Oz Footy List Manager now takes a look at Collingwood.
List:
There is a difference between a club that won a premiership two seasons ago and missed out last year, as against a team that hasn’t won a premiership in 20 years and is suffering from the salary cap. However, both Collingwood and Carlton share in common very mature lists, i.e., relying on a large pool of ‘twilighters’. Missing last season’s finals was an unexpected blow. Why?
There are two big gaps in the Collingwood list. Firstly, its lack of mature and developing smaller-mediums (181-185cms) who make up the bulk of the midfield and outside run. Secondly, they rely heavily on their overly-mature genuine talls, with little support.
One might guess that the leadership at Collingwood reckon they will have one last hit at a premiership this season. However, if they fail in the attempt, logic would infer that the rebuild will begin.
McCrae has worked on getting the most out of his elderly list through rotations. Elliott, Mitchell, De Goey, Markov, Mihocek, McStay and Frampton, all twilighters, played less than 16 games each last season. McCrae will need to do it again, as injuries only increase as players age over 30.
I just wish to make special mention of John Noble leaving Collingwood. Never, or nearly never, have I seen a club underrate or treat a player so disrespectfully as Collingwood treated Noble. He should’ve been in the 2021 premiership team. Moreover, he is still 27yo and younger than lesser players. Also, why the aging Membrey? They have heaps of goal-kickers – good younger ones too.
Select 22:
As said, there are quite a few non-core players picked, due to their rotations from last year. McStay, De Goey, Mihocek, Elliott, and Mitchell all had good per game averages, but didn’t play in enough of them. Also, due to gaps, the team still relies on ‘twilighters’ – Pendlebury, Hoskin-Elliott and, possibly, Sidebottom – who each may be playing their last season. Hoskin-Elliott just gets in before the young Harrison.
A positive is young Dean whose per game interception stats shone like Blight’s of Richmond. Yet, why did they drop Dean back to a rookie? I prefer Dean’s improving stats to that of the declining Howe. Contract expiry dates are most probably the key.
Perryman and Houston merely replace the retired Murphy and the unfortunate Noble, rather than adding something extra.
Yes, this season could be a tipping point for the Pies.
B: Quaynor, Moore, Perryman
HB: Maynard, Dean, Houston
C: J.Daicos, Pendlebury, Lipinski
HF: De Goey, McStay, McInnes
F: Schulz, Mihocek, Elliott
R: Cameron, Crisp, N.Daicos
I: Mitchell, Hoskin-Elliott, Cox, Hill
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About
It was 25 years ago that I began developing a model for analysing footy squad lists for the purpose of improving those lists into a premiership window. Since then, the model has been used to successfully predict premiership clubs and to improve either lop-sided or underdeveloped lists into premiership lists. Indeed, the model was used for an article that I had published as a double page spread in The Age 2005 Pre-Season magazine. Over the 25 years, I have analysed the annual lists of one particular club but have used it for other clubs upon request. It has always been on my bucket list to display the lists of all the clubs, using the model, which I've done since 2021 on my website - OzFootyListManager.com
Why is Perryman in the backline when he was recruited as a midfielder with the intention of replacing Mitchell in the middle, if any thing happens to him, and it looks like it has. Collingwood has a plethora of half back flankers, including J.Daicos, Markov, Quaynor, Jiath, Howe, de Mattea and J.Ryan. Add to this the abundance of small forwards and it would surely show that the side is not short on medium sized players. Why is Mcinnes on a half forward flank when the team is trialing him as a backman. Allan is probably a better wing proposition than Lipinski and he’s young. If half of Brisbane or Geelong was injured including their two key forwards then you would expect a similar plummet. I agree that they played far worse this year than last but given that they were 2 dodgy umpire calls away from playing finals, this season is a learning experience, and may be a springboard for next year.
Hi George, thank you for you comments. I’ll deal with each one by one.
1. Perryman – whatever intention the Collingwood leadership has, Perryman’s best football is as a defender. Last season, he averaged over 5 intercepts and over 4 rebounds. That would make him the 4th best interceptor and 3rd best rebounder at Collingwood. Given the loss of Murphy, the aging Howe, the exit of Noble, and lesser defenders, that’s where Perryman can best help his new team.
2. McInees – averaged one and a half goals a game, and was third on the Collingwood per game goal average behind Mihicek and McStay. He had a better goal average than Elliott, Hill and Schulz. At 194cm and 90kg, and 22yo, McInnes is primed to be developed as their next key forward. Why play someone who can kick goals in the back half?
3. Lipinski / Allan – it was a marginal decision, with Lipinski having marginally the better metres gained over 23 games, versus Allan having a lesser metres gained over just 2 games. Lipinski is still 26yo, and the stats prefer him over Allan at this stage.
4. Injury / age – older sides have more injuries. To me, it was no coincidence that Cox (33), Mitchell (31), Mihocek (31), McStay (29) spent significant time last season injured.
Hopefully, for Collingwood, and in my case for McCrae’s sake, last season will be a learning experience, but it can or might be a tipping point too.