Almanac Footy: Geelong 2025 Season Preview
Oz Footy List Manager now takes a look at Geelong.
List:
Slow change is happening at Geelong – evolution, rather than revolution.
It is quite clear this season that the Geelong list is moving downwards in age. Although they retain the same core handful, there are many young players around them. The list has shed the aged Hawkins, Tuohy, and Rohan. Also, the mature Furphy and Hardie, neither of whom had made it.
One of the more unfortunate losses was Brandan Parfitt, 26yo, an okay last season, but below his 2021-22 peak.
One to watch is the 21yo, Lawson Humphries, as well as last season’s up-and-comer Ollie Dempsey.
As a list, Geelong look very competitive in 2025, as long as their twilighters can maintain their intensity.
Select 22:
As you would expect with a stable team, Geelong’s core picks itself.
Neale has already succeeded Hawkins as a key forward last year. Conway has now shown himself ready to play first ruck, supported by the twilighter Stanley. The team has plenty of midfield rotations with Dangerfield, Bruhn, Holmes, Atkins, Z.Guthrie, Bowes, Humphries, Dempsey and Miers able to share time in the centre.
Players who have missed with injury last season – Cam Guthrie, Bews, and others – will have to fight their way in.
Things look good at Geelong, as said, as long as their twilighters can maintain their intensity.
B: Holmes, De Koning, Kolodjashnij
HB: J.Henry, Stewart, Z.Guthrie
C: Bowes, Bruhn, Duncan
HF: Mannagh, Cameron, O.Henry
F: Close, Neale, Stengle
R: Conway, Dangerfield, Atkins
I: Humphries, Stanley, Miers, Dempsey
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About
It was 25 years ago that I began developing a model for analysing footy squad lists for the purpose of improving those lists into a premiership window. Since then, the model has been used to successfully predict premiership clubs and to improve either lop-sided or underdeveloped lists into premiership lists. Indeed, the model was used for an article that I had published as a double page spread in The Age 2005 Pre-Season magazine. Over the 25 years, I have analysed the annual lists of one particular club but have used it for other clubs upon request. It has always been on my bucket list to display the lists of all the clubs, using the model, which I've done since 2021 on my website - OzFootyListManager.com
Gotta slot Bailey Smith is too Micky.
Agree with Dips. Otherwise it isn’t far off.
RDL
Yes, just read that Bailey Smith is now in full training., so he can be included.
The main problem is where to play him.
At the Bulldogs, he played off a half back flank, but I think he was mis-positioned there.
His career stats may be a first indicator – his intercepting and marking stats are poor relative to other defenders.
His 2023 stats show the same thing. His Metres Gained stats are good, indicating he may be better as a either an outside midfielder. Although not generally played at the Bulldogs as an inside midfielder, his clearance stats are pretty good.
So, I’d put Bailey Smith on a wing, and make him one of the inside midfield rotations, with the view of developing him as a full-time inside midfielder.
Don’t think we’ll see Holmes in the back pocket. Atkins might retreat back there. I like the idea of Smith and Holmes swapping in and out of the guts from a wing.
The good news is that there is a selection squeeze!!
The key to being a good defender is the ability to be good overhead – intercepting then rebounding.
Holmes has far superior above the shoulders game than Atkins. In fact, Atkins intercepting game is poor.
The 6 best interceptors for Geelong last season were, in order:
Stewart, Z.Guthrie, J.Henry, Kolodjashnij, Holmes, De Koning.
The 6 best rebounders were:
Stewart, Z.Guthrie, Tuohy, Duncan, Holmes, Kolodjashnij
To me, if the Geelong defence is at its best, it must include all of Stewart, Z.Guthrie, Holmes, Kolodjashnij and two others.
Good point Micky. But we rob Peter to pay Paul with Holmes in the back pocket. Back flank probably but the opposition would just play through any other forward except his opponent and lock him out of the game if he sat back there.
We need his pace around the ball or coming off the HBF.
Max Holmes just won a Best & Fairest as an onballer, he wont be playing back pocket
On reflection, there is only one place for Holmes and that place is in the centre.
To recast the 22 (23):
B: Z.Guthrie, De Koning, Kolodjashnij
HB: J.Henry, Stewart, Bowes
C: B.Smith, Holmes, Duncan
HF: Mannagh, Cameron, O.Henry
F: Close, Neale, Stengle
R: Conway, Dangerfield, Bruhn
I: Humphries, Stanley, Miers, Dempsey, Atkins