 1995? The Professor Fates of football bought the flag and then anointed themselves as Team of the Century!
In 1999 they rorted the system to play another grand final but sadly for them North were too strong…
The Sydney Swans have their demons, not the least was the effort in the grand final two years ago. They have a chance for redemption, take it, it rarely comes along – Essendon ’84, Hawthorn ’86, Carlton ’87, Eagles 2018.
it’s rare that a team puts in a shocker and then comes back to win one, usually they do an Adelaide and go down the gurgler, but it is your chance!
Swannies did their best to kill their flag chances this weekend Doug,
Yes, the odd loss by my Swans is advantageous. Will we rest players over coming weeks given we are almost assured of a Top 2 finish? Flirting with form can be dangerous, though freshening up players is sensible.
I’m actually a Cats fan and have painful memories of 1995, George. Hayden Kennedy said he cried for 30 minutes when he found out he would umpire that grand final. When I heard that news I cried for 45 minutes. What a horrible grand final day. Eventually got over it thanks to my therapist Pyscho Anna Liszt. My main interest this year is for the Blues NOT to win the flag. Otherwise, more therapy may be required. GO SWANS (and CATS)!